Evaluating the effect of expert elicitation techniques on population status assessment in the face of large uncertainty

Moore, J. F.; Martin, Julien; Waddle, J. Hardin; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Fleming, Jill; Bohnett, Eve; Akre, Thomas S.; Brown, Donald J.; Jones, Michael T.; Meck, Jessica R; Oxenrider, Kevin J.; Tur, Anthony; Willey, Lisabeth L.; Johnson, Fred A.

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114453

Cited by 7 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…To parameterize the model, we included all parameter outputs from Program MARK that were modeled as part of this study. For any parameter estimates that we were unable to obtain from our own data, we instead used the estimates aggregated from the published wood turtle literature in Moore et al (2022).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Estimates of annual survival of hatchling and juvenile age classes were taken from the reported average population for a typical year produced by Moore et al (2022). Estimates of apparent annual subadult and adult survival were taken from Program MARK.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…— We performed a sensitivity analysis to illustrate the impacts of slight perturbations to selected demographic rates on population persistence. We analyzed all demographic rates that we took from Moore et al (2022) and those that we hypothesized would have the greatest impact on population viability if conservation strategies (e.g., caging of nests and head-starting) were used to manage this population. In addition, we also produced a model where we increased survival across age classes to create target survival estimates that would result in a stable population.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Maine, it is listed as a species of special concern and is a priority 1 species of greatest conservation need in the latest Maine State Wildlife Action Plan (Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife 2015). Recent models incorporating empirical data suggest that there is a slight to moderate decline for this species range-wide (Moore et al 2022).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Demography and Viability of a Central Maine Population of Wood Turtles (Glyptemys insculpta)

Chatfield

LeClair

Howell

et al. 2023

Chelonian Conservation and Biology

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The wood turtle (Glyptemys insculpta) is experiencing widespread declines throughout its range in the eastern United States and Canada. Maine has been considered a stronghold for the species due to an abundance of suitable upland and stream habitat. Furthermore, recent studies have identified Maine as a potentially important climate refuge for wood turtles. Using data collected in a 5-yr capture-mark-recapture study on a wood turtle population in central Maine, we estimate population size, apparent survival rates, population growth rates, and population viability. We also performed a sensitivity analysis to illustrate the impacts of slight perturbations to demographic rates. Our estimated total population size is 73 (95% CI = 69-85) individuals. Annual apparent survival varied across years, ranging from 80.5% to 97.5%, with females having a slightly higher survival at 94.9% (95% CI = 81.6%-97.8%) than males at 92.8% (95% CI = 77.6%-97.4%). The baseline population viability analysis model predicted a k of 0.93 (95% CI = 0.91-0.95) and a 100% probability of extinction within 150 yrs. Despite some broad permutations in our baseline demographic parameters, there were no scenarios included within our sensitivity analysis that increased the population's growth rate to a positive value. These results have implications for the long-term persistence of wood turtles in Maine and throughout their range. Our study helps fill a need for current data from this area that may be used to inform both local and regional management plans. KEY WORDS. -capture-mark-recapture, Program MARK, population viability analysis, VORTEX

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Demography and Viability of a Central Maine Population of Wood Turtles (Glyptemys insculpta)

Chatfield

LeClair

Howell

et al. 2023

Chelonian Conservation and Biology

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“…There may therefore be a high cost to delaying actions until rigorous research and monitoring protocols have been put in place and reliable epidemiological models have been developed (Canessa et al, 2018;Grant et al, 2017). In this context, formal expert elicitation offers an opportunity to rapidly address important scientific questions and inform management activities (Choy et al, 2009;Martin et al, 2017Martin et al, , 2012Moore et al, 2022;O'Hagan et al, 2006). It also provides a means to structure existing knowledge into a framework that can guide future research and monitoring efforts (Kuhnert et al, 2010;Martin et al, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid prototyping for quantifying belief weights of competing hypotheses about emergent diseases

Robertson

Walsh

Martin

et al. 2023

Journal of Environmental Management

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Using the R package popharvest to assess the sustainability of offtake in birds

Johnson,

Eraud,

Francesiaz

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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The R package popharvest was designed to help assess the sustainability of offtake in birds when only limited demographic information is available. In this article, we describe some basics of harvest theory and then discuss several considerations when using the different approaches in popharvest to assess whether observed harvests are unsustainable. Throughout, we emphasize the importance of distinguishing between the scientific and policy aspects of managing offtake. The principal product of popharvest is a sustainable harvest index (SHI), which can indicate whether the harvest is unsustainable but not the converse. SHI is estimated based on a simple, scalar model of logistic population growth, whose parameters may be estimated using limited knowledge of demography. Uncertainty in demography leads to a distribution of SHI values and it is the purview of the decision‐maker to determine what amounts to an acceptable risk when failing to reject the null hypothesis of sustainability. The attitude toward risk, in turn, will likely depend on the decision‐maker's objective(s) in managing offtake. The management objective as specified in popharvest is a social construct, informed by biology, but ultimately it is an expression of social values that usually vary among stakeholders. We therefore suggest that any standardization of criteria for management objectives in popharvest will necessarily be subjective and, thus, hard to defend in diverse decision‐making situations. Because of its ease of use, diverse functionalities, and a minimal requirement of demographic information, we expect the use of popharvest to become widespread. Nonetheless, we suggest that while popharvest provides a useful platform for rapid assessments of sustainability, it cannot substitute for sufficient expertise and experience in harvest theory and management.

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Evaluating the effect of expert elicitation techniques on population status assessment in the face of large uncertainty

Cited by 7 publications

References 33 publications

Demography and Viability of a Central Maine Population of Wood Turtles (Glyptemys insculpta)

Demography and Viability of a Central Maine Population of Wood Turtles (Glyptemys insculpta)

Rapid prototyping for quantifying belief weights of competing hypotheses about emergent diseases

Using the R package popharvest to assess the sustainability of offtake in birds

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