Spatial performance of four climate field reconstruction methods targeting the Common Era

Smerdon, Jason E.; Kaplan, Alexey; Zorita, Eduardo; González-Rouco, J. Fidel; Evans, M. N.

doi:10.1029/2011gl047372

Cited by 68 publications

(147 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The inclusion of spatial pattern information in the CFR process may also help explain the absence of amplitude loss for the spatial mean reconstruction outside the calibration period, an effect sometimes noted for use of OLS in inverse model [climate = f(proxies)] applications such as used here [cf. Ammann et al, 2010;Smerdon et al 2011b]. This lack of amplitude loss was anticipated by pseudoproxy experiments performed in preparation for development of the western North America field reconstructions reported here (cf.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 57%

“…In the context of temperature reconstructions specifically, vigorous debates have developed about the applied reconstruction methodologies, the nature of the climate-proxy connection, and the estimated uncertainties in derived reconstructions [e.g., von Storch et al, 2004;Mann et al, 2007;Wahl and Ammann, 2007;Christiansen et al, 2009;Tingley and Huybers, 2010;Smerdon et al, 2011aSmerdon et al, , 2011b. Among these, a recent study by McShane and Wyner [2011, hereinafter MW11] has argued that "proxies are severely limited in their ability to predict average temperatures and temperature gradients."…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparative performance of paleoclimate field and index reconstructions derived from climate proxies and noise‐only predictors

Wahl

Smerdon

2012

Geophysical Research Letters

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[1] The performance of climate field reconstruction (CFR) and index reconstruction methods is evaluated using proxy and non-informative predictor experiments. The skill of both reconstruction methods is determined using proxy data targeting the western region of North America. The results are compared to those targeting the same region, but derived from non-informative predictors comprising red-noise time series reflecting the full temporal autoregressive structure of the proxy network. All experiments are performed as probabilistic ensembles, providing estimated Monte Carlo distributions of reconstruction skill. Results demonstrate that the CFR skill distributions from proxy data are statistically distinct from and outperform the corresponding skill distributions generated from non-informative predictors; similar relative performance is demonstrated for the index reconstructions. In comparison to the CFR results using proxy information, the index reconstructions exhibit similar skill in calibration, but somewhat less skill in validation and a tendency to underestimate the amplitude of the validation period mean. Citation: Wahl, E. R., and J. E. Smerdon (2012), Comparative performance of paleoclimate field and index reconstructions derived from climate proxies and noise-only predictors,

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 57%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative performance of paleoclimate field and index reconstructions derived from climate proxies and noise‐only predictors

Wahl

Smerdon

2012

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Due to the significance of the large-scale information estimated in CFRs, a growing number of studies have explicitly evaluated the spatial performance of CFRs (Dannenberg and Wise, 2013;Evans et al, 2014;Li and Smerdon, 2012;Smerdon et al, 2008;Wang et al, 2014). However, only a few studies have tested the differences in the spatial performance of CFR methods according to the modeled climate that is used as a test bed by the PPE (Mann et al, 2007;Smerdon et al, 2011Smerdon et al, , 2016. These studies tested the spatial skill of CFR methods using information from a composite proxy network including mostly terrestrial proxies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pseudo-proxy evaluation of climate field reconstruction methods of North Atlantic climate based on an annually resolved marine proxy network

Pyrina¹,

Wagner²,

Zorita³

2017

Clim. Past

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Abstract. Two statistical methods are tested to reconstruct the interannual variations in past sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the North Atlantic (NA) Ocean over the past millennium based on annually resolved and absolutely dated marine proxy records of the bivalve mollusk Arctica islandica. The methods are tested in a pseudo-proxy experiment (PPE) setup using state-of-the-art climate models (CMIP5 Earth system models) and reanalysis data from the COBE2 SST data set. The methods were applied in the virtual reality provided by global climate simulations and reanalysis data to reconstruct the past NA SSTs using pseudo-proxy records that mimic the statistical characteristics and network of Arctica islandica. The multivariate linear regression methods evaluated here are principal component regression and canonical correlation analysis. Differences in the skill of the climate field reconstruction (CFR) are assessed according to different calibration periods and different proxy locations within the NA basin. The choice of the climate model used as a surrogate reality in the PPE has a more profound effect on the CFR skill than the calibration period and the statistical reconstruction method. The differences between the two methods are clearer for the MPI-ESM model due to its higher spatial resolution in the NA basin. The pseudo-proxy results of the CCSM4 model are closer to the pseudo-proxy results based on the reanalysis data set COBE2. Conducting PPEs using noise-contaminated pseudo-proxies instead of noisefree pseudo-proxies is important for the evaluation of the methods, as more spatial differences in the reconstruction skill are revealed. Both methods are appropriate for the reconstruction of the temporal evolution of the NA SSTs, even though they lead to a great loss of variance away from the proxy sites. Under reasonable assumptions about the characteristics of the non-climate noise in the proxy records, our results show that the marine network of Arctica islandica can be used to skillfully reconstruct the spatial patterns of SSTs at the eastern NA basin.

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“…These authors focused on hemispheric annual mean temperature and used two climate models. In the studies of Smerdon et al (2011) and Smerdon et al (2016), the influence of choosing a particular model simulation on the CFR results was investigated, but focusing on the spatially resolved surface temperature, covering global scales. They used a multiproxy network that consists mostly of terrestrial and a few oceanic proxies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of CMIP5 models over the northern North Atlantic in the context of forthcoming paleoclimatic reconstructions

2017

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We evaluated 11 coupled climate model simulations regarding the spatial structures of sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic, during the second half of the twentieth century. The subset of models includes CCSM4, CSIRO, CanESM and MPI-ESM, participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project. The evaluation was performed to determine the potential of these models to be used at a later stage as test beds for the evaluation of climate field reconstruction methods that will use the extremely long-lived bivalve mollusk Arctica islandica, an outstanding paleoclimate archive for the boreal and temperate North Atlantic (Schöne, Glob Planet Change 111:199–225, 2013). Several validation metrics such as the mean bias, variance, spatial and temporal co-variability and trends of the North Atlantic summer SSTs showed that some of the models can be used to test paleoclimatic reconstructions. However, most models showed shortcomings in simulating the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Concerning the co-variability of summer SSTs between proxy sites and the whole North Atlantic SST field, we found that these proxy locations contain a SST signal that might represent a (basin-wide) signal for the north-eastern North Atlantic basin

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Spatial performance of four climate field reconstruction methods targeting the Common Era

Cited by 68 publications

References 21 publications

Comparative performance of paleoclimate field and index reconstructions derived from climate proxies and noise‐only predictors

Comparative performance of paleoclimate field and index reconstructions derived from climate proxies and noise‐only predictors

Pseudo-proxy evaluation of climate field reconstruction methods of North Atlantic climate based on an annually resolved marine proxy network

Evaluation of CMIP5 models over the northern North Atlantic in the context of forthcoming paleoclimatic reconstructions

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