Spatial patterns of European droughts under a moderate emission scenario

Abstract

Abstract. Meteorological drought is generally defined as a prolonged deficiency of precipitation and is considered one of the most relevant natural hazards as the related impacts can involve many different sectors. In this study, we investigated the spatial patterns of European droughts for the periods 1981-2010, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, focusing on the projections under a moderate emissions scenario. To do that, we used the outputs of the KNMI-RACMO2 model, which belongs to the A1B family and whose spatial resolution is 0.25 • × 0.25 • . By means of monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), we computed the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at the 12-month accumulation scale. Thereafter, we separately obtained drought frequency, duration, severity, and intensity for the whole of Europe, excluding Iceland. According to both indicators, the spatial drought patterns are projected to follow what recently characterized Europe: southern Europe, who experienced many severe drought events in the last decades, is likely to be involved by longer, more frequent, severe, and intense droughts in the near future (2041-2070) and even more in the far future (2071-2100). This tendency is more evident using the SPEI, which also depends on temperature and consequently reflects the expected warming that will be highest for the Mediterranean area in Europe. On the other side, less severe and fewer drought events are likely to occur in northern Europe. This tendency is more evident using the SPI, because the precipitation increase is projected to outbalance the temperature (and PET) rise in particular in Scandinavia. Regarding the mid-latitudes, the SPEIbased analyses point at more frequent drought events, while the SPI-based ones point at less frequent events in these regions.

Design and Manual to Construct Rainout-Shelters for Climate Change Experiments in Agroecosystems

“…Besides undisturbed plots that received ambient precipitation, we installed a replicated set of rainout-shelters that were identical to our original rainoutshelters, but allowed all natural precipitation to reach the area under the rainout-shelter (V-bands were turned over to become -bands). The partial reduction of rainfall simulated by our rainout-shelters reflects predictions of future precipitation changes during the crop growing season in Central Europe (Russo et al, 2013;Spinoni et al, 2015;EEA, 2017). Our rainoutshelters are suitable for studies in a wide range of ecosystems, including agricultural systems, as they are both stable enough to endure extreme weather events in open land and are removable to allow for management activities.…”

“…Climate change models predict a future increase in temperature and altered precipitation regimes for Central Europe (Russo et al, 2013;Spinoni et al, 2015;EEA, 2017) as well as on a global scale (IPCC, 2014). For Switzerland, average annual precipitation is predicted to decrease by 21-28% by the end of the century, accompanied by more frequent drought events in summer (CH2011, 2011).…”

Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?

“…The same approach was used in Spinoni et al . (, , , ) and is based on the definitions provided by McKee et al . (, ).…”

“…We highlight that the same approach was chosen in the previous studies of Spinoni et al . (, ), consequently we decided to adapt it to this study in order to give continuity.…”

Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management

“…Indeed, previous studies e.g. Sheffield and Wood (2008), Dai (2011), Orlowsky andSeneviratne (2013) and Spinoni et al (2015a) have shown that increases in drought impacts during the recent past were not driven by decreased precipitation only, but also by increased evapotranspiration, highlighting that trends in precipitation emerge slowly and their effects on extreme climate events, such as drought, only establish in the longer-term. …”