Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management

Carrão, Hugo; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3740-8

Cited by 73 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 111 publications

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“…Projected changes in precipitation exhibit substantial spatial variation ( Figure S9), with increases for most midlatitude and high-latitude landmasses and decreases over midlatitude and subtropical arid and semiarid regions. For many regions uncertainty in precipitation projections remains high (Carrão, Naumann, & Barbosa, 2017), particularly at higher levels of warming. There are few zones where the supply of water outweighs continental drying and the water balance will not progressively decline, like northern Europe, Southeastern South America, Central Africa, Canada, the Russian Federation, and China (except the north-west).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

Naumann

Alfieri

Wyser

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

539

298

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Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply‐demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north‐west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South‐eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100‐year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

Naumann

Alfieri

Wyser

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

539

298

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“…Research and investigations into the drivers and patterns of drought risk are increasing global in scope [1,7,17], due to its multifaceted impacts on water availability, agricultural outputs, health, economy, and the natural environment [15,17,18]. Studies focusing on drought vulnerability, however, have been less numerous than those dealing with the physical perspective of drought development [41,42], even though the coupling of both dimensions has been identified as crucial [7,11,43]. Drought development and monitoring have also received increased attention in Zimbabwe, since droughts have devastating impacts in many parts of the country.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Risk to Agricultural Systems in Zimbabwe: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability

Frischen

Meza

Rupp³

et al. 2020

Sustainability

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The devastating impacts of drought are fast becoming a global concern. Zimbabwe is among the countries more severely affected, where drought impacts have led to water shortages, declining yields, and periods of food insecurity, accompanied by economic downturns. In particular, the country’s agricultural sector, mostly comprised of smallholder rainfed systems, is at great risk of drought. In this study, a multimethod approach is applied, including a remote sensing-based analysis of vegetation health data from 1989–2019 to assess the drought hazard, as well as a spatial analysis combined with expert consultations to determine drought vulnerability and exposure of agricultural systems. The results show that droughts frequently occur with changing patterns across Zimbabwe. Every district has been affected by drought during the past thirty years, with varying levels of severity and frequency. Severe drought episodes have been observed in 1991–1992, 1994–1995, 2002–2003, 2015–2016, and 2018–2019. Drought vulnerability and exposure vary substantially in the country, with the south-western provinces of Matabeleland North and South showing particularly high levels. Assessments of high-risk areas, combined with an analysis of the drivers of risk, set the path towards tailor-made adaptation strategies that consider drought frequency and severity, exposure, and vulnerability.

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“…Given global climate change, under which droughts are projected to increase in frequency and severity in many locations (Carrão, Naumann, & Barbosa, ; Dai, , ; Duffy, Brando, Asner, & Field, ; MacDonald, ; Yoon et al, ), the mechanistic quantification of physiological tolerance of drought is critical for prediction of species responses. The maintenance of leaf function during drought depends on the properties of all plant organs (e.g., including leaf stomatal closure, stem resistance to embolism, and rooting depth) and of the whole plant (e.g., including biomass allocation to roots and resprouting; Larcher, ; Jones, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Leaf rehydration capacity: Associations with other indices of drought tolerance and environment

John

Henry

Sack

2018

Plant Cell & Environment

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Clarifying the mechanisms of leaf and whole plant drought responses is critical to predict the impacts of ongoing climate change. The loss of rehydration capacity has been used for decades as a metric of leaf dehydration tolerance but has not been compared with other aspects of drought tolerance. We refined methods for quantifying the percent loss of rehydration capacity (PLRC), and for 18 Southern California woody species, we determined the relative water content and leaf water potential at PLRC of 10%, 25%, and 50%, and, additionally, the PLRC at important stages of dehydration including stomatal closure and turgor loss. On average, PLRC of 10% occurred below turgor loss point and at similar water status to 80% decline of stomatal conductance. As hypothesized, the sensitivity to loss of leaf rehydration capacity varied across species, leaf habits, and ecosystems and correlated with other drought tolerance traits, including the turgor loss point and structural traits including leaf mass per area. A new database of PLRC for 89 species from the global literature indicated greater leaf rehydration capacity in ecosystems with lower growing season moisture availability, indicating an adaptive role of leaf cell dehydration tolerance within the complex of drought tolerance traits.

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Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management

Cited by 73 publications

References 111 publications

Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

Drought Risk to Agricultural Systems in Zimbabwe: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability

Leaf rehydration capacity: Associations with other indices of drought tolerance and environment

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