Spatial Integration Analysis of Metal Production Markets

Sirotin, V.

doi:10.17073/0368-0797-2017-1-74-79

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 2 publications

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“…В эконометрике задача прогнозирования временных рядов рассматривается как частный случай регрессии. Методический инструментарий прогнозирования учитывает модели экспоненциального сглаживания, регрессионные и авторегрессионные модели [8,9] и др. Стоит отметить набирающий популярность подход, учитывающий нейросетевое моделирование.…”

Section: описание метода исследованияunclassified

Neural network approach to forecasting the cost of ferroalloy products

Sirotin¹

2020

Izv. vysš. učebn. zaved., Čern. metall.

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The article notes the increasing role of ferroalloy sub-sector in the qualitative development of metallurgy. Progress predicts of modern metallurgy are difficult in the context of increasing risks of global economic development. The high volatility of domestic producers’ prices for the main ferroalloys also has a negative impact. It is necessary to develop methodological tools for forecasting changes in market prices for metallurgical products with a high degree of accuracy. One of the important areas of application in metallurgy forecasting tools is construction of a model for forecasting the cost of ferroalloy products. It is the main purpose of the study. On the example of constructing a forecast model for changing the price of ferrosilicon, relevance of the neural network approach to forecasting the cost of ferroalloy products was substantiated. As part of the tasks of industry development, the capabilities of neural networks have been poorly studied to date. Formal description of the time series forecasting model based on neural networks is given. When constructing neural networks, any time series problem is represented as a multidimensional regression problem. The main parameters of predictive networks training are highlighted. The average price of ferrosilicon on the Russian market and the prices in the Russian regions were used as input variables. The networks that meet the qualitative criteria of forecasting models were trained. Selection of the networks was carried out taking into account the results of graphical analysis and cross-checking. A neural network model was constructed to predict the change in ferrosilicon price in the short term with high accuracy. This model can be useful in strategic decisions justifying in the activities of industry research institutes and metallurgical enterprises.

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Section: описание метода исследованияunclassified

Neural network approach to forecasting the cost of ferroalloy products

Sirotin¹

2020

Izv. vysš. učebn. zaved., Čern. metall.

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The problem of efficiency of distribution production and consumption of ferrous metals products in Russian Federation and in Southern Federal District as an example

Грибков¹,

Brodov

2019

Černaâ metallurgiâ. Bûlletenʹ naučno-tehničeskoj informacii

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Optimization of logistics is an important component of the country regions provision by metal products. Data on consumption of ferrous metals finished rolled products and steel pipes in 2016–2017 by RF federal districts quoted, as well as structure of the produced rolled products assortment in 2016 and 2017 in RF as a whole and in the Southern Federal District (SFD). Results of analysis of indices of production rolled products and steel pipes in SFD presented, as well as level of their consumption at the expense of supplies from local sources, other districts of Russia and for export. For the analysis of finished metal products shipment to the domestic market, including the regional one and for export, correspondent calculations were made using database of the Russian railways and the one of Federal Customs, as well as data on purchase of industries-consumers. Further based on the data, the apparent consumption of finished products in the region was determined. In 2017 in the SFD the finished products were produced in the amount of 1.99 mt. The structure of produced finished products in the SFD had a peculiarity – extremely low (1.6%) share of sheet products. Capacity utilization for rolled products and pipes production in the SFD in 2017 was 66.8 and 58.2% correspondently, that gives a chance to steel-works of SFD to increase the production quickly in case of demand increasing. For elimination the mentioned imbalance, it is necessary to balance the assortment of the products being produced and consumed, as well as to develop integration ties between plants of SFD and nearby districts, and undertake measures for encouragement of metalconsuming industries development.

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Spatial Integration Analysis of Metal Production Markets

Cited by 2 publications

References 2 publications

Neural network approach to forecasting the cost of ferroalloy products

Neural network approach to forecasting the cost of ferroalloy products

The problem of efficiency of distribution production and consumption of ferrous metals products in Russian Federation and in Southern Federal District as an example

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