Spatial expansion effects on urban ecosystem services supply-demand mismatching in Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration of China

Abstract

Global urbanization has led to drastic land use change, interfering the ecosystem services (ES) supply-demand balance, in turn threatening the well-being of humans. However, existing studies mainly stranded at the historical and current analysis, and the effects of urban spatial expansion on the relationship between ES supply and demand in the future are less clear, in particular at an urban agglomeration scale. This study was constructed with a framework of assessing the effects of urban spatial expansion on ES supply-demand mismatching under different future scenarios in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration (GPUA) by using the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model and expert-based Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC) matrix. The results showed that: (1) Urban expansion is significant in the natural development (ND) scenario, mainly manifesting the great transfer of dry land to construction land. (2) The gap between total ES supply and demand is narrowed from 2000 to 2030 and the mismatch between ES supply and demand is mainly reflected in the spatial distribution pattern in the GPUA. The ES budgets were in high surplus in Northern Qinling Mountains and northeast mountain areas, while they were in severe deficit in urban center areas. The budgets deficit under the ND scenario in 2030 is the most severe. (3) The gradient differences of ES budgets of the GPUA between urban centers and suburbs increase from 2000 to 2030 under two scenarios. The deficit region expands largest under ND scenario. The findings revealed that ES declining and supply-demand mismatching were triggered by the drastic land-use change driven by rapid urban expansion. The expansion has brought about an increasing material demand and growing industries, threatening the sustainability of ecosystems. Scenarios setting could contribute to coordinating the relationship between future urban development and ecological protection, and the policy strategies proposed in the

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Values in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China

“…The urban agglomeration covers an area of 107,000 km 2 and belongs to the warm temperate continental monsoon climate zone, with a resident population of 36,906,200 in 2020, and the regional GDP is CNY 1.91 trillion. The Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration is an important fulcrum of the Asia-Europe Continental Bridge, and also the second-largest urban agglomeration in western China, connecting the China-Mongolia-Russia International Economic Cooperation Corridor in the north and the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration in the south [13]. The cities include Xi'an, Baoji, Xianyang, Tongchuan, Weinan, Shangluo City in Shaanxi Province; Yuncheng City (except Pinglu County and Quanqu County), and Linfen City (Yaodu District, Houma City, Xianfen County, Huozhou City, Quwo County, and Yicheng County) in Shanxi Province; Tianshui City (Hongdong County, Fushan County), Pingliang City (Kongdong District, Huating County, Jingchuan County, Chongxin County, and Lingtai County), and Qingyang City (Xifeng District) in Gansu Province.…”

“…Dong used the coupling coordination degree method to evaluate the relations between urbanization degree and ecological environment in the urban agglomeration, and further detected influencing factors of spatial divergence [12]. Peng estimated the future land use of Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration in 2030 using the FLUS model, and simulated the supply and demand of ecosystem services [13]. His research was based on expert experience, which in part influenced judgments about overall ecosystem service budgets.…”

A spatially explicit framework for assessing ecosystem service supply risk under multiple land‐use scenarios in the Xi'an Metropolitan Area of China

“…The current urbanization rate of the resident population is over 72%, and the regional GDP is about 1.3 trillion RMB. In recent decades, drastic land‐use changes raised by urbanization led to urgent environmental problems, inducing ES degradation risk in XMA (Li et al, 2017; Zhang et al, 2011), including pronounced air pollution problems in inner cities, soil erosion in the northeastern part, and ecological security destruction risk in the northern Qinling Mountains (Peng et al, 2022; Zhang & Yan, 2011). XMA is a crucial part of the ecological protection and high‐quality development of the Yellow River basin, and the advancement of the Belt and Road.…”

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use and Habitat Quality in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China

“…Since the 1950s, with the continuous and rapid advancement of urbanization and industrialization in the world, the intensity and breadth of human activities on the surface of natural ecosystems have reached an unprecedented level, resulting in the loss of biodiversity, habitat fragmentation, and ecosystem degradation [ 1 , 2 , 3 ], which seriously threaten human well-being and ecosystem stability [ 4 , 5 ]. Especially in urbanized areas, human activities and urban spatial expansion have caused a dramatic transition in land-use patterns, which change the structure and composition of habitats, which aggravates habitat fragmentation and hinders the process of material exchange and energy flow between habitat patches [ 6 , 7 ].…”