Spatial Distribution Simulation and Trend Analysis of Land Use in Sanya Based on GeoSOS-FLUS Model

Kai, Jian; Shengnan, Wang; Li-xia, Guo; Zhang, Qing

doi:10.11648/j.urp.20200504.11

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…This indicator index was successfully applied to evaluate the CAR in 27 European Union countries and provided valuable insights for reducing CA (Valujeva et al, 2022; Terres et al, 2015), which has also been adopted to conduct CAR studies in China at regional and county scale, such as in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the mountainous areas of Chongqing (Chen, Tan, et al, 2023; Guo & Song, 2019; Su et al, 2022). Meanwhile, based on indicators from agri‐environmental indicators, combining spatial analysis method and agent‐based modeling (e.g., Dyna‐Clue, GeoSOS‐FLUS, and CLUE‐S), the distribution of future abandoned cropland under different scenarios was predicted in various regions (Das et al, 2019; Hu et al, 2013; Kai et al, 2020). These studies demonstrate the advantages of CAR evaluation in integrating various data and methodologies to forecast CA's spatio‐temporal pattern and trend (Chen, Tan, et al, 2023; Terres et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing and mapping cropland abandonment risk in China

Zeng,

Luo,

Chen

et al. 2024

Land Degrad Dev

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Cropland abandonment (CA) in China worsens the human‐land conflict and endangers national food sustainability. Scientifically assessing cropland abandonment risk (CAR) can provide valuable information for early warning and prevention of CA. Despite the extensive literature on the identification, determinants, and consequences of CA, the research on CAR still needs to be improved, especially on a grid scale. Therefore, this study constructed an evaluation indicators system regarding farming conditions, socio‐economic, and patch characteristics and used optimal parametric geographical detector and structural equation modeling to assess the CAR in China from 2010 to 2020. The results show China's CAR decreased from west to east. Very high and high CAR areas were in plateaus and mountains in western China. Medium CAR areas were mainly in central and southeastern China. Very low and low CAR areas were mainly in the Sichuan Basin and eastern plains. In 2010, the high and medium CARs accounted for a larger share of the area, 24.814% and 24.759%, respectively. The area share of very low, low, and very high CAR was 19.294%, 19.501%, and 11.633%, respectively. By 2020, both low and very high CARs increased, while the opposite was true for other grades of CAR. Very high CAR increased most evidently in the Loess Plateau. Although high CAR decreased, 43,327 km2 of medium CAR was converted to high CAR. CAR's centers of gravity in China were located at the junction of the Loess Plateau and the Huang‐Huai‐Hai Plain and have shifted to the northwest by 5445.34 m. The findings will assist stakeholders in developing targeted cropland protection strategies to prevent CA and efficiently allocate resources for agricultural production.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing and mapping cropland abandonment risk in China

Zeng,

Luo,

Chen

et al. 2024

Land Degrad Dev

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Data-Driven Projections Demonstrate Non-Farming Use of Cropland in Non-Major Grain-Producing Areas: A Case Study of Shaanxi Province, China

et al. 2023

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The non-farming use of cropland has led to food insecurity in China due to drastic land use (LU) changes under the stresses of ecological restoration and urbanization, particularly in non-major grain-producing areas. Questions were raised about spatiotemporal cropland losses/gains and their drivers in these areas in the future for sustainable development of the agriculture sector. However, the answers to these questions have not been well acknowledged. This study, therefore, presents analyses of cropland area change from 1990 to 2018 and from 2018 to 2051 in Shaanxi province based on the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model that follows the integration of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 and the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (SSP245) within the International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The results highlight that ecological restoration and fast-paced urbanization mainly drove the alarming non-farming use of cropland. The per capita cropland area is projected to increase, but the cropland loss will still occur, which potentially causes food insecurity. Thus, food security will be a challenging issue in the near future. The quantitative findings call for careful designs of LU policies, taking into account cropland protection, socio-economic development, and ecological restoration.

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Assessment of Carbon Storage under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios in Terrestrial Ecosystems of Jilin Province, China

Wan

Liu

Zhao

2023

IJERPH

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Carbon storage is one of the key factors determining the global carbon balance in the terrestrial ecosystems. Predicting future changes in carbon storage is significant for regional sustainable development in the background of the “dual carbon” objective. This study which coupled the InVEST model and the PLUS model and is based on land use in different future scenarios evaluated the evolution characterization of terrestrial carbon storage in Jilin Province from 2000 to 2040 and explored the impact of related factors on it. The results show that: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the area of cultivated land and built-up areas increased continuously in Jilin Province, while the area of forest land, grassland, and wetland decreased with time; the ecological land has been restored to a certain degree. (2) Due to the continuous reduction in ecological land, the overall carbon storage in Jilin Province from 2000 to 2020 showed a downward trend, with a total reduction of 30.3 Tg, and the carbon storage in the western part of Jilin Province changed significantly. The SSP2-RCP4.5 scenario shows a minimum value of carbon storage in 2030 and a small increase in 2040; the SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario shows an increasing trend in carbon storage from 2020 to 2040; the area of built-up areas and cultivated land increases and the loss in carbon storage is more serious under the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario. (3) On the whole, with the increase in elevation and slope, the carbon storage showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing, and the carbon storage of shady and semi-shady slopes was higher than that of sunny and semi-sunny slopes; forest land and cultivated land were the keys to carbon storage changes in Jilin Province.

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Spatial Distribution Simulation and Trend Analysis of Land Use in Sanya Based on GeoSOS-FLUS Model

Cited by 3 publications

References 0 publications

Assessing and mapping cropland abandonment risk in China

Assessing and mapping cropland abandonment risk in China

Data-Driven Projections Demonstrate Non-Farming Use of Cropland in Non-Major Grain-Producing Areas: A Case Study of Shaanxi Province, China

Assessment of Carbon Storage under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios in Terrestrial Ecosystems of Jilin Province, China

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