Spatial distribution of Zika virus infection in northeastern Colombia

Abstract

Z ika virus (ZIKV) infection is causing epidemics in Latin America [1]. Colombia has officially reported a total of 58,838 cases of ZIKV infection in the first 32 epidemic weeks (21 in 2015 and 11 in 2016) [2]. According to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) and the World Health Organization (WHO), Colombia has fewer cases than Brazil in terms of absolute number of infections (58,838 cases, 4% laboratory confirmed in Colombia compared to 72,596 cases, 0.74% laboratory confirmed in Brazil) [3,4]. However, Colombia has a higher per capita incidence rate (IR) than Brazil due to its smaller population size (209,157,170 pop, IR = 34.71 cases/100,000 population in Brazil; 48,747,632 population, IR=120.70 cases/100,000 population in Colombia) [4]. The ZIKV incidence rate is 3.5 times higher in Colombia than in Brazil. Thus, Colombia currently faces the greatest burden of disease for ZIKV, worldwide.

Mapping Zika virus disease incidence in Valle del Cauca

“…For its communes, rates ranged from 126.12 to 646.22 cases/100,000 pop. (commune 8,8.56 % of the municipality's cases, located at the center of the municipality) (Fig. 2), followed by commune 22 (558.81 cases/100,000 pop.…”

“…There is an enhanced number of ZIKV-associated neurological syndromes with 25 cases reported from Valle del Cauca as well one case of acute flaccid paralysis with history of ZIKV infection [10]. Then, public health policies and strategies for integral control of ZIKV in people living, but also in visitors [4][5][6][7][8]13] to those areas, should be considered and urgently implemented; particularly in the capital, Cali, and in the Northern municipalities. In Cali, as well as Valle del Cauca, other arboviruses, such as dengue and chikungunya are also cocirculating [14].…”

“…Use of GIS-based epidemiological maps allow to integrate preventive and control strategies, as well as public health policies, for joint control of this vector-borne disease in this and other areas of the country [4][5][6][7][8][9][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24]. As other arboviruses are co-circulating (dengue, CHIKV and ZIKV), maps of them as well for co-infections will be also needed [16,17].…”

“…In this setting use of GIS would be also at national and subnational levels to provide models about the influence and suitability of Zika given environmental and social factors [8,18]. Recent evidences indicated that 2015 El Niño caused extreme climatic conditions in Northeastern South America during winter and spring in the southern hemisphere, that might have contributed to the rapid dispersal of Zika virus in Brazil and other countries in the region, possibly including Colombia [19], as has been evidenced for dengue in different regions of this country [20,21].…”

“…This enables to make recommendations related to prioritize interventions in population living in those areas as well as in visitors to, or people returning from visiting specific places [4,5]. We have previously developed epidemiological maps for ZIKV in Colombia using geographical information systems (GIS) at high incidence departments, such as La Guajira and Sucre (Caribbean region), Tolima (Central area), Santander and Norte de Santander (Northeastern area) [6][7][8][9]. We have also previously provided GIS-based epidemiological maps for CHIKV in other areas of the country [5].…”