Spatial distribution of carbon sources and sinks in Canada’s
                        forests

Chen, Jing M.; Ju, Weimin; Cihlar, J.; Price, David T.; Liu, Jane; Chen, Wenjun; Pan, Jianjun; Black, Andy; Barr, Alan

doi:10.3402/tellusb.v55i2.16711

Cited by 70 publications

(102 citation statements)

References 37 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Much like Schumacher and Bugmann's data (2006), our simulations point toward increased fire activity, and the conditions described by Raffa et al (2008) warning of increased insect activity under changing climatic conditions, are also supported by our simulations. Although other simulations found that overall positive effects of nondisturbance factors (climate, CO 2 , and nitrogen) outweighed the effects of increased disturbances in the last two decades (Chen et al 2003), our results point toward the changes in temperature and precipitation (including the CO 2 fertilization effect), which cause deteriorating conditions on forest sites and exacerbate disturbance effects.…”

Section: Other Factorscontrasting

confidence: 73%

Simulations show decreasing carbon stocks and potential for carbon emissions in Rocky Mountain forests over the next century

Boisvenue

Running

2010

Ecological Applications

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change has altered the environment in which forests grow, and climate change models predict more severe alterations to come. Forests have already responded to these changes, and the future temperature and precipitation scenarios are of foremost concern, especially in the mountainous western United States, where forests occur in the dry environments that interface with grasslands. The objective of this study was to understand the trade-offs between temperature and water controls on these forested sites in the context of available climate projections. Three temperature and precipitation scenarios from IPCC AR4 AOGCMs ranging in precipitation levels were input to the process model Biome-BGC for key forested sites in the northern U.S. Rocky Mountains. Despite the omission of natural and human-caused disturbances in our simulations, our results show consequential effects from these conservative future temperature and precipitation scenarios. According to these projections, if future precipitation and temperatures are similar to or drier than the dry scenario depicted here, high-elevation forests on both the drier and wetter sites, which have in the absence of disturbance accumulated carbon, will reduce their carbon accumulation. Under the marginally drier climate projections, most forests became carbon sources by the end of the simulation horizon (2089). Under all three scenarios, growing season lengthened, the number of days with snow on the ground decreased, peak snow occurred earlier, and water stress increased through the projection horizon (1950-2089) for all sites, which represent the temperature and precipitation spectrum of forests in this region. The quantity, form, and timing of precipitation ultimately drive the carbon accumulation trajectory of forests in this region.

show abstract

Section: Other Factorscontrasting

confidence: 73%

Simulations show decreasing carbon stocks and potential for carbon emissions in Rocky Mountain forests over the next century

Boisvenue

Running

2010

Ecological Applications

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…At larger spatial scales, sufficient field observations for a statistical validation are rarely available (Heuvelink, 1998b;Jenkins et al, 2001;Tickle et al, 2001). This is the main reason why many published estimates of tree growth, of NPP or of carbon sequestration at the regional scale (Falloon et al, 1998(Falloon et al, , 2002Heuvelink, 1998b;Jansen, 1998;Ollinger et al, 1998;Mummery et al, 1999;Sands et al, 2000;Jenkins et al, 2001;Mummery & Battaglia, 2001Tickle et al, 2001;Zierl, 2001;Chen et al, 2003) have either been validated against sparse field observations at a scale different from model input data, or against other model predictions or have not been validated at all. Even when field-based data seem to be insufficient for an empirical (statistical) uncertainty analysis, other methods of uncertainty or sensitivity analysis are rarely used in model performance studies.…”

Section: Uncertainty Analysis In Large-scale Ecosystem Predictionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying uncertainty from large‐scale model predictions of forest carbon dynamics

Miehle

Livesley

et al. 2006

Global Change Biology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Linking environmental computer simulation models and geographic information systems (GIS) is now a common practice to scale up simulations of complex ecosystem processes for decision support. Unfortunately, several important issues of upscaling using GIS are rarely considered; in particular scale dependency of models, availability of input data, support of input and validation data, and uncertainty in prediction including error propagation from the GIS. We linked the biogeochemical Forest-DNDC model to a GIS database to predict growth of Eucalyptus globulus plantations at two different scales ( $ 0.045 ha plot À1 scale and $ 100 ha grid À1 scale) across Victoria, in south-eastern Australia. Results showed that Forest-DNDC was not scale dependent across the range of scales investigated. Reduced availability of input data at the larger scale may introduce severe prediction errors, but did not require adjustment of the model in this study. Differences in the support of input and validation data led to an underestimation of predictive precision but an overestimation of prediction accuracy. Increasing data support, produced a high level of prediction accuracy (¯e% ¼ À3:54%), but a medium level of predictive precision (r 2 5 0.474, ME 5 0.318) after statistical validation. GIS error contribution could be detected but was not readily or reliably quantified. In a regional case study for 2653 ha of E. globulus plantations, the linked model GIS system estimated a total standing biomass of 95 260 t C for mid-2003 and a net CO 2 balance of À45 671 t CO 2 -C yr À1 for the entire year of 2002. This study showed that regional predictions of forest growth and carbon sequestration can be produced with greater confidence after a comprehensive assessment of upscaling issues.

show abstract

“…Several studies have incorporated the influence of fire into process-based models, but the applications of these models have primarily been focused on retrospective analyses of carbon dynamics (Peng & Apps, 1999;Amiro et al, 2000;Chen et al, 2000Chen et al, , 2003Thonicke et al, 2001;Venevsky et al, 2002;Hicke et al, 2003;Balshi et al, 2007). Relatively few studies have investigated the influence of future fire disturbance on the carbon dynamics of the North American boreal region in the context of a changing climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century

Balshi

McGuire

Duffy³

et al. 2009

Global Change Biology

189

156

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The boreal forest contains large reserves of carbon. Across this region, wildfires influence the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage. In this study, we estimate fire emissions and changes in carbon storage for boreal North America over the 21st century. We use a gridded data set developed with a multivariate adaptive regression spline approach to determine how area burned varies each year with changing climatic and fuel moisture conditions. We apply the process-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to evaluate the role of future fire on the carbon dynamics of boreal North America in the context of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration and climate in the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios of the CGCM2 global climate model. Relative to the last decade of the 20th century, decadal total carbon emissions from fire increase by 2.5-4.4 times by 2091-2100, depending on the climate scenario and assumptions about CO 2 fertilization. Larger fire emissions occur with warmer climates or if CO 2 fertilization is assumed to occur. Despite the increases in fire emissions, our simulations indicate that boreal North America will be a carbon sink over the 21st century if CO 2 fertilization is assumed to occur in the future. In contrast, simulations excluding CO 2 fertilization over the same period indicate that the region will change to a carbon source to the atmosphere, with the source being 2.1 times greater under the warmer A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. To improve estimates of wildfire on terrestrial carbon dynamics in boreal North America, future studies should incorporate the role of dynamic vegetation to represent more accurately post-fire successional processes, incorporate fire severity parameters that change in time and space, account for human influences through increased fire suppression, and integrate the role of other disturbances and their interactions with future fire regime.

show abstract

Spatial distribution of carbon sources and sinks in Canada’s forests

Cited by 70 publications

References 37 publications

Simulations show decreasing carbon stocks and potential for carbon emissions in Rocky Mountain forests over the next century

Simulations show decreasing carbon stocks and potential for carbon emissions in Rocky Mountain forests over the next century

Quantifying uncertainty from large‐scale model predictions of forest carbon dynamics

Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About