Spatial changes to climatic suitability and availability of agropastoral farming systems across Kenya (1980–2020)

Abstract

Productive global agriculture is under a convergence of pressures, and particularly climate change and population growth. The impact is especially stark in East Africa where crop production is mostly rain-fed and population growth rates are among the highest in the world. Our objective for this study was to understand how climate change and population growth have impacted the size of agropastoral areas across Kenya over 40 years. Climate-suitable areas for all primary crops decreased 28% over the study period. Climate-suitable areas for primary crops increased 3% in highly productive counties, decreased 25% in moderately productive counties, and decreased 62% in low productive counties. Climate-suitable areas over the study period decreased 13% for ranching areas, 21% for dairying areas, 24% for mixed crop and ranching areas, and 28% for mixed crop and dairying areas, while climate-suitable areas for pastoralism increased 12%. Population across Kenya more than tripled over the study period, while population relative to climate-suitable areas for crops increased nearly fourfold, and population relative to climate-suitable areas for pastoralism nearly tripled. Population relative to available climate-suitable areas for crops more than doubled in highly productive counties, increased more than four-fold in moderately productive counties, and was nearly 15 times higher in low productive counties. Examining the cumulative effects of climate change and population growth on agricultural sectors across Kenya can help to develop policies and strategies to reach the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

MERS-Coronavirus across Kenya: a spatial examination of social and environmental drivers

“…Recent findings have shown that the expanding arid regions of Kenya have reduced agricultural land use and increased the reliance on pastoralism, and particularly camel rearing (Lawrence et al, 2023a). Also, the increasing trend in air temperatures has resulted in decreased rainfed agricultural production, and further leading to increased pastoralism (Lawrence et al, 2023b). As a consequence, these effects of climate change may continue to pose a major challenge in creating favorable conditions for the emergence and transmission of viral zoonotic diseases resulting in the observed high seropositivity rates of MERS-CoV.…”

“…Smallholder farmers dominate the livestock sector in Kenya with three main livestock production systems: pastoral; dairying; and ranching (Cecchi et al, 2010). Additionally, agricultural and livelihood practices in Kenya are tightly linked to agro-climatic zones (ACZs), which are the delineation of landscapes into regions with relatively homogeneous and contiguous areas based on similar climate characteristics (Boitt et al 2014; Kogo et al 2021; Lawrence et al, 2023a,b; (Recha, 2019)). Primarily, the ACZs in Kenya represent a temperature gradient from alpine, to temperate, to tropical regions, and a moisture gradient from humid to arid regions (Gikonyo et al, 2018).…”

“…Seldom, the influence of climate and agricultural land use have been examined related to emerging infectious diseases in a spatially explicit way at regional scales. This is especially true for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) that is prevalent in dromedary camels across Kenya where climate and agricultural land-use change are conspicuous (Lawrence et al, 2023a,b).…”

Feeding cattle under suboptimal conditions in Kenya: From emphasising technical (non-)adoption to stimulating adaptive performance

“…This study was conducted in a sedentary agricultural area, Chepalungu Subcounty in the south of Bomet County (Figure 1). In recent decades, the region has experienced climate zone characteristic shifts: temperature increases and changing precipitation patterns (Lawrence et al, 2023a), affecting the climatic suitability of agropastoral farming systems (Lawrence et al, 2023b), and others. Typically, there are two rainy and two dry seasons throughout the year, starting with a dry period from January to mid-March, then rains until May, another drier period until October, and rains in November and December (The County Government of Bomet, 2022).…”

Accommodating diverse actors and practices in the climate-development nexus : The case of Kenya’s dairy sector

“…This study was conducted in a sedentary agricultural area, Chepalungu subcounty in the south of Bomet county (Figure 4.1). In recent decades, the region has experienced climate zone characteristic shifts: temperature increases and changing precipitation patterns (Lawrence et al, 2023a), affecting climatic suitability of agropastoral farming systems (Lawrence et al, 2023b), and others. Typically, there are two rainy and two dry seasons throughout the year, starting with a dry period from January to mid-March, then rains until May, another drier period until October, and rains in November and December (Bomet county government, 2018).…”