Spatial and Temporal Variability in Tidal Range: Evidence, Causes, and Effects

Hill, David F.

doi:10.1007/s40641-016-0044-8

Cited by 25 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 126 publications

(84 reference statements)

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“…As Hill () points out, paleo–time scales have occupied much of the attention of past modeling work on large‐scale changes in tides (section ), while navigational impacts over the last few centuries have been a primary focus of local modeling and data analysis (section ). However, recent studies have been increasingly geared toward prediction of future changes in tides over the 21st century and beyond, motivated by concerns regarding climate change, particularly MSL rise (e.g., Holleman & Stacey, ) and changes in coastal flooding (see section ).…”

Section: Future Changes In Tides and Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Tides They Are A‐Changin': A Comprehensive Review of Past and Future Nonastronomical Changes in Tides, Their Driving Mechanisms, and Future Implications

Haigh

Pickering

Green

et al. 2020

Reviews of Geophysics

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175

173

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Scientists and engineers have observed for some time that tidal amplitudes at many locations are shifting considerably due to nonastronomical factors. Here we review comprehensively these important changes in tidal properties, many of which remain poorly understood. Over long geological time scales, tectonic processes drive variations in basin size, depth, and shape and hence the resonant properties of ocean basins. On shorter geological time scales, changes in oceanic tidal properties are dominated by variations in water depth. A growing number of studies have identified widespread, sometimes regionally coherent, positive, and negative trends in tidal constituents and levels during the 19th, 20th, and early 21st centuries. Determining the causes is challenging because a tide measured at a coastal gauge integrates the effects of local, regional, and oceanic changes. Here, we highlight six main factors that can cause changes in measured tidal statistics on local scales and a further eight possible regional/global driving mechanisms. Since only a few studies have combined observations and models, or modeled at a temporal/spatial resolution capable of resolving both ultralocal and large‐scale global changes, the individual contributions from local and regional mechanisms remain uncertain. Nonetheless, modeling studies project that sea level rise and climate change will continue to alter tides over the next several centuries, with regionally coherent modes of change caused by alterations to coastal morphology and ice sheet extent. Hence, a better understanding of the causes and consequences of tidal variations is needed to help assess the implications for coastal defense, risk assessment, and ecological change.

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Section: Future Changes In Tides and Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Tides They Are A‐Changin': A Comprehensive Review of Past and Future Nonastronomical Changes in Tides, Their Driving Mechanisms, and Future Implications

Haigh

Pickering

Green

et al. 2020

Reviews of Geophysics

Self Cite

175

173

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“…Several factors have been discussed as responsible for changes in the tidal characteristics observed in other regions. At global scale, these factors are the rise of MSL and changes in ocean stratification, while at local scale morphological changes (i.e., dredging, land reclamation) can also modify tide characteristics ( see e.g., Woodworth, 2010;Müller, 2011;Devlin et al, 2014;Hill, 2016).…”

Section: Tidal Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While trying to assess changes in extreme WLs tides have been assumed to remain constant, although some recent studies have reported significant positive and negative trends in tidal levels and tidal constituents in most regions of the world (Woodworth and Blackman, 2004;Jay, 2009;Ray, 2009;Haigh et al, 2010;Woodworth, 2010;Müller, 2011;Feng et al, 2015;Mawdsley et al, 2015;Hill, 2016). However, secular tidal changes in Buenos Aires and Mar del Plata have not yet been analyzed and have therefore not been considered in previous studies on the trends and variability of storm surges Fiore et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Trends and Variability of Water Levels and Tides in Buenos Aires and Mar del Plata, Argentina

Santamaria-Aguilar¹,

Schuerch

Vafeidis³

et al. 2017

Front. Mar. Sci.

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We present an analysis of the long-term trends and variability of extreme water and tidal levels and the main tidal constituents using long-term records from two tide gauges in the wider region of the Rio de la Plata estuary: Buenos Aires (1905Aires ( -2013 and Mar del Plata (1956. We find significant long-term trends in both tidal levels and the main tidal constituents (M2, S2, K1, O1, and the overtide M4) from a running harmonic analysis in both locations. The tidal range decreased on average 0.63 mm y −1 , as a result of an increase of the low water levels and a decrease of the high water levels. We also find a secular decrease in the amplitude of the semi-diurnal constituents and an increase of the diurnal ones, but of different magnitudes at each location, which suggests that different processes are producing these changes. In Buenos Aires, an increase of river discharge into the estuary seems to reduce the tidal range by hampering the propagation of the tidal wave into the estuary, whereas no influence of river discharge on water and tidal levels can be detected in Mar del Plata. We believe that other factors such as thermohaline changes or the rise of mean sea-level may be responsible for the observed tidal range decrease. Despite the tidal long-term trends, we find no significant trends in the meteorological component of the tide-gauge records other than an increase in the mean sea-level. In addition, we explore teleconnections between the variability of the meteorological component of the tide-gauge records and climate drivers.

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“…could match observed trends but only by invoking an unphysically large subsidence rate, centered at the shelf break, to their adopted bathymetry.) It seems likely that additional factors (e.g., Hill, ), perhaps related to secular changes in ocean stratification (Müller, ), may be playing a role.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nineteenth‐Century Tides in the Gulf of Maine and Implications for Secular Trends

Ray

Talke

2019

JGR Oceans

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Since the early twentieth century, the amplitudes of tidal constituents in the Gulf of Maine and Bay of Fundy display clear secular trends that are among the largest anywhere observed for a regional body of water. The M2 amplitude at Eastport, Maine, increased at a rate of 14.1 ± 1.2 cm per century until it temporarily dropped during 1980–1990, apparently in response to changes in the wider North Atlantic. Annual tidal analyses indicate M2 reached an all‐time high amplitude last year (2018). Here we report new estimates of tides derived from nineteenth century water‐level measurements found in the U.S. National Archives. Results from Eastport, Portland, and Pulpit Harbor (tied to Bar Harbor) do not follow the twentieth century trends and indicate that the Gulf of Maine tide changes commenced sometime in the late nineteenth or early twentieth centuries, coincident with a transition to modern rates of sea‐level rise as observed at Boston and Portland. General agreement is that sea level rise alone is insufficient to cause the twentieth‐century tide changes. A role for ocean stratification is suggested by the long‐term warming of Gulf of Maine waters; archival water temperatures at Boston, Portland, and Eastport show increases of ∼2 °C since the 1880s. In addition, a changing seasonal dependence in M2 amplitudes is reflected in a changing seasonal dependence in water temperatures. The observations suggest that models seeking to reproduce Gulf of Maine tides must consider both sea level rise and long‐term changes in stratification.

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Spatial and Temporal Variability in Tidal Range: Evidence, Causes, and Effects

Cited by 25 publications

References 126 publications

The Tides They Are A‐Changin': A Comprehensive Review of Past and Future Nonastronomical Changes in Tides, Their Driving Mechanisms, and Future Implications

The Tides They Are A‐Changin': A Comprehensive Review of Past and Future Nonastronomical Changes in Tides, Their Driving Mechanisms, and Future Implications

Long-Term Trends and Variability of Water Levels and Tides in Buenos Aires and Mar del Plata, Argentina

Nineteenth‐Century Tides in the Gulf of Maine and Implications for Secular Trends

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