Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Heavy Hourly Rainfall in the United States

Hitchens, Nathan M.; Brooks, Harold E.; Schumacher, Russ S.

doi:10.1175/mwr-d-12-00297.1

Cited by 47 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…3b). A similar monthly distribution of EPEs in the central and eastern United States has been documented by prior studies (e.g., Maddox et al 1979;Brooks and Stensrud 2000;Schumacher and Johnson 2006;Hitchens et al 2013). Strong-IVT EPEs occurred most frequently in spring and autumn and least frequently in summer, whereas weak-IVT EPEs occurred most frequently in summer and least frequently in winter (Fig.…”

Section: A Interannual Monthly and Diurnal Variabilitysupporting

confidence: 84%

“…It is, therefore, likely that many events in prior rain gauge-based climatologies were undersampled or completely missed (e.g., Brooks and Stensrud 2000). Hitchens et al (2012Hitchens et al ( , 2013) demonstrated a solution to this problem by utilizing high-resolution gridded multisensor precipitation datasets with homogeneous spatial coverage to examine heavy hourly precipitation over portions of the central and eastern United States. In the current study, we utilize gridded 24-h precipitation analyses from, as in Hitchens et al (2013), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) stage-IV multisensor precipitation dataset (Lin and Mitchell 2005) to construct a 10-yr climatology of EPEs in the SEUS.…”

Section: A Motivation and Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hitchens et al (2012Hitchens et al ( , 2013) demonstrated a solution to this problem by utilizing high-resolution gridded multisensor precipitation datasets with homogeneous spatial coverage to examine heavy hourly precipitation over portions of the central and eastern United States. In the current study, we utilize gridded 24-h precipitation analyses from, as in Hitchens et al (2013), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) stage-IV multisensor precipitation dataset (Lin and Mitchell 2005) to construct a 10-yr climatology of EPEs in the SEUS. Our objectives in constructing this climatology are threefold: 1) to document the temporal, spatial, and environmental characteristics of EPEs; 2) to examine through composite analysis synoptic-scale patterns associated with EPEs; and 3) to briefly assess numerical model QPF skill associated with subsets of EPEs.…”

Section: A Motivation and Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several prior studies (e.g., Johnson 2005, 2006;Kunkel et al 2012) have identified EPEs in the United States using the historical gauge-based recurrence interval precipitation thresholds calculated by Hershfield (1961), while others (e.g., Brooks and Stensrud 2000;Ralph and Dettinger 2012;Hitchens et al 2012Hitchens et al , 2013 have used fixed precipitation thresholds. We opted to use geographically varying upper quantiles of daily (24-h period ending 1200 UTC) precipitation amount, similar to Ralph et al (2010) and Sukovich et al (2014).…”

Section: B Identification Of Epes From the Stage-iv Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climatology and Environmental Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Southeastern United States

Moore

Mahoney

Sukovich

et al. 2015

Monthly Weather Review

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This paper documents the characteristics of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in the southeastern United States (SEUS) during 2002-11. The EPEs are identified by applying an object-based method to 24-h precipitation analyses from the NCEP stage-IV dataset. It is found that EPEs affected the SEUS in all months and occurred most frequently in the western portion of the SEUS during the cool season and in the eastern portion during the warm season. The EPEs associated with tropical cyclones, although less common, tended to be larger in size, more intense, and longer lived than ''nontropical'' EPEs. Nontropical EPEs in the warm season, relative to those in the cool season, tended to be smaller in size and typically involved more moist, conditionally unstable conditions but weaker dynamical influences. Synoptic-scale composites are constructed for nontropical EPEs stratified by the magnitude of vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) to examine distinct scenarios for the occurrence of EPEs. The composite results indicate that ''strong IVT'' EPEs occur within high-amplitude flow patterns involving strong transport of moist, conditionally unstable air within the warm sector of a cyclone, whereas ''weak IVT'' EPEs occur within low-amplitude flow patterns featuring weak transport but very moist and conditionally unstable conditions. Finally, verification of deterministic precipitation forecasts from a reforecast dataset based on the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System reveals that weak-IVT EPEs were characteristically associated with lower forecast skill than strong-IVT EPEs. Based on these results, it is suggested that further research should be conducted to investigate the forecast challenges associated with EPEs in the SEUS.

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Section: A Interannual Monthly and Diurnal Variabilitysupporting

confidence: 84%

Section: A Motivation and Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A Motivation and Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: B Identification Of Epes From the Stage-iv Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climatology and Environmental Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Southeastern United States

Moore

Mahoney

Sukovich

et al. 2015

Monthly Weather Review

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“…(25.4 mm) h 21 using the Hourly Precipitation Dataset from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Hitchens et al (2013) reexamined the Brooks and Stensrud study, for the area spanning the eastern two-thirds of the United States, with the inclusion of radar rainfall estimates from two highresolution precipitation datasets: a 10-yr period of NCEP's stage-IV precipitation analysis and a 3-yr period of the Next Generation Multisensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimate (Q2). Extreme rainfall events for the Konrad study were determined by ranking the highest mean 2-day precipitation over various spatial scales from 2500 to 500 000 km 2 and over four regions in the eastern United States.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A 10-Year Survey of Extreme Rainfall Events in the Central and Eastern United States Using Gridded Multisensor Precipitation Analyses

Stevenson

Schumacher

2014

Monthly Weather Review

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Extreme rainfall events in the central and eastern United States during 2002-11 were identified using NCEP stage-IV precipitation analyses. Precipitation amounts were compared against established 50-and 100-yr recurrence interval thresholds for 1-, 6-, and 24-h durations. The authors identified points where analyzed precipitation exceeded the threshold, and combined points associated with the same weather system into events. At shorter durations, points exceeding the thresholds were most common in the Southeast, whereas points were more uniformly distributed for the 24-h duration. Most 24-h events have more points than the other durations, reflecting the importance of organized precipitation systems on longer temporal scales. Though monthly peaks varied by region, the maximum (minimum) usually occurred during the summer (winter); however, the 24-h point maximum occurred in September owing to tropical cyclones. The maximum (minimum) in hourly extreme rainfall points occurred at 2300 (1100) LST, though there were regional differences in the timing of the diurnal maxima and minima. Over half of 100-yr, 24-h events were a result of mesoscale convective systems (MCS), with synoptic and tropical systems responsible for nearly one-third and one-tenth, respectively. Of the 10 events with the most points exceeding this threshold, 5 were associated with tropical cyclones, 3 were synoptic events, and 2 were MCSs. Among the MCS events, 7 of the top 10 were training line/adjoining stratiform (TL/AS). While the 49 TL/AS events investigated further had similar moisture availability, the more widespread events had stronger low-level winds, stronger warm air advection, and stronger and more expansive frontogenesis in the inflow.

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Examining future changes in the character of Central U.S. warm‐season precipitation using dynamical downscaling

Harding

Snyder

2014

JGR Atmospheres

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Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of hydrological extremes, producing more droughts and heavy rainfall events globally. How warm-season precipitation extremes will change over the Central U.S. is unclear because most coarse spatial resolution global climate models inadequately simulate hydrological extremes resulting from convective precipitation. However, the higher spatial resolution from dynamical downscaling potentially enables improved projections of future changes in extreme rainfall events. In this study, we downscaled two models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) using the Weather Research and Forecasting model for one historical period (1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999), two future periods (2040)(2041)(2042)(2043)(2044)(2045)(2046)(2047)(2048)(2049)(2090)(2091)(2092)(2093)(2094)(2095)(2096)(2097)(2098)(2099) in a midrange emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5), and one period (2090-2099) in a high emissions (RCP8.5) scenario. The diurnal cycle, extremes, and averages of precipitation in historical simulations compare well with observations. While the future change in the total amount of precipitation is unclear, model simulations suggest that summer rainfall will be less frequent, but more intense when precipitation does occur. Significant intensification of the heaviest rainfall events occurs in the models, with the greatest changes in the early warm season (April). Increases in total April-July rainfall and the enhancement of extreme rainfall events in the RCP8.5 2090s are related to a stronger Great Plains Low-Level Jet (GPLLJ) during those months. Conversely, late warm-season drying over the North Central U.S. is present in nearly all future simulations, with increased drought in August-September associated with a slight weakening of the GPLLJ. Simulated trends generally increase with stronger greenhouse gas forcing.

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Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Heavy Hourly Rainfall in the United States

Cited by 47 publications

References 11 publications

Climatology and Environmental Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Southeastern United States

Climatology and Environmental Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Southeastern United States

A 10-Year Survey of Extreme Rainfall Events in the Central and Eastern United States Using Gridded Multisensor Precipitation Analyses

Examining future changes in the character of Central U.S. warm‐season precipitation using dynamical downscaling

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