Spatial and interspecific variability in phenological responses to warming temperatures

Primack, Richard B.; Ibáñez, Inés; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi; Lee, Sang Don; Miller‐Rushing, Abraham J.; Wilson, Arnold; Silander, John A.

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2009.06.003

Cited by 210 publications

(195 citation statements)

References 41 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

182

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Although records of phenological events have thus far been used to document species responses to recent global warming (e.g. Dunn & Winkler 1999;Fitter & Fitter 2002;Menzel et al 2006), they can also be used to forecast phenological trends under future climate scenarios and at locations for which we do not have any records (Primack et al 2009). However, such forecasting is difficult for at least two reasons.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, such forecasting is difficult for at least two reasons. First, recent analyses have shown that species' responses to temperature can vary significantly among sites, suggesting that phenological changes at one location may not always be good indicators of changes at other locations (Sparks et al 2005;Menzel et al 2006;Gordo & Sanz 2009;Primack et al 2009). This spatial variability poses particular challenges to forecasting at locations for which few or no data are available.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In particular, winter temperatures warmed by an average of 1.28C from 1953 to 2005, with higher rates of warming in areas with particularly high human populations (Primack et al 2009). There was, however, no latitudinal trend in warming-higher latitudes did not warm more than lower latitudes (Primack et al 2009). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Forecasting phenology under global warming

Ibáñez

Primack

Miller‐Rushing

et al. 2010

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

Self Cite

244

146

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953 -2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Forecasting phenology under global warming

Ibáñez

Primack

Miller‐Rushing

et al. 2010

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

Self Cite

244

146

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Moreover, insect phenology has shown a steeper advance than plant phenology in the last decades, especially in spring and summer (Gordo & Sanz, 2005). However, it is still hard to make generalizations, as the effect of global warming for one species at one location may be different from that elsewhere (Primack & al., 2009).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flowering patterns of <i>Thymelaea velutina</i> at the extremes of an altitudinal gradient

Bandera¹,

Traveset²

2013

Anal. Jard. Bot. Madr.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Environmental variability may cause changes in flowering phenology affecting plant reproductive success. Plasticity in phenological processes may guarantee species survival under new environmental conditions, such as those caused by global warming. Here we examined the flowering patterns of Thymelaea velutina (Thymelaeaceae), a dioecious shrub endemic to the Balearic Islands. We compared the two contrasting habitats where the species occurs: coastal dunes at sea level and mountain areas (c. 1200 m a.s.l.). We determined the relationship between three components of flowering phenology: initial date, flower duration, and synchrony, and assessed their association with traits describing plant size and fecundity. The increase in altitude results into a delayed flowering initiation and a shorter flowering period. In both habitats, male plants flowered earlier and for longer periods than females. At the mountain site, fruit set was associated to flower initiation, so that plants flowering earlier produced greater proportions of fruits. By contrast, fruit set at the dune site did not depend upon either flower initiation or flowering period; here, larger plants had longer flowering periods, though not necessarily produced more flowers and did not set more fruits than smaller plants. We attribute the differences in flowering patterns at different altitudes to phenotypic plasticity of the species; it is adapted to mountain conditions delaying the flowering period (probably adjusting it to the insect abundance at this altitude). Moreover, shortening of the flowering period may be also advantageous to reduce the stressful effects of higher temperature, radiation and drought that occur later in the summer.

show abstract

“…However, recent studies (Richardson and O'Keefe, 2009;Vitasse and Basler, 2014) revealed a significant discrepancy of the phenological phases between young and adult trees, mainly due to the different ontogenetic stage (Vitasse and Basler, 2013). In addition, the phenological response of a single species to the current global warming is also influenced by the spatial location as site conditions have altered the intra-population genetic variability (Primack et al, 2009). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of soil warming and nitrogen foliar applications on bud burst of black spruce

Barba

Rossi

Deslauriers

et al. 2015

Trees

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The observation of phenological events can be used as biological indicator of environmental changes, especially from the perspective of climate change. In boreal forests, the onset of the bud burst is a key factor in the length of the growing season. With current climate change, the major factors limiting the growth of boreal trees (i.e., temperature and nitrogen availability) are changing and studies on mature trees are limited. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of soil warming and increased nitrogen ( 3

show abstract

Spatial and interspecific variability in phenological responses to warming temperatures

Cited by 210 publications

References 41 publications

Forecasting phenology under global warming

Forecasting phenology under global warming

Flowering patterns of <i>Thymelaea velutina</i> at the extremes of an altitudinal gradient

Effects of soil warming and nitrogen foliar applications on bud burst of black spruce

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About