Spatial analysis of contemporary Turkish elections: a comprehensive approach

Özen, İlhan Can; Kalkan, Kerem Ozan

doi:10.1080/14683849.2016.1259576

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 17 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Wuthrich (2015) examines Turkish general elections and observes tendencies towards pragmatism in the voting behavior of Turkish voters. Özen and Kalkan (2017) focus on the geographical patterns of party votes and competition in Turkey using spatial models.…”

Section: Local Elections In Turkey 2019 Local Elections and Yenimahallementioning

confidence: 99%

Seçim Coğrafyasına Yeni Bir Yaklaşım Olarak Sosyal Medya Veri Madenciliği

Oğlakcı,

Uzun

2024

Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Sosyal medyada yer alan bireysel söylemler ve tutumlar, sahip oldukları mekânsal-zamansal bilgilerle birlikte seçim coğrafyası için kullanıldığında seçmen davranışları ve oy tercihleri hakkında önemli ipuçları sağlayabilmektedir. Sosyal medya verilerini kullanan seçim odaklı farklı çalışmalar olsa da bu çalışmalar oyların ardındaki nedenleri mekânsal olarak anlamaktan uzak kalmıştır. Bu araştırma, seçim coğrafyası alanı için yeni sayılabilecek veri ve yöntemleri kullanarak seçmen davranışı ve oy vermedeki farklılıkları anlamayı, oy verme üzerindeki bağlamsal etkileri ortaya çıkarmayı amaçlamaktadır. Araştırmada Twitter-X üzerinde Yenimahalle (Türkiye) ilçesinden paylaşılan seçim odaklı tweetleri elde ediyor, duygu durumlarını belirliyor, tweetlerdeki baskın konuları tespit ediyor ve adayların Twitter-X üzerindeki popülerlik oranları ile gerçek oy oranları arasındaki ilişkiyi ortaya koyuyoruz. Sonuç olarak, Twitter-X üzerinde kullanıcılar tarafından oluşturulan mekân-zamansal veriler, seçmen davranışı/katılımı ve oy vermedeki farklılıkları anlamanın yanı sıra oy verme üzerindeki bağlam etkilerinin ortaya çıkarılmasında önemli bir yer tutmaktadır.

show abstract

Section: Local Elections In Turkey 2019 Local Elections and Yenimahallementioning

confidence: 99%

Seçim Coğrafyasına Yeni Bir Yaklaşım Olarak Sosyal Medya Veri Madenciliği

Oğlakcı,

Uzun

2024

Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Although the peripheral groups mentioned above exhibit spatial and regional patterns, the literature on voting behavior in the Turkish context has not adequately explored the spatial dimension of explanations. There is just one research study that has investigated the spatial effects on political competition in Turkey while it does not attempt to establish a spatial voting model for Turkey's elections (Ozen and Kalkan, 2017).…”

Section: Political Cleavages In Turkeymentioning

confidence: 99%

Beliefs, economics, and spatial regimes in voting behavior: the Turkish case, 2007–2018

Gündem

2023

Humanit Soc Sci Commun

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) came to power in 2002, and since then has never received <34% of nationwide voter support in Turkish general elections. Recent research focuses on the Economic Voting Theorem (EVT), specifically the varieties of pocketbook or sociotropic voting, as the primary explanation for the AKP’s successive electoral victories. However, this approach fails to adequately explain the ongoing electoral support for the AKP at both national and local levels, even under poor economic performance. It also fails to consider the impact of the spatial components of peripheral sociologies. This study employs the comparative method with EVT and Center–Periphery (C–P) phenomena in order to understand the dominant characteristics of voting behavior from a spatial perspective. Although EVT and C–P explanations take part in the literature, a limited number of studies measure and visualize the impact of those from a spatial perspective. In order to distinguish between the effects of EVT and C–P the study utilizes an original data set that measures different socio-economic factors such as per capita growth, unemployment, inflation, education, age, religious conservatism, ethnicity, and space both at the national and local levels. The results, contrary to expectations, show that the main drivers of voting behavior for the AKP consist of a mix of both C–P and EVT while C–P factors have a greater impact. In comparison to the EVT, C–P features such as religious conservatism and ethnicity perform better as predictors of the AKP’s electoral performance than the national and local economic conditions. Also, spatial results imply that support for the AKP has different spatial regimes based on ethnic identity and there are no spatial spillovers between spatial regimes in terms of voting behavior.

show abstract

“…These vignettes also represent the geographical variation in the Turkish party system and electoral cleavages (Ozen & Kalkan, 2017). Table I demonstrates that while AKP held about half of the district municipalities at the time of the four general elections we examine, its main competitor differs across the regions.…”

Section: Terrorism Elections and The Local Response In Turkeymentioning

confidence: 99%

Avoiding fallout from terrorist attacks: The role of local politics and governments

Arı

Bayer

Kemahlıoğlu

et al. 2022

Journal of Peace Research

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Even though violent attacks resulting in civilian fatalities can be seen as constituting failure on the part of the incumbent party to provide security to citizens, governments are not always punished electorally. Rather, at times, they appear to gain votes following terrorist attacks. Here we argue that political parties that can take advantage of their local presence to frame and communicate their narrative in response to terrorism, can better manage to avoid blame and even to emerge victorious in times of violent conflict. The AKP in Turkey is one such important example. Our statistical analyses of municipality-level aggregate election results show that the party not only maintained national incumbency, but even strengthened its predominance in the political system in the face of growing security threats. In municipalities where AKP controlled the local government and hence municipal resources, the party did not lose votes following terrorist attacks. This finding remains even when we consider past voting, regional variations, competitive districts, and ethnicity. Our argument that incumbents can avoid punishment through their capacity to reach out to voters at the local level is also supported by individual-level survey data and the comparison with neighboring municipalities. As such, we highlight how local government control can be consequential for national politics, including periods when security dominates the national agenda.

show abstract

Spatial analysis of contemporary Turkish elections: a comprehensive approach

Cited by 10 publications

References 17 publications

Seçim Coğrafyasına Yeni Bir Yaklaşım Olarak Sosyal Medya Veri Madenciliği

Seçim Coğrafyasına Yeni Bir Yaklaşım Olarak Sosyal Medya Veri Madenciliği

Beliefs, economics, and spatial regimes in voting behavior: the Turkish case, 2007–2018

Avoiding fallout from terrorist attacks: The role of local politics and governments

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About