Spanish Renewable Energy Generation Short-Term Forecast

Pérez-Mora, Nicolás; Martínez-Moll, Víctor; Canals, Vincent

doi:10.18086/swc.2015.07.10

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…The forecast for the following three hours, with a time resolution of fifteen minutes has been based on an Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model with eXogenous input (ARIMAX). ARIMAX is a multivariate version of the time series method ARIMA and its use in PV power forecasting has been explored by only a few authors so far, such as Zhou et al [13], Bacher et al [17], Perez-Mora et al [18]. ARIMA method is a generalization of ARMA modelling with the advantage of handling nonstationary time series.…”

Section: Very Short-term Forecastmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This issue can be addressed with the multivariate versions of time series models, such as the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model with eXogenous input (ARIMAX). To the best of authors' knowledge, only few authors have explored the latter methodology for PV power forecasting applications, such as Zhou et al [13], Bacher et al [17], Perez-Mora et al [18] and Li et al [19], even if it seems a cost-effective forecasting system with good performances.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Exploitation of a New Short-Term Multimodel Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Method in the Very Short-Term Horizon to Derive a Multi-Time Scale Forecasting System

Collino

Ronzio

2021

Energies

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The relentless spread of photovoltaic production drives searches of smart approaches to mitigate unbalances in power demand and supply, instability on the grid and ensuring stable revenues to the producer. Because of the development of energy markets with multiple time sessions, there is a growing need of power forecasting for multiple time steps, from fifteen minutes up to days ahead. To address this issue, in this study both a short-term-horizon of three days and a very-short-term-horizon of three hours photovoltaic production forecasting methods are presented. The short-term is based on a multimodel approach and referred to several configurations of the Analog Ensemble method, using the weather forecast of four numerical weather prediction models. The very-short-term consists of an Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model with eXogenous input (ARIMAX) that uses the short-term power forecast and the irradiance from satellite elaborations as exogenous variables. The methods, applied for one year to four small-scale grid-connected plants in Italy, have obtained promising improvements with respect to refence methods. The time horizon after which the short-term was able to outperform the very-short-term has also been analyzed. The study also revealed the usefulness of satellite data on cloudiness to properly interpret the results of the performance analysis.

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Section: Very Short-term Forecastmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploitation of a New Short-Term Multimodel Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Method in the Very Short-Term Horizon to Derive a Multi-Time Scale Forecasting System

Collino

Ronzio

2021

Energies

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“…In order to operate the power plant efficiently, it is required to forecast accurately the solar generation from the field. To achieve such estimation for ST generation, it is needed to forecast the solar irradiation and take into consideration the aging of the solar collectors . The forecast information can be used on a power plant simulator aiming to improve generation strategies, reduce generation expenses, and maximize revenues in generation.…”

Section: District Coolingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar district heating and cooling: A review

et al. 2017

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Summary Both district heating and solar collector systems have been known and implemented for many years. However, the combination of the two, with solar collectors supplying heat to the district heating network, is relatively new, and no comprehensive review of scientific publications on this topic could be found. Thus, this paper summarizes the literature available on solar district heating and presents the state of the art and real experiences in this field. Given the lack of a generally accepted convention on the classification of solar district heating systems, this paper distinguishes centralized and decentralized solar district heating as well as block heating. For the different technologies, the paper describes commonly adopted control strategies, system configurations, types of installation, and integration. Real‐world examples are also given to provide a more detailed insight into how solar thermal technology can be integrated with district heating. Solar thermal technology combined with thermally driven chillers to provide cooling for cooling networks is also included in this paper. In order for a technology to spread successfully, not only technical but also economic issues need to be tackled. Hence, the paper identifies and describes different types of ownership and financing schemes currently used in this field.

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Spanish Renewable Energy Generation Short-Term Forecast

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Exploitation of a New Short-Term Multimodel Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Method in the Very Short-Term Horizon to Derive a Multi-Time Scale Forecasting System

Exploitation of a New Short-Term Multimodel Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Method in the Very Short-Term Horizon to Derive a Multi-Time Scale Forecasting System

Solar district heating and cooling: A review

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