Sozioökonomische Schätzungen olympischer Medaillengewinne

Maennig, Wolfgang; Wellbrock, Christian-Mathias

doi:10.1007/bf03356075

Cited by 24 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Such effect was mentioned, for example, when explaining why the British team was so successful (47 medals) at the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Maennig and Wellbrock (2008) tested a so-called "Great Britain will host the 2012 Olympics" variable as significantly positive.…”

Section: Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting National Medal Totals at the Summer Olympic Games Reconsidered

Scelles

Andreff

Bonnal

et al. 2020

Social Science Quarterly

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Objective This article aims at explaining national medal totals at the 1992–2016 Summer Olympic Games (n = 1,289 observations) and forecasting them in 2016 (based on 1992–2012 data) and 2020 with a set of variables similar to previous studies, as well as a regional (subcontinents) variable not tested previously in the literature in English. Method Econometric testing not only resorts to a Tobit model as usual but also to a Hurdle model. Results Most variables have a significant impact on national team medal totals; it appears to be negative for most regions other than North America except Western Europe and Oceania (not significant). Then, two models (Tobit and Hurdle) are implemented to forecast national medal totals at the 2016 and 2020 Summer Olympics. Conclusion Both models are complementary for the 2016 forecast. The 2020 forecast is consistent with Olympic Medals Predictions, although some striking differences are found.

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Section: Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting National Medal Totals at the Summer Olympic Games Reconsidered

Scelles

Andreff

Bonnal

et al. 2020

Social Science Quarterly

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“…Early preparation of a super-competitive team for the 2012 London Olympics may have been the cause for higher than expected outcomes of the British team, as it is suggested by Maennig and Wellebrock (2008) who have introduced a 'next Olympics host country' variable in their prediction. However, such future host country effect slightly improves the authors' forecast: 38 predicted medals as against 47 won by Great Britain.…”

Section: Predicting Medal Wins At Beijing Olympics: Comparison With Omentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It has been empirically verified that the number of medals a nation can make at Summer Games significantly depends on its population and GDP per inhabitant (Andreff, 2001). In the past decade, various papers started providing economic predictions of medal distribution per nation at the next Olympic Games (Bernard, 2008;Bernard and Busse, 2004;Ali, 2004, 2008;Maennig and Wellebrock, 2008;Wang and Jiang, 2008). Our own model has exactly predicted 70%, and correctly (with a small error margin) 88% of medal win totals per nation at the 2008 Beijing Olympics Andreff, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic development as major determinant of Olympic medal wins: predicting performances of Russian and Chinese teams at Sochi Games

Andreff¹

2013

IJEPEE

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Abstract:Starting from an econometric model successfully used to explain and then predict the distribution of medal wins across nations at the Beijing Summer Olympics, a similar model is elaborated on with some different explanatory variables for estimating the determinants of medals won per nation at Winter Games. A Tobit estimation of the model based on data from 1964 to 2010 shows that GDP per capita, population, the endowment in ski and winter sports resorts, and a host country dummy are significant determinants of medal wins at Winter Olympics. Then the estimated model is used for predicting the sporting outcomes at the 2014 Sochi Games with a focus on Russia and China. The Russian team is expected to perform better than in Vancouver 2010 and to be ranked fourth behind the USA, Germany and Canada while the Chinese team would be ranked ninth, a performance doomed to improve in the future given China's swift economic development.

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“…In general, countries with more sport‐minded cultures (Hoffmann, Ging, and Ramasamy, , ) and sport‐specific histories (Macmillan and Smith, ) seem to be more successful in international sports. A number of scholars found that past success exerts a positive impact (Bernard and Busse, ; Maennig and Wellbrock, ), which indicates that success in international sport is to some extent persistent (Emrich and Pierdzioch, ). Although many scholars ignore the role of doping as a source of sporting success, Pierdzioch, Emrich, and Klein () as well as Noland and Stahler (, ) have provided evidence that doping accounted substantially for East German successes.…”

Section: Theoretical Background: From the Study Of Macrosocial Determmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the analyses provide little insight on how to develop a more coherent theoretical model of sports policy factors that lead to international sporting success (De Bosscher et al., ). Once more it becomes evident that more detailed indicators on the features of elite sport systems are needed (Maennig and Wellbrock, ).…”

Section: Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Superior Sporting Performance in Athletics: Determinants and Sustainability

Meier

Jetzke

Nagm

et al. 2019

Social Science Quarterly

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The article aims to contribute to the understanding of competitive dynamics and specialization in international sport by analyzing superior sporting performance (SSP) in international athletics in the period from 1999 to 2018. By applying iterative Kolmogorov‐Smirnov tests to annual bests, the study examines national SSPs. Contrary to theoretical considerations, less specialized countries are more likely to achieve SSP. Technical entry barriers and macrosocial factors also appear to play a limited role. SSP seems not to disappear due to increased international competition. The United States and Russia are identified as “sporting super powers,” able to persistently dominate a number of disciplines. The case of Russia poses fundamental questions concerning market distortions in international sport resulting from doping. The results come with substantial policy implications.

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Sozioökonomische Schätzungen olympischer Medaillengewinne

Cited by 24 publications

References 15 publications

Forecasting National Medal Totals at the Summer Olympic Games Reconsidered

Forecasting National Medal Totals at the Summer Olympic Games Reconsidered

Economic development as major determinant of Olympic medal wins: predicting performances of Russian and Chinese teams at Sochi Games

Superior Sporting Performance in Athletics: Determinants and Sustainability

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