Forecasting National Medal Totals at the Summer Olympic Games Reconsidered

Scelles, Nicolas; Andreff, Wladimir; Bonnal, Liliane; Andreff, Madeleine; Favard, Pascal

doi:10.1111/ssqu.12782

Cited by 21 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Based on their review of the literature at the macro-level, the authors noted that more than 50% of the determinants of success are macro-level variables that are beyond the control of politicians, such as population, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and climatic circumstances. Recent research confirms this in the Summer Olympic Games (Scelles et al 2020), international women's football (Jacobs 2014) and men's football Andreff 2019). De Bosscher et al (2006) also highlighted that the mesolevel contains factors fully or partially determined by sports policies and politics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 76%

Policy, political and economic determinants of the evolution of competitive balance in the FIFA women’s football World Cups

Scelles

2021

International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics

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Competitive balance is a key concept in sports economics. It postulates the necessity of sporting equilibrium between playing strengths to generate outcome uncertainty and thus fan demand. When looking at national teams, policy and political factors can help explain competitive balance. This article is interested in the evolution of competitive balance in the FIFA women's football World Cups over the 1991-2019 period. It aims to identify the policy, political and economic determinants of this evolution. The theoretical framework brings together the macro and sports policy factors leading to international sporting success, the historical policies and politics of gender equality and women's football impacting participation, and the economics and politics of the evolution of competitive balance that is positively impacted by an increase in participation. The research adopts a mixed methods approach, with the data relying both on sources documenting the historical policies and politics of gender equality and women's football, and the measurement and determinants of the competitive balance in the women's football World Cups. The results show that competitive balance has increased over time, consistent with the idea that the growing participation internationally translates in a better quality of the different playing strengths that, ultimately, leads to a better competitive balance. This growing participation internationally is related to the different (sport) policies and politics across countries, and the decisions made by FIFA, in particular the number of teams taking part in the competition and the breakdown per confederation as incentives for national associations to develop their women's football team.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 76%

Policy, political and economic determinants of the evolution of competitive balance in the FIFA women’s football World Cups

Scelles

2021

International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics

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“…However, there are also other studies that, although they do not focus primarily on property rights and economic systems, present results that support Shughart and Tollison (1993), Bernard andBusse (2004), andCampbell et al (2005). See, for example, Hoffman et al (2002Hoffman et al ( , 2004, Johnson andAli (2004), andScelles et al (2020). Separately, see Li et al (2009) for a discussion of the Chinese government's role in that country's Olympic medal successes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Property Rights Freedom and Innovation: Eponymous Skills in Women's Gymnastics

Mixon

Cebula

2021

Journal of Sports Economics

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Prior research uses the collapse of Soviet-style communism in 1991 as a de facto experimental framework within which to examine the impact of prospective benefits on the motivation of athletes to succeed in the Olympic Games. Prior to the collapse, successful Soviet Bloc Olympians were provided extraordinary living conditions and lifestyles. These rewards evaporated with the demise of the Soviet Union in 1991, subsequently resulting in relatively poorer Olympic performances of Soviet Bloc athletes. The current study extends earlier work by investigating the impact of appropriability on the supply of innovation by examining the frequency of eponymous skills in women's gymnastics before and during the transition to a new market-based economic order. Our central hypothesis is that following the dissolution the communist governments of the Soviet Bloc and its satellites, the supply of innovation in the form of eponymous skills in women's gymnastics from these countries has fallen. Frequency distributions of eponymous skills in women's gymnastics both prior to and after the dissolution of the aforementioned communist regimes support this hypothesis, as do results from goodness-of-fit tests and stochastic dominance analysis of joint probability distributions.

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“…Since this seminal publication, a number of studies estimated Tobit models to predict the number of medals won by each country (Andreff, Andreff, and Poupaux, 2008;Forrest, Sanz, and Tena, 2010). 3 Similarly, Scelles et al (2020) further investigated the methodological approach and demonstrated that Hurdle models perform better than Tobit models in predicting team medals. These authors concluded that both models should be used for forecasting purposes.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Popularity and Visibility Appraisals for Computing Olympic Medal Rankings

García-del-Barrio

Gómez-González

Sánchez‐Santos

2020

Social Science Quarterly

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Objective The ranking of countries in the Olympic Games generates a great deal of interest among analysts, academics, and fans. This article proposes an innovative approach to provide Olympic medals (gold, silver, and bronze) with different weights based on metrics of popularity and media visibility and create an alternative historical ranking. Methods The analysis uses “Google Trends” and “MERIT” appraisals to capture content and news articles on the Internet that relate to the different types of metals. Figures on weekly relative search intensity in Google and content in the Internet registered monthly are used to track changes over time and thus to control for differences between Summer and Winter Olympic Games. Results The results show that gold medals gather far more attention than silver and bronze medals. By applying the estimated multiplying factors, we create an alternative historical ranking of countries that shows some relevant changes. Conclusion The use of weights based on popularity and visibility has managerial implications and opens new avenues for future research.

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Forecasting National Medal Totals at the Summer Olympic Games Reconsidered

Cited by 21 publications

References 23 publications

Policy, political and economic determinants of the evolution of competitive balance in the FIFA women’s football World Cups

Policy, political and economic determinants of the evolution of competitive balance in the FIFA women’s football World Cups

Property Rights Freedom and Innovation: Eponymous Skills in Women's Gymnastics

Popularity and Visibility Appraisals for Computing Olympic Medal Rankings

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