Solar Particle Radiation Storms Forecasting and Analysis

Malandraki, O.; Crosby, Norma

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-60051-2

Cited by 19 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 97 publications

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“…As can be seen at Figure 4 below, in some days of high atmospheric transparency at high altitude as mount Moussala, the UV-B flux (dark violet curve) may exceeds UV-A component (light violet). Speaking about the intensity of peaks and repetition they could be attributed not only from increased reflection from dense clouds but also to occasional extraterrestrial events of solar activity [7], visible at high altitudes.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar Uv Irradiation Monitoring in Bulgaria Using Narrow-Band Digital Sensors and Open-Source Influxdb Database

Tyutyundzhiev¹,

Angelov²,

Lovchinov³

et al. 2020

RAD Conference Proceedings

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The global climate change in the recent years has increased the interest to atmospheric irradiation monitoring in wider format. Additionally to Gamma-ray and X-ray sensors, UV-C, UV-B and UV-A sensing systems has been developed to respond to the human expectations about sustainable life and to prevent them from hostile factors. The deeper penetration of UV sensor equipment and dense disperse of monitoring points will improve further the accuracy of measurements, accuracy of forecasting and will convince the citizens in the responsibility of researchers and their work. This work presents UV sensing equipment developed for remote monitoring. Solutions include complex system of narrow band UV sensors, datalogging units, wi-fi communication devices, solar PV charging and Li-Ion energy storing equipment. Most of the components and software technologies are based on opensource platforms and approaches as well as internet-shared results. The analysis of results from 3 UV sensor systems already installed in 3 high-mountain monitoring locations reveals local UV spectral variations. The performance of UV sensors has been evaluated. The collected database during two-year field measurements is prepared for training and development of algorithms for short-term UV forecasting.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar Uv Irradiation Monitoring in Bulgaria Using Narrow-Band Digital Sensors and Open-Source Influxdb Database

Tyutyundzhiev¹,

Angelov²,

Lovchinov³

et al. 2020

RAD Conference Proceedings

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“…At present, SEP models running in real-time with the goal of forecasting are typically based on correlations between solar phenomena (e.g., X-ray flare intensity and fluence, coronal mass ejections, type II and IV radio bursts, active region parameterizations) and SEP occurrence, see Whitman et al (2022b) and references within. Empirical models such as UMASEP and RELeASE can achieve probability of detection scores between 60%-90% with false alarm ratios of 12%-30%, with lead times of tens of minutes to a couple 10.3389/fspas.2023.1149014 of hours (Malandraki and Crosby, 2018;Núñez, 2022). Such models could support deterministic proton forecasts such as the NOAA SWPC Warning products, but further work is required to assess their ability to produce time profile forecasts of SEP characteristics capable of driving, e.g., aviation radiation models.…”

Section: Solar Energetic Particle Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved space weather observations and modeling for aviation radiation

Bain

Onsager

Mertens

et al. 2023

Front. Astron. Space Sci.

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In recent years there has been a growing interest from the aviation community for space weather radiation forecasts tailored to the needs of the aviation industry. In 2019 several space weather centers began issuing advisories for the International Civil Aviation Organization alerting users to enhancements in the radiation environment at aviation flight levels. Due to a lack of routine observations, radiation modeling is required to specify the dose rates experienced by flight crew and passengers. While mature models exist, support for key observational inputs and further modeling advancements are needed. Observational inputs required from the ground-based neutron monitor network must be financially supported for research studies and operations to ensure real-time data is available for forecast operations and actionable end user decision making. An improved understanding of the geomagnetic field is required to reduce dose rate uncertainties in regions close to the open/closed geomagnetic field boundary, important for flights such as those between the continental US and Europe which operate in this region. Airborne radiation measurements, which are crucial for model validation and improvement, are lacking, particularly during solar energetic particle events. New measurement campaigns must be carried out to ensure progress and in situ atmospheric radiation measurements made available for real-time situational awareness. Furthermore, solar energetic particle forecasting must be improved to move aviation radiation nowcasts to forecasts in order to meet customer requirements for longer lead times for planning and mitigation.

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“…At present, SEP models running in real-time with the goal of forecasting are typically based on correlations between solar phenomena (e.g., X-ray flare intensity and fluence, type II and IV radio bursts, active region parameterizations) and SEP occurrence. Empirical models such as UMASEP and RELeASE can achieve probability of detection scores between ~60-90% with false alarm ratios of 12-30%, with lead times of tens of minutes to a couple of hours (Malandraki et al 2018, Núñez 2022. Such models could support deterministic proton forecasts such as the NOAA SWPC Warning products, but further work is required to assess their ability to produce time profile forecasts of SEP characteristics capable of driving e.g., aviation radiation models.…”

Section: Solar Energetic Particle Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved Observations and Modeling for Aviation Radiation

Bain,

Copeland,

Zheng

et al. 2023

Bulletin of the AAS

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In recent years there has been a growing interest from the aviation community for space weather radiation forecasts tailored to the needs of the aviation industry. In 2019 several space weather centers began issuing advisories for the International Civil Aviation Organization alerting users to enhancements in the radiation environment at aviation flight levels. Due to a lack of routine observations, radiation modeling is required to specify the dose rates experienced by flight crew and passengers. While mature models exist, support for key observational inputs and further modeling advancements are needed. Observational inputs required from the ground-based neutron monitor network must be financially supported for research studies, and operationally supported to ensure real-time data is available for forecast operations and actionable end user decision making. An improved understanding of the geomagnetic field is required to reduce dose rate uncertainties in regions close to the open/closed geomagnetic field boundary, important for flights such as those between the continental US and Europe which operate in this region. Airborne radiation measurements, which are crucial for model validation and improvement, are lacking, particularly during solar energetic particle events. New measurement campaigns must be carried out to ensure progress. Furthermore, solar energetic particle forecasting must be improved to move aviation radiation nowcasts to forecasts in order to meet customer requirements for longer lead times for planning and mitigation.

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Solar Particle Radiation Storms Forecasting and Analysis

Cited by 19 publications

References 97 publications

Solar Uv Irradiation Monitoring in Bulgaria Using Narrow-Band Digital Sensors and Open-Source Influxdb Database

Solar Uv Irradiation Monitoring in Bulgaria Using Narrow-Band Digital Sensors and Open-Source Influxdb Database

Improved space weather observations and modeling for aviation radiation

Improved Observations and Modeling for Aviation Radiation

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