Solar Industry Update (Winter 2023) [Slides]

Abstract

Notes: E = estimate, P = projection. Bars represents median projections for analyses with country-level estimates. Error bars represent high and low projections. Not all sources have data for all categories.

Degradation Science from Nanometers to Kilometers: A Pathway to Rapid Detection for Reliable Photovoltaics

“…To estimate the cost, we use the median price of a 500 kW to 5 MW utility-scale photovoltaics (PV) system in the second half of 2022 from ref. [9] at US $ 1.77/W DC . Since this hypothetical example would be taking place in 2035, the dollar estimated amount needs to be converted to 2023 dollars by considering inflation that we estimate to be approximately 3%.…”

“…[8] Considering that the USA had a cumulative installed capacity at the end of the third quarter in 2022 of %130 GW, targeting 1 TW will present a substantial challenge. [9] If we could reduce the performance loss from a median of 0.75% year À1 to 0.50% year À1 , the savings would be several US $ billion (see Appendix). It would also reduce yearly decommissioning, replacement, and recycling demand by 2.5 GW PV module capacity covering approximately 30 km 2 every year using current land requirements.…”

U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks, With Minimum Sustainable Price Analysis: Q1 2023

“…Comprehensive national statistics on U.S. utility-scale module specifications are not yet available. However, evidence-including U.S. tariff data (Feldman et al 2023), the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic (ITRPV 2023), trade publications including Taiyang News (e.g., Chunduri 2022), and industry interviews-suggests that large bifacial modules have become dominant in the utility-scale sector. We use the utilityscale module assumptions for our benchmark 3-MWdc community solar system as well.…”

Fabrication of Pre-Structured Substrates and Growth of CIGS Micro-Absorbers

“…The European Union followed, installing 38.7 GW, led by Spain (8.1 GW), Germany (7.5 GW), Poland (4.9 GW), and the Netherlands (3.9 GW) [1]. For 2023, analysts project a substantial increase, estimating that photovoltaic installations could reach approximately 440 GW, double that of 2022 [2]. In 2021, crystallinesilicon (c-Si) photovoltaics represented a 95% share of production [3].…”