Smoking prevalence and attributable deaths in Thailand: predicting outcomes of different tobacco control interventions

Abstract

Background Despite substantial positive impacts of Thailand’s tobacco control policies on reducing the prevalence of smoking, current trends suggest that further reductions are needed to ensure that WHO’s 2025 voluntary global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use is met. In order to confirm this hypothesis, we aim to estimate the effect of tobacco control policies in Thailand on the prevalence of smoking and attributed deaths and assess the possibilities of achieving WHO’s 2025 global target. This paper addresses this knowledge gap which will contribute to policy control measures on tobacco control. Results of this study can help guide policy makers in implementing further interventions to reduce the prevalence of smoking in Thailand. Method A Markov chain model was developed to examine the effect of tobacco control policies, such as accessibility restrictions for youths, increased tobacco taxes and promotion of smoking cessation programs, from 2015 to 2025. Outcomes included smoking prevalence and the number of smoking-attributable deaths. Due to the very low prevalence of female smokers in 2014, this study applied the model to estimate the smoking prevalence and attributable mortality among males only. Results Given that the baseline prevalence of smoking in 2010 was 41.7% in males, the target of a 30% relative reduction requires that the prevalence be reduced to 29.2% by 2025. Under a baseline scenario where smoking initiation and cessation rates among males are attained by 2015, smoking prevalence rates will reduce to 37.8% in 2025. The combined tobacco control policies would further reduce the prevalence to 33.7% in 2025 and 89,600 deaths would be averted. Conclusion Current tobacco control policies will substantially reduce the smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. The combined interventions can reduce the smoking prevalence by 19% relative to the 2010 level. These projected reductions are insufficient to achieve the committed target of a 30% relative reduction in smoking by 2025. Increased efforts to control tobacco use will be essential for reducing the burden of non-communicable diseases in Thailand.

Smoking characteristics and lung functions among university athletes

“…These rates were higher than those for college and university athletes in the U.S. according to studies by Gingiss et al 1 (4% were current cigarette smokers) and Primack et al 2 (16.4% were current cigarette smokers), and also higher than the rate for professional athletes in Iran as reported by a study of Hessami et al 3 (9% were current cigarette smokers). Smoking prevalence in our study was higher than in the general population of Thailand (19% in 2017) 22 .…”

Ambient particulate matter and biomass burning: an ecological time series study of respiratory and cardiovascular hospital visits in northern Thailand

“…Other studies have also found higher coefficients for women and COPD in Beijing [22] and Lanzhou, China [41]. The sex difference in PM 10 response may, in part, reflect the disparity in smoking prevalence in Thailand among men (40%) and women (2%) [42], which we did not control for in our analysis (similar sex-specific smoking patterns occur in China [43]). Thus, fluctuations in ambient PM may be less important with a larger proportion of smokers, who would receive much higher doses from smoking than from outdoor air.…”

Longitudinal Study of Metabolic Biomarkers among Conventional and Organic Farmers in Thailand

“…In addition, the conventional farmers in this study were more likely to be male, whereas the organic farmers were equally divided between males and females. In Thailand, alcohol consumption and smoking are more likely to occur with males than females [10,11].…”