Smoke-Plume Distributions above Large-Scale Fires: Implications for Simulations of “Nuclear Winter”

Penner, Joyce E.; Haselman, L.C.; Edwards, Leslie L.

doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1986)025<1434:spdals>2.0.co;2

Cited by 59 publications

(73 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…In a sensitivity study by Luderer et al (2006) several conditions influencing pyroconvective clouds were varied, such as the sensible heat release by the fire, the aerosol concentration and the emission of water vapour by the fire. It was shown that the sensible heat release by the fire has the strongest effect on the development of the Chisholm pyrocumulonimbus, which is also consistent with other studies (Penner et al, 1986;Lavoué et al, 2000). When more sensible heat is available, the cloud reaches higher altitudes, thereby condensing and freezing more of the available water and releasing additional latent heat.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 88%

3-D model simulations of dynamical and microphysical interactions in pyroconvective clouds under idealized conditions

et al. 2014

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Abstract. Dynamical and microphysical processes in pyroconvective clouds in mid-latitude conditions are investigated using idealized three-dimensional simulations with the Active Tracer High resolution Atmospheric Model (ATHAM). A state-of-the-art two-moment microphysical scheme building upon a realistic parameterization of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation has been implemented in order to study the influence of aerosol concentration on cloud development. The results show that aerosol concentration influences the formation of precipitation. For low aerosol concentrations (N CN = 200 cm −3 ), rain droplets are rapidly formed by autoconversion of cloud droplets. This also triggers the formation of large graupel and hail particles, resulting in an early onset of precipitation. With increasing aerosol concentration (N CN = 1000 cm −3 and N CN = 20 000 cm −3 ) the formation of rain droplets is delayed due to more but smaller cloud droplets. Therefore, the formation of ice crystals and snowflakes becomes more important for the eventual formation of graupel and hail, which is delayed at higher aerosol concentrations. This results in a delay of the onset of precipitation and a reduction of its intensity with increasing aerosol concentration. This study is the first detailed investigation of the interaction between cloud microphysics and the dynamics of a pyroconvective cloud using the combination of a high-resolution atmospheric model and a detailed microphysical scheme.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 88%

3-D model simulations of dynamical and microphysical interactions in pyroconvective clouds under idealized conditions

et al. 2014

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“…Penner et al (1986) had also carried out simulations for such large fires, assuming a stable lapse rate, and found similar results as Small and Heikes (refer to Fig. 11).…”

Section: Altitudes Of Smoke Columnssupporting

confidence: 62%

“…11). Penner et al (1986) simulated fires of several physical sizes and energy release rates. They compared models and simulations for the Hamburg fire, which suggested a plume peak altitude just above the fire of 12 km, and downwind of 8 km, in agreement with the limited observations available (Fig.…”

Section: Altitudes Of Smoke Columnsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism

et al. 2007

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Abstract. We assess the potential damage and smoke production associated with the detonation of small nuclear weapons in modern megacities. While the number of nuclear warheads in the world has fallen by about a factor of three since its peak in 1986, the number of nuclear weapons states is increasing and the potential exists for numerous regional nuclear arms races. Eight countries are known to have nuclear weapons, 2 are constructing them, and an additional 32 nations already have the fissile material needed to build substantial arsenals of low-yield (Hiroshima-sized) explosives. Population and economic activity worldwide are congregated to an increasing extent in megacities, which might be targeted in a nuclear conflict. We find that low yield weapons, which new nuclear powers are likely to construct, can produce 100 times as many fatalities and 100 times as much smoke from fires per kt yield as previously estimated in analyses for full scale nuclear wars using high-yield weapons, if the small weapons are targeted at city centers. A single "small" nuclear detonation in an urban center could lead to more fatalities, in some cases by orders of magnitude, than have occurred in the major historical conflicts of many countries. We analyze the likely outcome of a regional nuclear exchange involving 100 15-kt explosions (less than 0.1% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal). We find that such an exchange could produce direct fatalities comparable to all of those worldwide in World War II, or to those once estimated for a "counterforce" nuclear war between the superpowers. Megacities exposed to atmospheric fallout of long-lived radionuclides would likely be abandoned indefinitely, with severe national and international implications. Our analysis shows that smoke from urban firestorms in a regional war would rise into the upper troposphere due to pyro-convection. Robock et al. (2007) show that the smoke would subsequently rise deep into the Correspondence to: O. B. Toon (toon@lasp.colorado.edu) stratosphere due to atmospheric heating, and then might induce significant climatic anomalies on global scales. We also anticipate substantial perturbations of global ozone. While there are many uncertainties in the predictions we make here, the principal unknowns are the type and scale of conflict that might occur. The scope and severity of the hazards identified pose a significant threat to the global community. They deserve careful analysis by governments worldwide advised by a broad section of the world scientific community, as well as widespread public debate.

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“…The effective source height defines the height below which the emitted material is released in a model system to represent the real plume. The effective source height depends on the heat released by the fire and on the environmental conditions: temperature, stability, humidity, and wind speed (Penner et al, 1986). Additional buoyancy can be gained through the release of latent heat by condensation, whereas a strong horizontal wind prevents the air parcel from reaching the condensation level (Freitas et al, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The importance of plume rise on the concentrations and atmospheric impacts of biomass burning aerosol

et al. 2016

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Abstract. We quantified the effects of the plume rise of biomass burning aerosol and gases for the forest fires that occurred in Saskatchewan, Canada, in July 2010. For this purpose, simulations with different assumptions regarding the plume rise and the vertical distribution of the emissions were conducted. Based on comparisons with observations, applying a one-dimensional plume rise model to predict the injection layer in combination with a parametrization of the vertical distribution of the emissions outperforms approaches in which the plume heights are initially predefined. Approximately 30 % of the fires exceed the height of 2 km with a maximum height of 8.6 km. Using this plume rise model, comparisons with satellite images in the visible spectral range show a very good agreement between the simulated and observed spatial distributions of the biomass burning plume. The simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD) with data of an AERONET station is in good agreement with respect to the absolute values and the timing of the maximum. Comparison of the vertical distribution of the biomass burning aerosol with CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation) retrievals also showed the best agreement when the plume rise model was applied. We found that downwelling surface short-wave radiation below the forest fire plume is reduced by up to 50 % and that the 2 m temperature is decreased by up to 6 K. In addition, we simulated a strong change in atmospheric stability within the biomass burning plume.

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Smoke-Plume Distributions above Large-Scale Fires: Implications for Simulations of “Nuclear Winter”

Cited by 59 publications

References 13 publications

3-D model simulations of dynamical and microphysical interactions in pyroconvective clouds under idealized conditions

3-D model simulations of dynamical and microphysical interactions in pyroconvective clouds under idealized conditions

Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism

The importance of plume rise on the concentrations and atmospheric impacts of biomass burning aerosol

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