Slowdown and reversal of terrestrial near-surface wind speed and its future changes over eastern China

Abstract

A recovery of near-surface wind speed (SWS) in the last decade has been reported over China; nevertheless, the contributions of large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulations (LOACs) to the SWS changes are rarely investigated. In this study, the turning point (TP) of the terrestrial stilling was validated over eastern China for 1979–2017. Furthermore, a forward stepwise regression algorithm was used to assess the contribution of LOACs to SWS changes. The results revealed that the TP of the SWS reversal occurred in approximately 2011 during the study period. Mean annual and seasonal SWSs exhibited decreases before the TP, with the largest decrease in spring (–0.134 ± 0.014 m s−1 decade−1), while SWSs increased after the TP, most strongly in autumn (0.377 ± 0.053 m s−1 decade−1). The SWS decrease before the TP and increase after the TP were caused by the decreasing and increasing frequencies of strong windy days (>75th percentile of SWS), respectively. The effects of LOACs on the long-term changes of SWS were pronounced. The contributions of LOACs to the decreasing and increasing trends of SWSs were >60.0%, with the exception of autumn. The projected SWSs exhibited increases in the near-term (2021–2040) for the low-emission scenarios (e.g. Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 245). For the mid-term and long-term projections, the SWSs still displayed a downward trend, which was mainly attributed to the reduction of strong windy days. Consequently, the present SWS recovery in the recent decade may be only expected to last for a short amount of time before winds start decreasing again.

An assessment of observed wind speed and wind power density over China for 1980–2021

“…These findings suggest that in recent years, the global wind speed also has had a weak mean state and variability. Many previous studies have suggested that large‐scale circulations and urbanization are important factors to the observed wind stilling 40,68–70 . The Siberian high pressure impacts the NWS variation on the decadal timescale by influencing weather regime occurrence over Eastern Asia 68 .…”

“…Many previous studies have suggested that large-scale circulations and urbanization are important factors to the observed wind stilling. 40,[68][69][70] The Siberian high pressure impacts the NWS variation on the decadal timescale by influencing weather regime occurrence over Eastern Asia. 68 As for urbanization, it ignored in the regional NWS decline, but it does not play a dominant role.…”

The analysis of the spatiotemporal variations and mechanisms for the near-surface wind speed over China in the last 40 years

“…In this paper, the wind speed change mechanisms in China are analyzed from two aspects: upper wind elds and uneven warming between high and low latitude zones. In addition to the above two aspects, the variation of near-surface wind speed may be closely related to the aerosol forcing and land use changes (Deng et al 2021a), urbanization (Wang et al 2020), larger-scale ocean-atmosphere circulations (Zha et al 2021), Arctic Oscillation (AO) (Ge et al 2021), etc. In the future, it would be of great signi cance to study the variation mechanisms of near-surface wind speed in China from various aspects, and to quantitatively identify the main in uencing factors of near-surface wind speed variations in different periods and regions.…”

Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of temperature and its impact on grain production in Northeast China in recent 50 years

“…In recent decades, the overall tend of surface wind speed in China is weakening, and there are obvious seasonal, regional and wind speed segment differences in surface wind speed [45][46][47] . The study found that in recent 50 years, the annual wind speed in different regions of Northeast China is obviously different.…”