Skilful predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead

Dunstone, Nick; Smith, Doug; Scaife, Adam A.; Hermanson, Leon; Eade, Rosie; Robinson, Niall; Andrews, Martin B.; Knight, Jeff

doi:10.1038/ngeo2824

Cited by 312 publications

(413 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Moreover, one should carefully account for other known NAO sources (e.g. the tropical Pacific, as shown by Dunstone et al 2016), and consider its interaction with these sources.…”

Section: The Decade 2005-2014mentioning

confidence: 99%

An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation

et al. 2017

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“…Moreover, one should carefully account for other known NAO sources (e.g. the tropical Pacific, as shown by Dunstone et al 2016), and consider its interaction with these sources.…”

Section: The Decade 2005-2014mentioning

confidence: 99%

An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation

et al. 2017

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“…While the predictive skill of seasonal forecasts is limited during much of the year in Northern Europe, recent advances in seasonal forecasting mean it is now possible to provide advance notice of a colder and drier, or warmer and wetter winter than average conditions (see Scaife et al, 2014;Dunstone et al, 2016 for further details), so the LMTool only provides forecasts during the winter months, in line with the EUPORIAS prototype selection criteria noted above .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The land management tool: Developing a climate service in Southwest UK

Falloon

Soares

Manzanas³

et al. 2018

Climate Services

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A B S T R A C TSeasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) have significant potential to support shorter-term agricultural decisions and longer-term climate adaptation plans, but uptake in Europe has to date been low. Under the European Union funded project, European Provision Of Regional Impacts Assessments on Seasonal and Decadal Timescales (EUPORIAS) we have developed the Land Management Tool (LMTool), a prototype seasonal climate service for land managers, working closely in collaboration with two stakeholder organizations, Clinton Devon Estates (CDE) and the National Farmers Union (NFU). LMTool was one of several prototype climate services selected for development within EUPORIAS, including those for the UK transport network, food security in Ethiopia, renewable energy production, hydroelectric energy production in Sweden, and river management in two French basins. The LMTool provides SCFs (1-3 months ahead) to farmers in the Southwest UK, alongside 14-day site specific weather forecasts during the winter months when the skill of seasonal forecasts is greatest.We describe the processes through which the LMTool was co-designed and developed with the farmers, its technical development and key features; critically examine the lessons learned and their implications for providing future climate services for land managers; and finally assess the feasibility of delivering an operational winter seasonal climate service for UK land managers.A number of key learning points from developing the prototype may benefit future work in climate services for the land management and agriculture sector; many of these points are also valid for climate services in other sectors. Prototype development strongly benefitted from; working with intermediaries to identify representative, engaged land managers; an iterative and flexible process of co-design with the farmer group; and from an interdisciplinary project team. Further work is needed to develop a better understanding of the role of forecast skill in land management decision making, the potential benefits of downscaling and how seasonal forecasts can help support land managers decision-making processes. The prototype would require considerable work to implement a robust operational forecast system, and a longer period to demonstrate the value of the services provided. Finally, the potential for such services to be applied more widely in Europe is not well understood and would require further stakeholder engagement and forecast development. Practical implicationsAs part of the EU project EUPORIAS (Buontempo and Hewitt, 2017), the UK Met Office, University of Leeds, Predictia and KNMI-in close collaboration with Clinton Devon Estates (CDE) and the National Farmers Union (NFU)-have developed the Land Management Tool (LMTool), a prototype http://dx

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“…The operational GloSea5 forecast system uses 42 members, rather than the 24 available in the hindcast used here, so the probability distributions inferred using the hindcast will be less well resolved than they would be operationally. Furthermore, it has been shown that the skill itself depends directly on the size of the ensemble, as it allows better identification of predictable signals Eade et al 2014;Dunstone et al 2016). For our purposes, the ensemble size means that we can regard levels of skill shown here, where significant, to be lower limits of the actual skill that could be realized in the operational system.…”

Section: A Data Setsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Skill and Reliability of Seasonal Forecasts for the Chinese Energy Sector

Bett

Thornton

Lockwood

et al. 2017

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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We assess the skill and reliability of forecasts of winter and summer temperature, wind speed and irradiance over China, using the GloSea5 seasonal forecast system. Skill in such forecasts is important for the future development of seasonal climate services for the energy sector, allowing better estimates of forthcoming demand and renewable electricity supply. We find that although overall the skill from the direct model output is patchy, some high-skill regions of interest to the energy sector can be identified. In particular, winter mean wind speed is skilfully forecast around the coast of the South China Sea, related to skilful forecasts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Such information could improve seasonal estimates of offshore wind power generation. Similarly, forecasts of winter irradiance have good skill in eastern central China, with possible use for solar power estimation. Much of China shows skill in summer temperatures, which derives from an upward trend. However, the region around Beijing retains this skill even when detrended. This temperature skill could be helpful in managing summer energy demand. While both the strengths and limitations of our results will need to be considered when developing seasonal climate services in the future, the outlook for such service development in China is promising. This document is c Crown

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Skilful predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead

Cited by 312 publications

References 30 publications

An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation

An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation

The land management tool: Developing a climate service in Southwest UK

Skill and Reliability of Seasonal Forecasts for the Chinese Energy Sector

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