Sketching sustainable land use in Europe by 2040: a multi-stakeholder participatory approach to elicit cross-sectoral visions

Pérez‐Soba, Marta; Paterson, James; Metzger, Marc J.; Gramberger, Marc; Houtkamp, J.M.; Jensen, Anne; Murray-Rust, Dave; Verkerk, Pieter Johannes

doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1297-7

Cited by 34 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Many empirical studies have focused on this (e.g. Phalan et al 2011;Egan and Mortensen 2012;Grau et al 2013), and it is strongly prioritised by stakeholders of all kinds (Pérez-Soba et al 2015). Nevertheless, considerably more evidence is required for a robust assessment of vision achievability.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Visions of European land systems were previously generated through a stakeholder-led process of normative foresight, described in detail by Pérez-Soba et al (2015). A diverse group of 69 stakeholders, with interests in nature conservation, recreation, agriculture, forestry, urban planning, energy and water, met in a series of two-day workshops to develop 15 integrated land use vision for Europe in 2040.…”

Section: Visionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to allow for quantitative comparisons between our simulation results and the consolidated visions, we defined the latter via 9 metrics describing their principal spatial and nonspatial characteristics, as identified from the detailed vision descriptions (Pérez-Soba et al 2015). These metrics described the extent, connectivity, diversity, Table S3)…”

Section: Visionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We run a series of simulations in theoretical settings to isolate behavioural effects and to assess their dependencies on characteristics of the land system and social, environmental and economic contexts. We link model results to established visions of future land systems (Pérez-Soba et al 2015) through a series of spatial and aggregate metrics describing land use and cover, allowing us to assess the extent to which simulations converge on specific criteria of the visions. On this basis, we examine the feasibility of the visions and identify factors that determine whether or not they can be achieved, including the relative potential roles of scenario and behavioural factors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Land managers’ behaviours modulate pathways to visions of future land systems

et al. 2016

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Attempts to influence the development of land systems are often based on detailed scenarios that constrain relevant factors, describe a range of divergent but plausible futures and identify potential pathways to visions of desirable conditions. However, a number of assumptions are usually made during this process, and one of the most substantial is that land managers display homogeneous, economically rational behaviour across space, time and scenarios. This assumption precludes the consideration of important behavioural effects and limits understanding of the feasibility of scenario-based pathways towards visions. We use an agent-based land use model to examine broad forms of behavioural variation within defined scenarios in theoretical contexts. We relate model results to stakeholder-developed visions of desired future land systems in Europe and so assess the scope for behavioural pathways towards these normative futures. We find that the achievability of visions is determined by internal inconsistencies, scenario conditions and the multifunctional potential of land uses, with a fundamental tension between large-scale land use productivity and small-scale diversity (i.e. land sparing and land sharing). Trading conditions affect this balance most strongly and represent an obvious target for governance strategies concerned with achieving multifunctional land use. However, within specific circumstances behavioural effects are strong and diverse, and can accelerate, counteract or mitigate the impacts of other drivers. This suggests that visions for the land system should focus on trade-offs, identifying those that are least strong, most acceptable and most susceptible to adjustment through behavioural or other influences.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Visionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Visionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Land managers’ behaviours modulate pathways to visions of future land systems

et al. 2016

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“…In land use science agent-based models are used to incorporate individual agency in land management choices (Murray-Rust et al 2014a), and assumptions about future consumer demand feature in explorative land use scenarios (Plieninger et al 2013). More recently, normative approaches have looked at alternative visions for future land use in Europe in a facilitated stakeholder process (Pérez-Soba et al 2015. However, until now no land use study has explicitly attempted to find out how the general public wants to live in the future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How do Europeans want to live in 2040? Citizen visions and their consequences for European land use

et al. 2017

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The aspirations, motivations and choices of individual European citizens are a major driver of the future of global, European and local land use. However, until now no land use study has explicitly attempted to find out how the general public wants to live in the future. This paper forms a first attempt to survey European citizens to understand their desired future lives in relation to consequences for European land use. We used a crowdsourcing experiment to elicit visions from young Europeans about their lives in 2040. Participants completed a graphic novel around carefully selected questions, allowing them to create a story of their imagined future lives in pictures. The methodology worked well, and the sample seemed reasonably representative albeit skewed towards an educated population. In total, 1131 responses from 29 countries were received. Results show a strong desire for change, and for more sustainable lifestyles. There is desire for local and ecologically friendly food production, to eat less meat, to have access to green infrastructure and the ability to cycle to work. However, international travel remains popular, and the desire for extensive food production and owning detached houses with gardens will likely result in complex land use trade-offs. Future work could focus more specifically on quantifying these trade-offs and inform respondents about the consequences of their lifestyle choices. This was a first attempt to use crowdsourcing to understand citizen visions for their lives in the future, and our lessons learned will help future studies improve representativeness and increase responses.

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How stable are visions for protected area management? Stakeholder perspectives before and during a pandemic

López‐Rodríguez

Metzger

et al. 2022

People and Nature

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Envisioning processes enable protected area managers to chart a course for future management to reach desired goals, but unexpected changes that could affect future visions are not usually considered. The global COVID‐19 pandemic provided an opportunity to explore changes in stakeholder visions, the values that underpin the visions, and their perceptions of landscape changes and the underlying drivers (e.g. climate change, mass tourism and demographic trends). Through a mixed‐methods approach in this post‐evaluation study, we gathered comparative data on these issues from stakeholders in the Sierra de Guadarrama National Park, Spain, between July 2019 (pre‐pandemic) and October 2020 (mid‐pandemic). Our qualitative analysis demonstrates that pre‐pandemic, differences in visions for protected area management were largely spurred by different perceptions of drivers of change, rather than differences in values or perceived landscape changes, which were similar across different vision themes. One year later, in the midst of the COVID‐19 pandemic, the majority of stakeholders reported that their values, visions and perceptions of drivers did not change despite this large‐scale disturbance. Of the 20%–30% of stakeholders that did report changes, visions generally shifted towards greater prioritization of biodiversity and nature conservation as a result of heightened perceptions of the impacts of drivers of change associated with an increase in the numbers of park visitors. These drivers included mass tourism, mountain recreation, lack of environmental awareness, and change in values and traditions. Our findings reinforce the importance of adaptive and inclusive management of protected areas, including enhancing transparency and communications regarding factors driving change in the landscape, and integration of local and traditional knowledge and stakeholder perceptions of changes and drivers. Furthermore, management plans integrating stakeholder values have the potential to stay relevant even in the face of wildcard events such as a pandemic. To enhance the relevancy of visions and scenarios in conservation and land‐use planning, scenario planning methodologies should more strongly consider different potential disturbances and how drivers of change in the near and far future can be affected by wildcard events such as a pandemic.

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Sketching sustainable land use in Europe by 2040: a multi-stakeholder participatory approach to elicit cross-sectoral visions

Cited by 34 publications

References 34 publications

Land managers’ behaviours modulate pathways to visions of future land systems

Land managers’ behaviours modulate pathways to visions of future land systems

How do Europeans want to live in 2040? Citizen visions and their consequences for European land use

How stable are visions for protected area management? Stakeholder perspectives before and during a pandemic

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