2020
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15382
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Sixteen hundred years of increasing tree cover prior to modern deforestation in Southern Amazon and Central Brazilian savannas

Abstract: Tropical ecosystems are under increasing pressure from land-use change and deforestation. Changes in tropical forest cover are expected to affect carbon and water cycling with important implications for climatic stability at global scales. A major roadblock for predicting how tropical deforestation affects climate is the lack of baseline conditions (i.e., prior to human disturbance) of forest-savanna dynamics. To address this limitation, we developed a long-term analysis of forest and savanna distribution acro… Show more

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Cited by 22 publications
(15 citation statements)
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“…It is important to acknowledge that (a) nucleation will likely be weaker where frequent fires reduce canopy size and kill recruits, and that (b) forest expansion over savannas and grasslands can also proceed by alternate mechanisms, with the forest gradually expanding as a wave front or with tree density and cover simultaneously increasing in the whole area (Favier et al., 2004; Wright et al., 2021). However, the woody encroachment driven by nucleation that we described here for the first time in the Cerrado may be a widespread phenomenon in the whole biome wherever fire is suppressed, particularly in landscape mosaics where forest patches share the space with open savannas.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…It is important to acknowledge that (a) nucleation will likely be weaker where frequent fires reduce canopy size and kill recruits, and that (b) forest expansion over savannas and grasslands can also proceed by alternate mechanisms, with the forest gradually expanding as a wave front or with tree density and cover simultaneously increasing in the whole area (Favier et al., 2004; Wright et al., 2021). However, the woody encroachment driven by nucleation that we described here for the first time in the Cerrado may be a widespread phenomenon in the whole biome wherever fire is suppressed, particularly in landscape mosaics where forest patches share the space with open savannas.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…It is important to acknowledge that (a) nucleation will likely be weaker where frequent fires reduce canopy size and kill recruits, and that (b) forest expansion over savannas and grasslands can also proceed by alternate mechanisms, with the forest gradually expanding as a wave front or with tree density and cover simultaneously increasing in the whole area (Favier et al, 2004;Wright et al, 2021).…”
Section: Factors Explaining the Effectiveness Of Nucleation Among Nur...mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…a combination of pollen records, phytolith, and δ 13 C values), there was a shift in land use from savanna to forests in the last 6 ka years in areas of the transition between Cerrado and Mata Atlântica biomes in southeastern Brazil (Behling & Lichte, 1997; Gouveia et al, 2002; Ledru et al, 2016). Notably, the shift from a dry period (12–6 ka year BP) to more humid conditions (starting 6 ka year BP) led to the expansion of forest fragments (Mata Atlântica biome) over savannas (Cerrado biome) only in the gradual transition between rainforest and savannas (Scheel‐Ybert et al, 2003; Ledru et al, 2009; Arruda et al, 2018; Wright et al, 2021).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Notably, the shift from a dry period (12-6 ka year BP) to more humid conditions (starting 6 ka year BP) led to the expansion of forest fragments (Mata Atlântica biome) over savannas (Cerrado biome) only in the gradual transition between rainforest and savannas (Scheel-Ybert et al, 2003;Ledru et al, 2009;Arruda et al, 2018;Wright et al, 2021).…”
Section: Scenario 1: Vegetation Adding Large Quantities Of Carbon Int...mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…An alternative possibility is that savanna-forest boundaries may be highly dynamic over longer time-scales (Schwartz et al, 1986, West et al ., 2000, Staver et al , 2017, Aleman et al 2019) and in response to changing climate or climate events (Hirota el al , 2010, Breman et al, 2012, Beckett & Bond, 2019, Wright et al, 2021, Sato et al , 2021). Spatially explicit modelling work has argued that fires at the savanna-forest boundary can have major effects on the biogeographic distribution of biomes (Staver et al , 2011b, van de Leemput et al , 2015, Goel et al , 2020a, Goel et al , 2020b, Wuyts et al , 2019) and local observations confirm that boundaries are sometimes dynamic through time (Brook & Bowman, 2006, Silva et al , 2008, Ibanez et al , 2013, Beckett & Bond, 2019).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%