Six-Month Effectiveness of BNT162B2 mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine in a Large US Integrated Health System: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Tartof, Sara Y; Slezak, Jeff; Fischer, Heidi; Hong, Vennis; Ackerson, Bradley; Ranasinghe, Omesh N; Frankland, Timothy B.; Ogun, Oluwaseye Ayoola; Zamparo, Joann M.; Gray, Sharon; Valluri, Srinivas Rao; Pan, Kaijie; Angulo, Frederick J.; Jódar, Luis; McLaughlin, John M.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3909743

Cited by 27 publications

(9 citation statements)

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“…At 7 months past dose two for BNT162b2 we predict IgG levels to drop to 0.16% of the peak response; suggesting that 0.16% of the peak response correlates to 16% efficacy. In another BNT162b2 study, efficacy against infection was found to decline to 47% five months post dose two, with efficacy against the delta variant found to be 53% four months after full vaccination 55 . We find that following two standard doses of BNT162b2 the IgG counts have dropped to 2.1 and 7.2% of peak, 5 and 4 months following the second dose, respectively.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex

Korosec

Farhang‐Sardroodi

Dick

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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The lipid nanoparticle (LNP)-formulated mRNA vaccines BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 are a widely adopted multi vaccination public health strategy to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. Clinical trial data has described the immunogenicity of the vaccine, albeit within a limited study time frame. Here, we use a within-host mathematical model for LNP-formulated mRNA vaccines, informed by available clinical trial data from 2020 to September 2021, to project a longer term understanding of immunity as a function of vaccine type, dosage amount, age, and sex. We estimate that two standard doses of either mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2, with dosage times separated by the company-mandated intervals, results in individuals losing more than 99% humoral immunity relative to peak immunity by 8 months following the second dose. We predict that within an 8 month period following dose two (corresponding to the original CDC time-frame for administration of a third dose), there exists a period of time longer than 1 month where an individual has lost more than 99% humoral immunity relative to peak immunity, regardless of which vaccine was administered. We further find that age has a strong influence in maintaining humoral immunity; by 8 months following dose two we predict that individuals aged 18–55 have a four-fold humoral advantage compared to aged 56–70 and 70+ individuals. We find that sex has little effect on the immune response and long-term IgG counts. Finally, we find that humoral immunity generated from two low doses of mRNA-1273 decays at a substantially slower rate relative to peak immunity gained compared to two standard doses of either mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2. Our predictions highlight the importance of the recommended third booster dose in order to maintain elevated levels of antibodies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex

Korosec

Farhang‐Sardroodi

Dick

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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“…Studies showed that although Omicron had higher rates of reinfection, it was clinically less severe compared to the Delta variant suggested to be driven by prior infections and T cell immune responses [11]. While two doses of COVID-19 vaccines elicit high level of protection against symptomatic disease, the former wanes 4-6 months following the second dose of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna) or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-6 AstraZeneca vaccines) [15,16]. Recent studies showed that vaccine effectiveness against the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) was lower than the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) after primary immunization with 2 doses of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccines with significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness against the two variants ≥25 weeks following the second dose [17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genomic Surveillance of SARS CoV2 in COVID-19 vaccinated healthcare workers in Lebanon

Kalamouni

Hassan

Hamdan

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants including the Delta and Omicron along with waning of vaccine-induced immunity over time contributed to increased rates of breakthrough infection specifically among healthcare workers (HCWs). SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance is an important tool for timely detection and characterization of circulating variants as well as monitoring the emergence of new strains. Our study is the first national SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance among HCWs in Lebanon. We collected 250 samples from five hospitals across Lebanon between December 2021 and January 2022. We extracted viral RNA and performed whole genome sequencing using the Illumina NextSeq 500 platform. A total of 133 (57.1%) samples belonging to the Omicron (BA.1.1) sub-lineage were identified, as well as 44 (18.9%) samples belonging to the BA.1 sub-lineage, 28 (12%) belonging to the BA.2 sub-lineage, and only 15 (6.6%) samples belonging to the Delta variant sub-lineage B.1.617.2. These results show that Lebanon followed the global trend in terms of circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants with Delta rapidly replaced by the Omicron variant. This study underscores the importance of continuous genomic surveillance programs in Lebanon for the timely detection and characterization of circulating variants. The latter is critical to guide public health policy making and to timely implement public health interventions.

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“…The national vaccination campaign started during the second wave (from December 27 th , 2020) with four vaccines available; two messenger RNA (Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna) and two vector vaccines (Janssen, Vaxzevria) [16]. Vaccine protection reduced on time (after 4 months from the vaccine cycle) especially against virus variants, however it came back high (especially against the risk to develop severe diseases) with a booster shot [18][19][20][21]. With a high percentage of vaccinated people from the third wave, the hospital saturation levels replaced the R t in the risk evaluation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…, for the periods January-September/2021, October/2021, November/2021, December/2022, January /2022 and February/2022[23]. We used those estimates to assess the relative risk in(10) and in(19) as follows 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 � 𝑗𝑗,𝜉𝜉,𝑉𝑉 = Let 𝑃𝑃 𝑗𝑗 and 𝑃𝑃 𝑘𝑘,𝑗𝑗 (𝑀𝑀𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 𝑘𝑘 ) be the people of age j respectively in the Italian population and in the fictitious infections on the kth pandemic day, by the definition of median we have that…”

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confidence: 99%

The first two years of COVID-19 in Italy: Incidence, lethality, and health policies

ferrante

2022

Preprint

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Background The novel coronavirus disease is an ongoing pandemic that started in China in December 2019. The aim of this paper is to provide a detailed overview of the first two years of this pandemic in Italy. Design and methods : Using the negative binomial distribution, we estimated the daily incidence of infections from the virus lethality and the resulting deaths (estimated by weighted moving average). We adjusted the daily lethality of the original strain (estimated through national sero-surveys) for age, hazard ratios of virus variants of concern and the cumulative distribution of vaccinated people. Results From the 24th of February 2020 to the 28th of February 2022, we estimated 20,833,018 (20,728,924 − 20,937,375) cases distributed over 5 waves. The overall lethality was 0.73% and daily ranged from 2.78% (in the first wave) to 0.15% (in the last one). The first two waves showed the highest daily peaks of deaths (about 710), the last one showed the highest daily peak of infections (220,487). Restriction measures of population mobility strongly slowed the virus’s spread. During the second pandemic year, vaccines prevented 10,000,000 infections and 115,000 deaths. Conclusion In the summer, the main mode of transmission was presumably direct contact. A massive test campaign allowed monitoring of the virus’ spread, especially among the younger population. Mobility restriction measures are effective in a suppression strategy; distance learning and smart working are effective in a mitigation strategy. Despite the variants of concern, vaccines strongly reduced the pandemic impact on the healthcare system and avoided strong restriction measures.

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Six-Month Effectiveness of BNT162B2 mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine in a Large US Integrated Health System: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Cited by 27 publications

References 0 publications

Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex

Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex

Genomic Surveillance of SARS CoV2 in COVID-19 vaccinated healthcare workers in Lebanon

The first two years of COVID-19 in Italy: Incidence, lethality, and health policies

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