The lipid nanoparticle (LNP)-formulated mRNA vaccines BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 are a widely adopted multi vaccination public health strategy to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. Clinical trial data has described the immunogenicity of the vaccine, albeit within a limited study time frame. Here, we use a within-host mathematical model for LNP-formulated mRNA vaccines, informed by available clinical trial data from 2020 to September 2021, to project a longer term understanding of immunity as a function of vaccine type, dosage amount, age, and sex. We estimate that two standard doses of either mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2, with dosage times separated by the company-mandated intervals, results in individuals losing more than 99% humoral immunity relative to peak immunity by 8 months following the second dose. We predict that within an 8 month period following dose two (corresponding to the original CDC time-frame for administration of a third dose), there exists a period of time longer than 1 month where an individual has lost more than 99% humoral immunity relative to peak immunity, regardless of which vaccine was administered. We further find that age has a strong influence in maintaining humoral immunity; by 8 months following dose two we predict that individuals aged 18–55 have a four-fold humoral advantage compared to aged 56–70 and 70+ individuals. We find that sex has little effect on the immune response and long-term IgG counts. Finally, we find that humoral immunity generated from two low doses of mRNA-1273 decays at a substantially slower rate relative to peak immunity gained compared to two standard doses of either mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2. Our predictions highlight the importance of the recommended third booster dose in order to maintain elevated levels of antibodies.

The burnt-bridges ratchet (BBR) mechanism is a model for biased molecular motion whereby the construct destroys track binding sites as it progresses, and therefore acts as a diffusing forager, seeking new substrate sites. Using Monte Carlo simulations that implement the Gillespie algorithm, we investigate the kinetic characteristics of simple polyvalent BBRs as they move on tracks of increasing width. We find that as the track width is increased the BBRs remain nearly ballistic for considerable track widths proportional to the span (leg length) of the polyvalent walker, before transitioning to near-conventional diffusion on two-dimensional tracks. We find there exists a tradeoff in BBR track association time and superdiffusivity in the BBR design parameter space of span, polyvalency and track width. Furthermore, we develop an analytical model to describe the ensembleaverage motion on the track and find it is in good agreement with our Gillespie simulation results. This work offers insights into design criteria for de novo BBRs and their associated tracks, where experimentalists seek to optimize directionality and track association time.

Nature utilizes the burnt bridges ratchet (BBR) to generate active motion in a variety of biological contexts. Here, the influence of substrate stiffness on spherical BBR dynamics is investigated.

During the SARS-CoV-2 global pandemic, several vaccines, including mRNA and adenovirus vector approaches, have received emergency or full approval. However, supply chain logistics have hampered global vaccine delivery, which is impacting mass vaccination strategies. Recent studies have identified different strategies for vaccine dose administration so that supply constraints issues are diminished. These include increasing the time between consecutive doses in a two-dose vaccine regimen and reducing the dosage of the second dose. We consider both of these strategies in a mathematical modeling study of a non-replicating viral vector adenovirus vaccine in this work. We investigate the impact of different prime-boost strategies by quantifying their effects on immunological outcomes based on simple system of ordinary differential equations. The boost dose is administered either at a standard dose (SD) of 1000 or at a low dose (LD) of 500 or 250 vaccine particles. Results show dose-dependent immune response activity. Our model predictions show that by stretching the prime-boost interval to 18 or 20, in an SD/SD or SD/LD regimen, the minimum promoted antibody (Nab) response will be comparable with the neutralizing antibody level measured in COVID-19 recovered patients. Results also show that the minimum stimulated antibody in SD/SD regimen is identical with the high level observed in clinical trial data. We conclude that an SD/LD regimen may provide protective capacity, which will allow for conservation of vaccine doses.