Sitting the barrier aimed at protecting roadside property from accidental fires and explosions on road: a pre-optimisation stage

Vaidogas, Egidijus Rytas; Linkutė, Lina

doi:10.3846/bjrbe.2012.37

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…However, a probabilistic design of safety barriers is a more natural and scientifically justified approach due to considerable uncertainties on the side of blast and impact loads. To date attempts to design barriers in a probabilistic way were restricted mainly to the case of blast loading [15,23,29,30,40,42,43]. A probabilistic design of barriers for moderate-velocity impacts by non-totally rigid fragments from vessel bursts is in its infancy to the best of our knowledge.…”

Section: Review Of Related Work and Available Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian Processing of Data on Bursts of Pressure Vessels

Vaidogas

2021

ITC

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Two alternative Bayesian approaches are proposed for the prediction of fragmentation of pressure vessels triggered off by accidental explosions (bursts) of these containment structures. It is shown how to carry out this prediction with post-mortem data on fragment numbers counted after past explosion accidents. Results of the prediction are estimates of probabilities of individual fragment numbers. These estimates are expressed by means of Bayesian prior or posterior distributions. It is demonstrated how to elicit the prior distributions from relatively scarce post-mortem data on vessel fragmentations. Specifically, it is suggested to develop priors with two Bayesian models known as compound Poisson-gamma and multinomial-Dirichlet probability distributions. The available data is used to specify non-informative prior for Poisson parameter that is subsequently transformed into priors of individual fragment number probabilities. Alternatively, the data is applied to a specification of Dirichlet concentration parameters. The latter priors directly express epistemic uncertainty in the fragment number probabilities. Example calculations presented in the study demonstrate that the suggested non-informative prior distributions are responsive to updates with scarce data on vessel explosions. It is shown that priors specified with Poisson-gamma and multinomial-Dirichlet models differ tangibly; however, this difference decreases with increasing amount of new data. For the sake of brevity and concreteness, the study was limited to fire induced vessel bursts known as boiling liquid expanding vapour explosions (BLEVEs).

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Section: Review Of Related Work and Available Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian Processing of Data on Bursts of Pressure Vessels

Vaidogas

2021

ITC

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“…Vaidogas and Linkutė considered also problems of decisionmaking in the design of structures used for protection of built property against accidental explosions [116].…”

Section: Mcdm and Fire Protection Of Civil Engineering Objectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solving Civil Engineering Problems by Means of Fuzzy and Stochastic MCDM Methods: Current State and Future Research

Antuchevičienė

Kala

Marzouk

et al. 2015

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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The present review examines decision-making methods developed for dealing with uncertainties and applied to solve problems of civil engineering. Several methodological difficulties emerging from uncertainty quantification in decision-making are identified. The review is focused on formal methods of multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM). Handling of uncertainty by means of fuzzy logic and probabilistic modelling is analysed in light of MCDM. A sensitivity analysis of MCDM problems with uncertainties is discussed. An application of stochastic MCDM methods to a design of safety critical objects of civil engineering is considered. Prospects of using MCDM under uncertainty in developing areas of civil engineering are discussed in brief. These areas are design of sustainable and energy efficient buildings, building information modelling, and assurance of security and safety of built property. It is stated that before long the decision-making in civil engineering may face several methodological problems: the need to combine fuzzy and probabilistic representations of uncertainties in one decision-making matrix, the necessity to extend a global sensitivity analysis to all input elements of a MCDM problem with uncertainties, and an application of MCDM methods in the areas of civil engineering where decision-making under uncertainty is presently not common.

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“…All criteria were applied to the matrix of estimates,Ĉ, obtained from the matrix of dimensionless criteria, C, with the criterion weights given in Table 8. The matrix C was computed with the vector-norm normalisation method (e.g., [37,41]).…”

Section: The Random Decision-making Matrix and Selection Of The Best mentioning

confidence: 99%

Solving the Problem of Multiple-Criteria Building Design Decisions with respect to the Fire Safety of Occupants: An Approach Based on Probabilistic Modelling

Vaidogas

Šakėnaitė

2015

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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The design of buildings may include a comparison of alternative architectural and structural solutions. They can be developed at different levels of design process. The alternative design solutions are compared and ranked by applying methods of multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM). Each design is characterised by a number of criteria used in a MCDM problem. The paper discusses how to choose MCDM criteria expressing fire safety related to alternative designs. Probability of a successful evacuation of occupants from a building fire and difference between evacuation time and time to untenable conditions are suggested as the most important criteria related to fire safety. These two criteria are treated as uncertain quantities expressed by probability distributions. Monte Carlo simulation of fire and evacuation processes is natural means for an estimation of these distributions. The presence of uncertain criteria requires applying stochastic MCDM methods for ranking alternative designs. An application of the safety-related criteria is illustrated by an example which analyses three alternative architectural floor plans prepared for a reconstruction of a medical building. A MCDM method based on stochastic simulation is used to solve the example problem.

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Sitting the barrier aimed at protecting roadside property from accidental fires and explosions on road: a pre-optimisation stage

Cited by 8 publications

References 37 publications

Bayesian Processing of Data on Bursts of Pressure Vessels

Bayesian Processing of Data on Bursts of Pressure Vessels

Solving Civil Engineering Problems by Means of Fuzzy and Stochastic MCDM Methods: Current State and Future Research

Solving the Problem of Multiple-Criteria Building Design Decisions with respect to the Fire Safety of Occupants: An Approach Based on Probabilistic Modelling

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