Sistem Peramalan Penjualan Sepeda Motor Menggunakan Metode Trend Projection Pada Pt. Ud Prima Nusantara

Isnayati, Isnayati; Saptari, Mochamad Ari

doi:10.29103/sisfo.v1i2.247

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…5. Evaluating the results of forecasting and drawing conclusions (Isnayati, 2017) Time Series Periodic data is data collected from time to time to describe a development or trend of events/activities, usually at the same distance or time interval. Periodic data is also called time series data or abbreviated as time series.…”

Section: Forecasting Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implementation of Double Exponential Smoothing Holt Method in Forecasting Commercial Rice Salws in Perum Bulog Sub Divre Medan

Agustine

Indra

Nasution

2023

Zero

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<p>Logistics general company or Perum BULOG is a state-owned public company engaged in food logistics, especially rice. To carry out its functions, this agency is assisted by several regional divisions or subdivisions, one of which is the Medan Sub-Divisional Division having its address at Timbang Deli, Medan Amplas District, Medan City. Forecasting is a technique for estimating a value in the future by paying attention to historical data or current data. The purpose of this study is to analyze data based on historical data patterns and predict using the Double Exponential Smoothing Holt method by finding optimal parameters based on the smallest MAPE value. The results of this study obtained a graph of data patterns that experienced an upward trend so that it could be predicted using the Double Exponential Smoothing Holt method with optimal parameters , namely dan and based on the smallest MAPE value, which was 0,0418052 and also obtained the results of forecasting commercial rice sales at Perum BULOG Sub Divre Medan which will increase by 151,3 kg every month, namely in January 2022 by 865369 kg, in February 2022 by 865540,3 kg, in March 2022 by 865691,6 kg, in April 2022 by 865842,9 kg, in in May 2022 amounted to 865994,2 kg, and in June 2022 amounted to 866145,5 kg.</p>

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Section: Forecasting Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implementation of Double Exponential Smoothing Holt Method in Forecasting Commercial Rice Salws in Perum Bulog Sub Divre Medan

Agustine

Indra

Nasution

2023

Zero

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“…Peramalan adalah seni dan ilmu untuk memprediksi kejadian dimasa depan dengan melibatkan pengambilan data historis dan memproyeksikannya ke masa mendatang dengan model pendekatan sistematis [11]. Peramalan merupakan alat bantu yang penting dalam perencanaan yang efektif dan efisien khususnya dalam bidang ekonomi [12]. Selain itu, Peramalan adalah sebuah perhitungan atau perkiraan dengan memanfaatkan metode-metode tertentu peramalan menggunakan data atau sejumlah informasi yang diperoleh pada masa atau periode sebelumnya untuk menemukan nilai prediksi pada periode yang selanjutnya [13].…”

Section: Metode Penelitianunclassified

Forecasting the Gold Jewelry Sales Using Single Exponential Smoothing Method

Ariza¹,

Manurung²,

Handayani³

2022

J. Tek. Inform. (JUTIF)

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Gold is a precious metal that plays an important role in people's daily lives. People use gold jewelry as a dowry so that gold is sought after, such as earrings, necklaces, pendants, bracelets, rings and others. However, buying and selling gold jewelry at a gold jewelry store has a different strategy. Gold sellers must carry out the gold jewelry production process to meet gold jewelry supplies and market demand. The results of the sale of gold jewelry sometimes increase and decrease every day which cannot be predicted every day, so this can affect the store to find out the profits and losses that will be obtained in the future. The purpose of this study was to determine the results of forecasting sales of gold jewelry at the Yoga Gold Shop using the single exponential smoothing method in the coming month. The results of this study resulted in March 2022 9 carat gold jewelry totaling 4191.16 grams with a 3.01% MAPE, 10 carat gold totaling 2095.53 grams with a 3.01% MAPE, Surabaya gold 1047.76 grams with a 3.03% MAPE and london gold jewelery 523.83 grams with a MAPE of 3.41%. So it can be concluded that applying the single exponential smoothing method can help in predicting the sales results of gold jewelry.

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Section: Metode Peramalanunclassified

Peramalan Produksi Budidaya Perikanan Dengan Metode Single Moving Average Di UPR. Sukses Selele Kelurahan Mutiara

Noviandi¹,

Manurung²,

Rahmadani³

2022

JUTSI

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Aquaculture is a sector whose growth can continue to be spurred, considering the utilization of the existing potential is still low compared to the area of land available for cultivation, one of which is in the Success Selele Community Hatchery Unit (UPR), Mutiara Village. To meet the high demand for fish, the government must try hard to prepare the availability of a lot of fish. However, at this time there are many obstacles that must be faced by fish providers.. There are so many fish hatchery farming households in Indonesia, one of the Successful Selele Selele Kelurahan Mutiara's Hatchery Units. Based on data from the Success Selele People's Hatchery Unit (UPR) in Mutiara Village, in numbers, the results of fish hatchery production in the last year's data, namely 2017. The last 12 month. Therefore, forecasting is needed to determine the condition of fish hatchery production so that appropriate steps can be taken to increase fish hatchery production so that it can supply the national fish availability. To find out the condition of fish hatchery production results, a forecasting method is needed that can know/predict the fish hatchery production results with precise accuracy. Keywords: Aquaculture Production; Forecasting; Single Moving Average. Abstrak: Budidaya perikanan merupakan sektor yang pertumbuhannya masih dapat terus dipacu, mengingat pemanfaatan potensi yang ada masih rendah dibanding luas lahan yang tersedia untuk melakukan budidaya salah satunya di Unit Pembenihan Rakyat (UPR) Sukses Selele Kelurahan Mutiara. Untuk mencukupi kebutuhan ikan yang tinggi maka pemerintah harus berusaha keras untuk menyiapkan ketersediaan ikan yang banyak. Akan tetapi pada saat ini banyak kendala yang harus dihadapi oleh para penyedia ikan. Banyak sekali rumah tangga budidaya pembenihan ikan di Indonesia, salah satu Unit Pembenihan Rakyat (UPR) Sukses Selele Kelurahan Mutiara. Berdasarkan data Unit Pembenihan Rakyat (UPR) Sukses Selele Kelurahan Mutiara dalam angka, hasil produksi budidaya pembenihan ikan pada data terakhir yaitu agustus tahun 2020. Hal itu tentu saja menjadi sebuah pekerjaan bagi pemerintah karena jumlah produksi budidaya pembenihan ikan berada dibawah rata-rata produksi dalam 12 bulan terakhir. Oleh karena itu sangat diperlukan peramalan untuk mengetahui kondisi produksi budidaya pembenihan ikan agar bisa dilakukan langkah-langkah yang tepat untuk meningkatkan produksi budidaya pembenihan ikan sehingga dapat menyuplai ketersediakan ikan nasional. Untuk mengetahui kondisi hasil produksi budidaya pembenihan ikan diperlukan suatu metode peramalan yang bisa mengetahui/memprediksi hasil produksi budidaya pembenihan ikan tersebut dengan akurasi yang tepat. Kata Kunci: Peramalan; Produksi Budidaya Perikanan; Single Moving Average.

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Sistem Peramalan Penjualan Sepeda Motor Menggunakan Metode Trend Projection Pada Pt. Ud Prima Nusantara

Cited by 6 publications

References 0 publications

Implementation of Double Exponential Smoothing Holt Method in Forecasting Commercial Rice Salws in Perum Bulog Sub Divre Medan

Implementation of Double Exponential Smoothing Holt Method in Forecasting Commercial Rice Salws in Perum Bulog Sub Divre Medan

Forecasting the Gold Jewelry Sales Using Single Exponential Smoothing Method

Peramalan Produksi Budidaya Perikanan Dengan Metode Single Moving Average Di UPR. Sukses Selele Kelurahan Mutiara

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