Simulation of Spatiotemporal Land Use Changes for Integrated Model of Socioeconomic and Ecological Processes in China

Abstract

Land use/land cover changes (LULCC) have been affected by ecological processes as well as socioeconomic and human activities, resulting in several environmental problems. The study of the human–environment system combined with land use/land cover dynamics has received considerable attention in recent decades. We aimed to provide an integrated model that couples land use, socioeconomic influences, and ecosystem processes to explore the future dynamics of land use under two scenarios in China. Under Scenario A, the yield of grain continues to increase, and under Scenario B, the yield of grain remains constant. This study created a LULCC model by integrating a simple global socioeconomic model, a Terrestrial ecosystem simulator (TESim), and a land use allocation model. The results were analyzed by comparing spatiotemporal differences under predicted land use conditions in the two alternative scenarios. The simulation results showed patterns that varied between the two scenarios. In Scenario A, grassland will expand in the future and a large reduction in cropland will be observed. In Scenario B, the augmented expansion of cropland and a drastic shrinkage of forest area will be the main land use conversion features. Scenario A is more promising because more land is preserved for ecological restoration and urbanization, which is in line with China’s Grain for Green Program. Economic development should be based on ecological protection. The results are expected to add insight to sustainable land use development and regional natural resource management in China.

Integrating Ecosystem Service Values and Economic Benefits for Sustainable Land Use Management in Semi-Arid Regions in Northern China

“…Therefore, the land use in the APTZNC reflects both the protection of local ecological security and a response to national policies; moreover, social land use behavior is mainly based on the principle of using economic maximization to make decisions. The inevitable trade-off between economic development and ecological protection has also deepened the human-land divide in the APTZNC, which has made the optimization of land use structures an important issue [14][15][16]. In the Taipusi banner, Deng et al [17] employed CLUE-S (the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small Regional Extent) and optimized various land use sectors both quantitatively and spatially, including the referring scenario, economic scenario, and ecological scenario.…”

“…At the county level, Tang et al [33] estimated the allocation efficiency from the perspective of sustainable development to optimize the allocation between agricultural and non-agricultural land. At the country level, Jiang et al [16] optimized China's six land types by adopting the integrated socioeconomic and ecological model. In addition, advanced methods have been continuously promoted and applied, including gray linear analysis [34], the genetic algorithm [35], and the multi-agent system [36].…”

Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Change of the Upper and Middle Streams of the Luan River, Northern China

“…It also serves other functions such as providing living spaces, transportation, recreation, and so forth, giving land use its multi-functional attributes [2]. Land use is the most direct signal of human impact on the environment [3,4] and includes human activities [5] such as population growth, urbanization, rapid economic development, and human decisions such as local regulations of the economy and environment, institutions, and governance structures [6,7]. The resulting conflicts between humans and nature have become increasingly prominent, gradually becoming a common theme in the field of resource management.…”

A Scenario-Based Simulation of Land System Changes on Dietary Changes: A Case Study in China

“…Specifically, land systems cannot be defined as mutually exclusive classes according to their land-use or land-cover but can be regarded as a series of entities with the same land cover but different land use intensity in application. In addition, land systems can represent multifunctional land, such as rural villages combining residential utilization with crop production and livestock production [23,24].Simulating the trajectories and patterns of land change by a series of scenarios is an accepted way to anticipate land change [25][26][27][28][29]. Comparing different outcomes under different scenarios is conducive to illustrating the adaptation of land systems to macroscopic environments and assisting in the decision-making of sustainable socioeconomic development and ecosystem conservation.…”

“…Simulating the trajectories and patterns of land change by a series of scenarios is an accepted way to anticipate land change [25][26][27][28][29]. Comparing different outcomes under different scenarios is conducive to illustrating the adaptation of land systems to macroscopic environments and assisting in the decision-making of sustainable socioeconomic development and ecosystem conservation.…”