A Scenario-Based Simulation of Land System Changes on Dietary Changes: A Case Study in China

Abstract

The dietary change of Chinese residents is driven by increasing incomes and urbanization, which will bring about non-negligible changes in the food production of the land system. To explore how dietary changes might influence future land systems and the environment, this research hypothesizes two potential dietary change scenarios in the period 2010–2030, based on the current trends and Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents (DGCR), and applies the CLUMondo model to simulate the spatiotemporal patterns of land systems and estimates a lifecycle’s environmental impacts on dietary change. As shown in the results, dietary changes would obviously alter the land cover, agricultural intensity, and livestock density of land systems, and the changes in land use intensity are noteworthy. If the current trend of dietary change is unchecked, the intensification and expansion of agriculture and animal husbandry would be widely distributed in North China and Northwest China, where the intensity of cropland was low in the past and the ecosystem was relatively fragile. Moreover, the increasing demands for food lead to sharp increases in the carbon footprint, water footprint, and ecological footprint from food production. In contrast, the balanced diet recommended by DGCR could offer considerable environmental benefits. This diet is conducive to cutting down land use intensity, helping natural systems avoid intensification, and the expansion of agriculture and animal husbandry, which lower footprints from food production and have helped to implement the policy of returning croplands to grassland and forests in China. Therefore, popularizing balanced diets could be a win–win for human health and environmental sustainability.

A systematic review of the impact of food security governance measures as simulated in modelling studies

“…The neglect of the value chain echelons between production and consumption is in line with previous reviews-which have they do not provide immediate help in times of crises. Nodality and organizational measures typically require longer time horizons, as they often-though not always-require actors to adopt new knowledge 54,70,73 or norms 20,60,84 , or require the construction of large-scale infrastructure 24,66,76 or logistic networks 21,49,85 .…”

“…Water conservation awareness campaign 72 Campaign promoting shopping in supermarkets 14 Dietary guidelines 60,84 Campaign promoting walking to supermarket 20 Trainings in waste separation 77 Two-child policy 149 Packaged self-serve messages (n = 2) Education and training 69,70 Privished messages (n = 0)…”