Simulation of Marine Ferry Routes Based on Graph Theory in the Context of Strategic Planning

Abstract

The issues of implementation of long-term goals of sustainable development of sea passenger transportation, achievement of transportation results, overcoming the negative impact of factors of unstable external environment, which are determined by the chosen course laid down in the basis of strategic management of ferry transportation and choice of route directions, are investigated in the paper. The study indicates that despite the negative impact of COVID-19 and the resulting delayed passenger demand for cruise services, the potential of the maritime ferry and cruise market is very high. It is noted that since 2021 there is a gradual process of recovery of route networks, which takes place in different regions with different dynamics. Therefore, the goals of ferry companies are to implement several strategic planning tasks, among which the task of designing the most efficient new route network is relevant, while companies can start to implement route networks and destinations based on the existing route networks (e. g. networks and destinations of the Baltic Sea) for 2019. It is emphasized that due to the new possibility to attract additional passenger traffic, detailed research and modelling of different options is needed. The Baltic Sea region is chosen as the object for the study, since the local mobility of passageways makes it possible to renew the routes in the shortest possible time. The data for different seas, characterizing the intervals of decline and justifying the necessity of innovations on the basis of new competitive routes creation, are presented in the study. The subject of the study is routes and route networks of the seas regions. The use of models in the form of graphs and algorithms, such as Dijkstra's algorithm, is proposed for modelling different variants of sea ferry routes architecture. The new ferry route network model is implemented in the J-Circos software environment for the subsequent construction of various intensity diagram options. Due to the flexibility of the interfaces and the software environment it is possible to combine the existing networks in 2019 and the proposed new routes in a single information field. In this way, a new possibility to assess the position of a ferry company on the passenger market and to evaluate the quantitative indicators in relation to the other ferry and cruise companies is considered in the paper. The proposed solutions are included in a separate decision-making flowchart for selecting a promotion strategy in the sea region ferry market. The solutions presented have versatility, the methodology and implementation can also be applied to the other sea regions. A new possibility of representing evolutionary changes in the route networks, which also provides an opportunity to further improve the quality of strategic planning and promotion decision-making, forming a separate area of analytical work of a maritime ferry company, is considered.