Abstract:Changes in the Earth's landscape have been the focus of much environmental research. In this context, hydrological models stand out as tools for several assessments. This study aimed to use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model to simulate the impact of changes in land use in the Camboriú River Watershed in the years 1957, 1978, and 2012. The results indicated that the SWAT model was efficient in simulating water flow and sediment transport processes. Thus, it was possible to evaluate th… Show more
“…This module uses a hydrological transport model, which is based on, inter alia, meteorological data, the quantity of surface runoff and the amount of soil fertilization, and enables us to carry out the analysis of phenomena and processes connected with the transportation of nitrogen loads in a sub-basin. With the use of the Macromodel DNS/SWAT, all the elements form a homogenous, numerical sub-basin model that enables us to analyse different scenarios of sub-basin exploitation in different meteorological and hydrological conditions [25,26]. The SWAT module has been used many times to create scenarios of land use change [27,28,29]; in most cases these scenarios were used to predict future events and their impact on the water quality of a catchment.…”
Total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) get into surface waters from both natural and anthropogenic sources. Anthropogenic sources have been relatively well recognised but the natural emmission of nutrients into the rivers, in the case of many catchments, remains a mystery. The paper describes the possibility of using a tool, the Macromodel DNS/SWAT (Discharge Nutrient Sea/Soil and Water Assessment Tool), to estimate the concentration and load of natural background (Natural Pollutant Concentration-NPC and Natural Pollution Load-NPL) for TN and TP and thus to specify the previously developed method of river absorption capacity-RAC. A variant scenario was developed allowing for a "virtual" change in the use of the area of an analysed catchment. This allowed the simulation of the amount of TN and TP in the waters of the main river, the Warta, in a situation where there was no anthropogenic phenomenon in the area. NPC and NPL results were obtained for six calculation profiles located on the central Warta main stream. On this basis, the total absorbency of the Total River Absorption Capacity-RACT River was calculated. The obtained results indicate an increasing pollution of the analyzed river on subsequent Surface Water Bodies (SWB). The values of RAC and RACt parameters for both TN and TP were reduced between the opening and closing profiles of the analyzed catchment by 2651 t/y (TN) and 86 t/y (TP), respectively. K e y w o r d s : Natural background; Total nitrogen; Total phosphorus, RAC parameter, Macromodel DNS/SWAT.
“…This module uses a hydrological transport model, which is based on, inter alia, meteorological data, the quantity of surface runoff and the amount of soil fertilization, and enables us to carry out the analysis of phenomena and processes connected with the transportation of nitrogen loads in a sub-basin. With the use of the Macromodel DNS/SWAT, all the elements form a homogenous, numerical sub-basin model that enables us to analyse different scenarios of sub-basin exploitation in different meteorological and hydrological conditions [25,26]. The SWAT module has been used many times to create scenarios of land use change [27,28,29]; in most cases these scenarios were used to predict future events and their impact on the water quality of a catchment.…”
Total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) get into surface waters from both natural and anthropogenic sources. Anthropogenic sources have been relatively well recognised but the natural emmission of nutrients into the rivers, in the case of many catchments, remains a mystery. The paper describes the possibility of using a tool, the Macromodel DNS/SWAT (Discharge Nutrient Sea/Soil and Water Assessment Tool), to estimate the concentration and load of natural background (Natural Pollutant Concentration-NPC and Natural Pollution Load-NPL) for TN and TP and thus to specify the previously developed method of river absorption capacity-RAC. A variant scenario was developed allowing for a "virtual" change in the use of the area of an analysed catchment. This allowed the simulation of the amount of TN and TP in the waters of the main river, the Warta, in a situation where there was no anthropogenic phenomenon in the area. NPC and NPL results were obtained for six calculation profiles located on the central Warta main stream. On this basis, the total absorbency of the Total River Absorption Capacity-RACT River was calculated. The obtained results indicate an increasing pollution of the analyzed river on subsequent Surface Water Bodies (SWB). The values of RAC and RACt parameters for both TN and TP were reduced between the opening and closing profiles of the analyzed catchment by 2651 t/y (TN) and 86 t/y (TP), respectively. K e y w o r d s : Natural background; Total nitrogen; Total phosphorus, RAC parameter, Macromodel DNS/SWAT.
“…From this perspective, some authors (Deng et al, 2015;Fan & Shibata, 2015;Neupane & Kumar, 2015;Sajikumar & Remya, 2015;Blainski et al, 2017;Gashaw et al, 2018;Zhang et al, 2018;Pereira et al, 2016;Silva et al, 2018) highlight that the land use and cover changes, mainly due to anthropic actions, on a basin have an effect on variables inherent to the water balance, such as the soil infiltration rate, the evapotranspiration, surface runoff and the water bodies recharge. Putting them all together, it's of major importance for the management of water resources to comprehend the impacts of the change of land use and cover on the basin runoff characteristics.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The authors had satisfactory results and concluded that the model may be used with good estimations of the region's water balance. Blainski et al (2017) applied the SWAT model seeking to evaluate the flow alterations due to the changes on land use and cover observed from 1957 until 2012, in Camboriú basin in the Santa Catarina State, southern region of Brazil. They noticed, from the daily flow permanence curve, that the flowing between Q 60 (flow overcome in 60% of the time) and the Q 90 (flow overcome in 90% of the time and which represents the drought condition) was lower in the land use and cover 2012's scenario in comparison to the 1957's one.…”
RESUMO Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar os impactos das alterações do uso e cobertura do solo na bacia do rio Paraíba do Sul utilizando o modelo SWAT. Foram avaliados dois cenários de uso e cobertura do solo, um referente ao ano de 1986 e outro ao ano de 2015. Os resultados mostraram que o modelo SWAT se ajustou muito bem a bacia, após a calibração e validação. Além disso, observou-se que no cenário de 2015 a vazão de longo período, foi inferior em grande parte da área de estudo, com destaque para as sub-bacias no trecho do rio Paraibuna. Notou-se que as alterações no comportamento da curva de permanência foram mais representativas nas estações do rio Paraibuna e do rio Preto. Que na primeira, devido a diminuição da área de floresta, as condições de seca e de vazões mínimas foram intensificadas. Já na segunda, a disponibilidade hídrica melhorou no cenário de 2015, devido ao aumento da área de floresta. Por fim, os resultados aqui apresentados juntamente com o modelo SWAT calibrado podem servir de auxílio aos gestores de recursos hídricos atuantes na bacia do rio Paraíba do Sul e para futuros trabalhos que visem avaliar, também, os impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre a vazão.
“…O método a ser escolhido depende de vários fatores: escala da bacia, tempo de deslocamento da onda da cheia, recursos disponíveis e dos resultados necessários. Então, para realizar a previsão de vazão, podem ser utilizadas metodologias baseadas em: propagação de ondas de cheias, transformação de chuva em vazão e transformação de chuva em vazão com informação adicional de previsão quantitativa de precipitação (Fan, 2015) As modificações dos recursos naturais, causada pela ação antrópica, influenciam nos processos hidrológicos, podendo resultar em eventos extremos, como inundações, estiagens, produção e transporte de sedimentos, entre outros (Blainski et al, 2017;Passos, 2017;Siqueira, 2017;Magalhães e Vieira, 2018). Juntamente com isto, surgiu nas últimas décadas a preocupação com problemas que se manifestam em de grande escala, como as mudanças climáticas e as alterações do uso do solo, o que motivou o desenvolvimento dos estudos voltados para hidrologia de grandes bacias.…”
Bacias hidrográficas são normalmente suscetíveis a inundações devido à associação de fatores ambientais, climáticos e antrópicos. Dentre os métodos utilizados para mitigar os prejuízos provocados por inundações, o sistema de alerta contra cheias pode ser considerado como um dos mais efetivos, devido ao custo relativamente baixo. Neste contexto, o presente trabalho apresenta a avaliação de um modelo de previsão de vazão para os municípios de inseridos na bacia do rio Sapucaí, localizada na região sul do Estado de Minas Gerais. Para isso, é realizada a integração entre o modelo hidrológico MGB-IPH e o modelo atmosférico Eta. São utilizadas previsões de precipitação por conjunto do modelo Eta, que são assimiladas pelo modelo MGB-IPH para gerar previsões de vazão com antecedência de até 5 dias. Os resultados mostram que é possível obter previsões úteis para sistemas e alerta com até 3 dias de antecedência e os melhores resultados são para bacias com maior área de drenagem. Estimation of floods in river basins based on ensemble precipitation forecasts A B S T R A C TWatersheds are normally susceptible to flooding due to the association of environmental, climatic and anthropogenic factors. Among the methods used to mitigate damage caused by floods, the flood warning system can be considered one of the most effective because of the relatively low cost. In this context, the present work presents the evaluation of a flow forecasting model for the municipalities of the Sapucaí river basin, located in the southern region of the State of Minas Gerais. For this, the integration between the hydrological model MGB-IPH and the atmospheric model Eta. Ensemble precipitation forecasts of Eta model are used, which are assimilated by the MGB-IPH model to generate flow forecasts up to 5 days in advance. The results show that it is possible to obtain useful predictions for systems and alerts up to 3 days in advance and the best results are for basins with greater drainage area.
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