Simulation Model of Evacuation Behavior Following a Large-Scale Earthquake that Takes into Account Various Attributes of Residents and Transient Occupants

Osaragi, Toshihiro; Morisawa, Takayuki; Oki, Takuya

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-02447-9_39

Cited by 12 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Please note that the spatial distribution of debris is still an open research question. Some models for estimating geometries of debris were previously presented by Nishino et al (2012), Osaragi et al (2014), Quagliarini et al (2016), Ravari et al (2016), and Argyroudis et al (2015). The latter proposes a simplified geometry to represent the building and the distribution of debris, as shown in Figure 2.…”

Section: Damage Model and State Of The Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This effect has been studied previously in the context of falling contents of single buildings (e.g., Li et al 2015, Liu et al 2016, Xiao et al 2016, Poulos et al 2017). However, the effect of debris on city-scale evacuations that are due to tsunamis has not been studied previously, although similar studies exist for other types of hazards, such as fires following earthquakes (e.g., Nishino et al 2013, Osaragi et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling the Impact of Earthquake-Induced Debris on Tsunami Evacuation Times of Coastal Cities

et al. 2019

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Tsunami alerts following severe earthquakes usually affect large geographical regions and require people to evacuate to higher safety zones. However, evacuation routes may be hindered by building debris and vehicles, thus leading to longer evacuation times and an increased risk of loss of life. Herein, we apply an agent-based model to study the evacuation situation of the coastal city of Iquique, north Chile, where most of the population is exposed to inundation from an incoming tsunami. The study evaluates different earthquake scenarios characterized by different ground motion intensities in terms of the evacuation process within a predefined inundation zone. Evacuating agents consider the microscale interactions with cars and other people using a collision avoidance algorithm. Results for the no ground shaking scenario are compared for validation with those of a real evacuation drill done in 2013 for the entire city. Finally, a parametric analysis is performed with ten different levels of ground motion intensity, showing that evacuation times for 95% of the population increase in 2.5 min on average when considering the effect of building debris.

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Section: Damage Model and State Of The Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Impact of Earthquake-Induced Debris on Tsunami Evacuation Times of Coastal Cities

et al. 2019

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“…The simulation of large-scale evacuation requires the inclusion of a number of human behaviour aspects into the modelling process. According to (Osaragi et al, 2013) the following factors are key to model large scale evacuations following an earthquake: spatiotemporal distribution of people at the time of the earthquake, time at which people start evacuating, decision to head to a temporary refuge location or to the official refuge location and routes that people choose to use (familiar versus safe routes avoiding affected areas). A study of human behaviour during earthquakes, both within structures and outside, (Bernardini et al, 2014) has identified the following behaviours; attraction to safe areas, herding behaviour, attraction between members of the same group, keeping a safe distance from buildings and group formation.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The simulation of urban-scale evacuation scenarios with application to the Swinley forest fire

et al. 2018

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Forest fires are an annual occurrence in many parts of the world forcing large-scale evacuation. The frequent and growing occurrence of these events makes it necessary to develop appropriate evacuation plans for areas that are susceptible to forest fires. The buildingEXODUS evacuation model has been extended to model large-scale urban evacuations by including the road network and open spaces (e.g. parks, green spaces and town squares) along with buildings. The evacuation simulation results have been coupled with the results of a forest fire spread model and applied to the Swinley forest fire which occurred in Berkshire, UK in May 2011. Four evacuation procedures differing in the routes taken by the pedestrians were evaluated providing key evacuation statistics such as time to reach the assembly location, the distance travelled, congestion experienced by the agents and the safety margins associated with using each evacuation route. A key finding of this work is the importance of formulating evacuation procedures that identifies the threatened population, provides timely evacuation notice, identifies appropriate routes that maintains a safe distance from the hazard front thereby maximising safety margins even at the cost of taking longer evacuation routes. Evacuation simulation offers a means of achieving these goals.

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“…When a large-scale disaster occurs, many people will be faced with difficulties in returning to their homes or will be forced to evacuate. 1 For people taking insulin, anticonvulsants, and other medicines that cannot be skipped (even for 1 day), 2 they frequently lose access to such important medication in a disaster or do not carry enough doses to cover the duration of the evacuation period. 3 An important role of pharmacists during a disaster is to supply medication for chronic disease management.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Difficulties in Accessing Medication Records at the Time of a Large-Scale Disaster

Ueno

Murakami

Nagai

et al. 2023

Disaster med. public health prep.

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Objective: In a large-scale disaster, medical professionals need to access medication records and provide medicines to people who cannot return home to take their daily medicines. We investigated the proportion of carrying the paper notebook or availability of the smartphone application of the medication record among people who are assumed to have difficulty in taking their medicines during large-scale disasters. Methods: In Japan, a web-based survey was conducted in 2018 by randomly selecting adults ≥ 20 years of age. Results: There were 2286 medication record owners in 3082 participants. Of the medication record owners, 784 (34.3%) took medicines that could not be missed for even a day. Among them, 724 used paper notebooks alone, 26 used smartphone applications alone, and 34 used both. Among the 724, 208 (28.8%) always carried a paper notebook. Among the 26, 16 (61.5%) could use their applications anytime. Therefore, among the 784, at least 560 (71.4%) could not always access their medication information. Conclusions: An awareness campaign to carry paper notebooks and install applications for medication records should be held, since only a limited number of people carry their medication records and always have access to their medication information.

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Simulation Model of Evacuation Behavior Following a Large-Scale Earthquake that Takes into Account Various Attributes of Residents and Transient Occupants

Cited by 12 publications

References 9 publications

Modeling the Impact of Earthquake-Induced Debris on Tsunami Evacuation Times of Coastal Cities

Modeling the Impact of Earthquake-Induced Debris on Tsunami Evacuation Times of Coastal Cities

The simulation of urban-scale evacuation scenarios with application to the Swinley forest fire

Difficulties in Accessing Medication Records at the Time of a Large-Scale Disaster

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