Modeling the Impact of Earthquake-Induced Debris on Tsunami Evacuation Times of Coastal Cities

Castro, Sebastián; Poulos, Alan; Herrera, Juan Carlos; Llera, Juan Carlos de la

doi:10.1193/101917eqs218m

Cited by 26 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Evacuation routes could be blocked or hindered by debris, and vertical shelters be damaged or inoperative. In this respect, further probabilistic analyses should be conducted to identify those elements in the evacuation network with larger possibilities of structural collapse, and to examine how these failures might impact on evacuation times (see for instance Castro et al, 2018). This, with the purpose of supporting risk reduction policies aimed at strengthening those critical points through retrofitting programs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Built Environment's Physical Urban Form in Supporting Rapid Tsunami Evacuations: Using Computer-Based Models and Real-World Data as Examination Tools

León

Mokrani

Catalán

et al. 2019

Front. Built Environ.

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Cities are increasingly becoming hot-spots for nature-originated disasters. While the role of the urban built environment in fostering disaster resilience has been recognized for some time, it has been difficult to translate this potential into practice. This is especially challenging in the case of rapid onset crises such as near-field tsunamis when appropriate urban forms must support the populations' ability to autonomously carry out safe and timely responses. In this respect, much of current research remains focused on large-scale elements of urban configuration (streets, squares, parks, etc.,) through which people move during an emergency. In contrast, the critical micro-scale of evacuees' experiences within the built environment is not commonly examined. This paper addresses this shortfall through a macro-and micro-scale analysis of a near-field tsunami scenario affecting the city of Viña del Mar, Chile, including a mixed-methods approach that combines computer-based models and fieldwork. The results show significant macro-scale tsunami vulnerability throughout major areas of the city, which nonetheless could be mitigated by existing nearby high ground and an urban form that allows short evacuation times. However, micro-scale outcomes show comparatively deficient spatial conditions that during an emergency might lead to dangerous outcomes including bottlenecks, falls and panic. Vertical evacuation, in turn, is confirmed as a suitable option for reducing vulnerability, but further examination of each shelter's characteristics is required.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Built Environment's Physical Urban Form in Supporting Rapid Tsunami Evacuations: Using Computer-Based Models and Real-World Data as Examination Tools

León

Mokrani

Catalán

et al. 2019

Front. Built Environ.

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“…Moreover, the speed of an agent can be affected by the slope of the terrain, as when an agent is moving uphill or downhill, its speed is reduced by a factor g that depends on the slope's value. g is calculated using Equation (3) given by Castro et al and Tobler, 60,61 where u is the slope angle relative to the horizontal plane (in degrees). In addition to the slope, the presence of debris further constrains the agent's mobility: when an agent is in a debris zone, it is moving on unsteady objects, and therefore the agent needs to adjust its speed to manage this instability.…”

Section: Mobilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Agent-based simulation of seismic crisis including human behavior: application to the city of Beirut, Lebanon

Iskandar,

Dugdale,

Beck

et al. 2023

SIMULATION

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Earthquake simulations at the urban scale usually focus on estimating the damages to the built environment and the consequent losses without fully taking into account human behavior in crisis. Yet, human behavior is a key element for improving crisis disaster management; therefore, it is important to include it in seismic crisis simulations. In this study, an agent-based model for the simulation of pedestrian evacuation during earthquakes at the city scale is developed following an interdisciplinary approach. The model recreates the urban conditions using Geographic Information System (GIS) and a synthetic population, in addition to the earthquake consequences on the urban fabric. Moreover, the model integrates realistic human behaviors calibrated using quantitative survey results. We simulate pedestrian outdoor mobility with the different constraints that affect it such as the topography and the presence of debris. The simulator is applied to the case of Beirut, Lebanon. A what-if approach is adopted to analyze the population’s safety in case of earthquakes in Beirut, particularly the open spaces’ capacity to provide shelters and the effect of debris and realistic human behaviors on people’s safety. The simulation results show that less than 40% of the population is able to arrive at an open space within 15 min after an earthquake. This number is further reduced when some open spaces are locked. Debris and realistic human behaviors significantly delay the arrivals to safe areas and, therefore, should not be neglected in earthquake simulations.

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“…He 18 used probability to estimate the damage to nonstructural components within a building to simulate pedestrians' seismic evacuation in a multi‐story building. Castro et al 19 estimated outdoor debris of nonstructural components using fragility curves and discovered that they significantly affected the crowd's evacuation time.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismic evacuation simulation in a dynamic indoor environment

Chu

Liu

et al. 2022

Computer Animation & Virtual

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During an earthquake, interior nonstructural components of a building will be damaged. The damaged objects will obstruct pedestrians' evacuation routes and increase casualties. But this issue has received scant attention in evacuation simulation research. This paper focuses on this issue and proposes an indoor seismic evacuation model to simulate crowd evacuation in a dynamic environment.A physical model of nonstructural components is presented to simulate the dynamics of the indoor scenario. The flow field algorithm is constructed to guide pedestrian's avoidance behaviors globally to reflect the impact of environmental changes on indoor crowd path selection, and a modified social force model is built to simulate the joint influence of seismic forces and the environment on pedestrian motion states. The results of the experiments shows that the proposed model can generate realistic evacuation scene and rational evacuation routes in the earthquake.

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Modeling the Impact of Earthquake-Induced Debris on Tsunami Evacuation Times of Coastal Cities

Cited by 26 publications

References 38 publications

The Role of Built Environment's Physical Urban Form in Supporting Rapid Tsunami Evacuations: Using Computer-Based Models and Real-World Data as Examination Tools

The Role of Built Environment's Physical Urban Form in Supporting Rapid Tsunami Evacuations: Using Computer-Based Models and Real-World Data as Examination Tools

Agent-based simulation of seismic crisis including human behavior: application to the city of Beirut, Lebanon

Seismic evacuation simulation in a dynamic indoor environment

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