Simulating the urban growth dimensions and scenario prediction through sleuth model: a case study of Rasht County, Guilan, Iran

Dezhkam, Sadeq; Amiri, Bahman Jabbarian; Darvishsefat, A A; Sakieh, Yousef

doi:10.1007/s10708-013-9515-9

Cited by 48 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…These maps were then converted to urban/non-urban results by a cutoff probability value. Here, a justified approach to identify the reasonable cutoff value is to assess the histogram frequency of probabilities (Dezhkam et al, 2013;Rafiee et al, 2009;Wu et al, 2008). After evaluating the projected maps in 2080, we found that there was a steep increase of urbanized cells around the probability of 90 %.…”

Section: Model Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An examination of land use impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise

Song¹,

Fu²,

Gu³

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Coastal regions become unprecedentedly vulnerable to coastal hazards that are associated with sea level rise. The purpose of this paper is therefore to simulate prospective urban exposure to changing sea levels. This article first applied the cellular-automaton-based SLEUTH model (Project Gigalopolis, 2016) to calibrate historical urban dynamics in Bay County, Florida (USA) -a region that is greatly threatened by rising sea levels. This paper estimated five urban growth parameters by multiple-calibration procedures that used different Monte Carlo iterations to account for modeling uncertainties. It then employed the calibrated model to predict three scenarios of urban growth up to 2080 -historical trend, urban sprawl, and compact development. We also assessed land use impacts of four policies: no regulations; flood mitigation plans based on the whole study region and on those areas that are prone to experience growth; and the protection of conservational lands. This study lastly overlaid projected urban areas in 2030 and 2080 with 500-year flooding maps that were developed under 0, 0.2, and 0.9 m sea level rise. The calibration results that a substantial number of built-up regions extend from established coastal settlements. The predictions suggest that total flooded area of new urbanized regions in 2080 would be more than 25 times that under the flood mitigation policy, if the urbanization progresses with few policy interventions. The joint model generates new knowledge in the domain between land use modeling and sea level rise. It contributes to coastal spatial planning by helping develop hazard mitigation schemes and can be employed in other international communities that face combined pressure of urban growth and climate change.

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Section: Model Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Compact urban forms are advocated because of their environmental friendliness and benefits for energy conservation (Dezhkam et al, 2013;Mahiny and Gholamalifard, 2007). However, this might not be true in flat coastal areas from the perspective of hazard mitigation.…”

Section: Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An examination of land use impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise

Song¹,

Fu²,

Gu³

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Three different methods have been used to predict urban growth under different scenarios: evaluation of the change in the growth coefficients, manipulation of self-organization constraints, and investigation of the different levels of protection values in the excluded layer [32]. The third method was used to predict urban growth to 2020.…”

Section: Model Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating Land Use Change in the Seoul Metropolitan Area after Greenbelt Elimination Using the SLEUTH Model

2017

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The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of a policy aimed at the removal of a greenbelt on future urban growth. The SLEUTH model was applied to the Seoul Metropolitan Area, South Korea, to predict urban growth under three different greenbelt removal scenarios. The accuracy of the model was verified using historical data with ROC and Kappa statistics of 82.6 and 76.3%, indicating reasonable accuracy. In the scenarios, suburban development grew in proportion to the degree of reduction of the greenbelt. In two of the scenarios, suburban cities in the inner part of the greenbelt were integrated into the metropolitan area. In scenario 3, a complete removal of the greenbelt resulted in the highest rate of projected urban development. The Seoul Metropolitan Area is under continuous developmental pressure, and the sacrifice of a certain amount of protected land to satisfy this demand may be inevitable. Accordingly, effective urban growth management is necessary to promote ecofriendly and sustainable development in formerly protected areas and to strengthen protection in the areas that will remain protected. The model outputs will be used by the government and policy makers to devise a more flexible and sustainable urban growth management policy.

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“…The existing sediments in Rasht city is related to the fourth age of geology. Rasht city is located on the confluence of 5 types of sediment including coastal sediments, new marine sediments, wetland sediments, the new alluvium delta and marine sediments in terms of geology [6].…”

Section: Fig2 Location Of Rasht City In Gilan Plainmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Developed Procedure for Predicting the Risk of Liquefaction: A Case Study of Rasht City

rokni¹

2017

geomate

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Soil liquefaction is one of the most important and complex seismic geotechnical and engineering topics. Most experimental methods in the study of liquefaction have been based on deterministic analysis, and parameters, such as soil resistance and earthquake loads, have been considered without dispersion and fault. Statistical analysis, particularly reliability analysis, is a new and comprehensive approach used to solve and evaluate problems, as well as entering of uncertainties in calculations. In this study, information on 50 boreholes were obtained using a database of Standard Penetration Test (STP), and diverse experimental procedures, such as NCEER2001, Idriss and Boulanger, Highway bridge of Japan, OCDI and reliability approach, were used in the evaluation of soil liquefaction in Rasht and finally, the results were compared with each other. By comparing the different methods, it was observed that these methods do not correspond with clay soils and their results were different from each other. Also, safety factor of greater or lesser than one is the mean of safety and occurrence of liquefaction, therefore, reliability analysis was used to ensure the probability of liquefaction. Finally, two empirical relationships based on the probability of liquefaction (PL) and safety factor (FS) were proposed from which the liquefaction potential can be calculated directly. Soil liquefaction risk can be assessed by the proposed relationship between (PL) and (FS) based on deterministic approaches.

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Simulating the urban growth dimensions and scenario prediction through sleuth model: a case study of Rasht County, Guilan, Iran

Cited by 48 publications

References 43 publications

An examination of land use impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise

An examination of land use impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise

Simulating Land Use Change in the Seoul Metropolitan Area after Greenbelt Elimination Using the SLEUTH Model

A Developed Procedure for Predicting the Risk of Liquefaction: A Case Study of Rasht City

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