Simulating Land Use Change in the Seoul Metropolitan Area after Greenbelt Elimination Using the SLEUTH Model

Abstract

The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of a policy aimed at the removal of a greenbelt on future urban growth. The SLEUTH model was applied to the Seoul Metropolitan Area, South Korea, to predict urban growth under three different greenbelt removal scenarios. The accuracy of the model was verified using historical data with ROC and Kappa statistics of 82.6 and 76.3%, indicating reasonable accuracy. In the scenarios, suburban development grew in proportion to the degree of reduction of the greenbelt. In two of the scenarios, suburban cities in the inner part of the greenbelt were integrated into the metropolitan area. In scenario 3, a complete removal of the greenbelt resulted in the highest rate of projected urban development. The Seoul Metropolitan Area is under continuous developmental pressure, and the sacrifice of a certain amount of protected land to satisfy this demand may be inevitable. Accordingly, effective urban growth management is necessary to promote ecofriendly and sustainable development in formerly protected areas and to strengthen protection in the areas that will remain protected. The model outputs will be used by the government and policy makers to devise a more flexible and sustainable urban growth management policy.

Necessity of a Multifaceted Approach in Analyzing Growth of Impervious Surfaces

“…SLEUTH, which was proposed by Clarke et al in [28], refers to an acronym for the input data requirements for running the simulation: Slope, land use, exclusion, urban extent, transportation, and hill shade. This model is able to capture the complex emergence of urban growth due to its rules and calibration procedures [29][30][31]. Furthermore, the SLEUTH model can insert urban development policies and plans into the models through variations in the excluded layer [32,33].…”

Research on Land Use Planning Based on Multisource Remote Sensing Data

“…The virtuous circle of land use system is determined by the rationality of land use structure. Land use changes are analyzed correctly, a series of improvements are carried out appropriately according to the changes, the relationship between land use development and economic and human survival is handled correctly, and the healthy and orderly development of the entire society is promoted [ 4 , 5 ]. This study analyzes the dynamic change characteristics of its land use and obtains the changes in cultivated land, vegetation, roads, residential land, and water areas, as well as the trend of human factors [ 3 , 6 , 7 ].…”