Simulating the Impacts of Hybrid Campus and Autonomous Electric Vehicles as GHG Mitigation Strategies: A Case Study for a Mid-Size Canadian Post-Secondary School

Abstract

This paper presents how a post-secondary institution like University of British Columbia’s Okanagan (UBCO) campus can reduce its carbon footprint and be aligned with the government’s target through promoting virtual campus and autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs). Different virtual campus scenarios are developed: online classes only, working-from-home only, and a hybrid of both. In the case of AEVs, alternative penetration rates for levels 2 and 5 are considered. A total of 50 scenarios are tested using a sub-area transport simulation model for UBCO, which is extracted from the regional travel demand forecasting model. The results suggest that a 40% AEV penetration rate coupled with fully in-person classes reduces GHG by ~36% compared to the 2018-level, which will help UBCO to achieve their 2030 emission reduction target and be aligned with the provincial target. The 50% AEV and 10% hybrid virtual campus reduces emissions by ~48%, which is aligned with the 2040 provincial target. A fully virtual campus will help to reach the 2050 provincial target by reducing GHG by ~76%. The results further demonstrate that level 5 AEVs produce lesser emissions than level 2 at a lower AEV penetration rate for the fully in-person campus scenario. At higher penetration rates, level 5 performs better only if it is coupled with 10% of students, faculties and staffs attending virtual campus scenario.

Travel Demand Increment Due to the Use of Autonomous Vehicles

“…Many researchers expect that introducing autonomous vehicles as next-generation driving systems will remarkably impact traffic capacity and safety [1][2][3]. Furthermore, AVs are believed to have outstanding advantages in other important parameters such as reducing energy intensity, fuel consumption and emissions, travel time, and congestion [4][5][6]. Therefore, the desire to use this new form of transport has become a globally spread fact, especially in modern societies.…”

Rebound effects undermine carbon footprint reduction potential of autonomous electric vehicles

“…In addition, in terms of energy consumption, using autonomous vehicles fleet provides significant advantages over identical internal combustion engine vehicles by up to 67%. Another study explored the use of autonomous vehicles within university campuses and showed that they could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 36% at a 40% penetration level 19 . As the penetration level increases, there will be a greater reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.…”