Simulating the impact of policy, energy prices and technological progress on the passenger car fleet in Austria—A model based analysis 2010–2050

Kloess, M.; Müller, Andreas

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.06.008

Cited by 62 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The average efficiency increase of vehicles in the SULTAN scenario was compared to two other studies. The average yearly efficiency increase in conventional cars is between 1.03% to 1.23% which is similar to numbers found in [37,38]. EV efficiency increases by 0.86% for battery electric vehicles (BEV) and 1.08% for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV).…”

Section: The Reference Year 2050supporting

confidence: 66%

Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach

2017

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This paper analyses decarbonisation scenarios for the European passenger car fleet in 2050. The scenarios have been developed using the backcasting approach and aim to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of passenger cars to a level defined in the Transport White paper that is 60% below 1990 levels. Considering the emission levels of 2010, a yearly reduction of 1.7% is required in order to achieve the target. Car emissions were decomposed into the main emission factors of mobility, efficiency and carbon intensity. How these factors change over time depends on various external factors: the pace of technological improvements, the future role of cars in society's mobility system and the priority given to decarbonising energy demand. The analysis showed that if car mobility and ownership continue to increase as expected in a 'business as usual' case, a share of 97% plug-in hybrid or battery electric vehicles might be required by 2050, together with a substantial decrease in greenhouse gas emission from electricity production. A transition to more advanced car technology such as automated driving, advanced batteries or lightweight materials in vehicle production would raise vehicle efficiency. Should car mobility continue at a high level, an early technology transition will be required.

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Section: The Reference Year 2050supporting

confidence: 66%

Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach

2017

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“…Although the issue of GHG abatement through vehicle fleet renewal and electrification receives considerable attention from scientists [23,29,31], extensive literature reviews have shown no example of another approach to automobile market forecasting equivalent to ours. It appears to be unique in combining the following three features: (i) Nested logit modelling is applied to a disaggregate set of complete nationwide new vehicle sales data over an extended period.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A generic discrete choice model of automobile purchase

Østli

Fridstrøm

Johansen

et al. 2017

Eur. Transp. Res. Rev.

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Purpose The introduction of novel fuel and propulsion technologies, such as battery, (plug-in) hybrid and fuel cell electric vehicles, and the need to combat the exhaust emission of local and global pollutants from the passenger car fleet have enhanced the political interest in the vehicle purchase choices made by private households and firms, and in how these choices can be influenced through fiscal and regulatory penalties and incentives. Methods As a tool to understand and analyse such questions, we have developed a generic nested logit model of automobile choice, based on complete disaggregate vehicle sales data for Norway for the period ranging from January 1996 until July 2011. The data set contains 1.6 million vehicle transactions. Results Being sensitive to changes in the vehicle purchase tax and the fuel tax, the model discriminates well between various fiscal policy scenarios. In using the model for such purposes, one is greatly helped by the fact that the model distinguishes between price changes due to taxation and those originating from the manufacturing or marketing side. Conclusions The strongly CO 2 graduated vehicle purchase tax, with exemptions granted for battery electric vehicles, is shown to have a major impact on the average type approval rate of CO 2 emissions from new passenger cars registered in Norway. The fuel tax also helps induce car customers to buy low emission vehicles.

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“…Two general approaches can be used to determine fleet survival rate. These methods include using the logistic curve (Bandivadekar and Cheah, 2008;Bastani et al, 2012;Feeney and Cardebring, 1988;Greene and Chen, 1981) or the Weibull distribution function (Kloess and Müller, 2011;Kwon, 2006;Zachariadis et al, 2001). For the purpose of this model, the survival rate of new vehicles is determined by using a logistic curve as shown in Eq.…”

Section: Stockmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Local policies such as fiscal measures (i.e. vehicle and fuel taxation) are evaluated in national-scale models such as that used in the UK Transport Carbon Model (Brand et al, 2012) or in Kloess and Müller (2011) where the Austrian passenger car fleet is simulated. Ex-post analysis of car taxation policies has also emerged with case studies being completed in Ireland (Rogan et al, 2011) and in France (D'Haultfoeuille et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis

et al. 2016

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This paper builds a model to estimate current car fleet energy consumption in Andorra and forecasts such consumption as a reference scenario. It shows how a useful modelling tool can be developed and applied in the absence of significant data. The base-year model is built through a bottom-up methodology using vehicle registration and technical inspection data. The model forecasts energy consumption up to 2050, taking into account the fleet structure, the car survival profile, trends in activity of the various car categories, and the fuel price and income elasticities that affect car stock and total fleet activity. It provides an initial estimate of private car energy demand in Andorra and charts a baseline scenario that describes a hypothetical future based on historical trends. A local sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive input parameters and study the effect of its variability. In addition, four scenarios are built to represent the largest expected variability in the results with respect to the reference scenario and provide a broad estimate of potential energy savings related to different policy strategies.

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Simulating the impact of policy, energy prices and technological progress on the passenger car fleet in Austria—A model based analysis 2010–2050

Cited by 62 publications

References 21 publications

Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach

Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach

A generic discrete choice model of automobile purchase

Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis

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