Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach

Höltl, Arne; Macharis, Cathy; Brucker, Klaas De

doi:10.3390/en11010020

Cited by 21 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…This increase varies between 0.04-0.13%; CC is the category in which the most substantial increases occur. Notwithstanding the above, general results support that renewing the vehicle fleet is an effective strategy to reduce its pollution effects [50,105,106], because all of the cases present reductions when the change is from the Euro 4 engine to the Euro 6 engine.…”

Section: Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysismentioning

confidence: 80%

A Cradle to Handover Life Cycle Assessment of External Walls: Choice of Materials and Prognosis of Elements

et al. 2018

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This research focuses on a comparison of 20 external wall systems that are conventionally used in Spanish residential buildings, from a perspective based on the product and construction process stages of the life cycle assessment. The primary objective is to provide data that allow knowing the environmental behavior of walls built with materials and practices conventionally. This type of analysis will enable promoting the creation of regulations that encourage the use of combinations of materials that generate the most environmentally suitable result, and in turn, contribute to the strengthening of the embodied stages study of buildings and their elements. The results indicate that the greatest impact arises in the product stage (90.9%), followed by the transport stage (8.9%) and the construction process stage (<1%). Strategies (such as the use of large-format pieces and the controlled increase in thickness of the thermal insulation) can contribute to reducing the environmental impact; on the contrary, practices such as the use of small-format pieces and laminated plasterboard can increase the environmental burden. The prediction of the environmental behavior (simulation equation) allows these possible impacts to be studied in a fast and simplified way.

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Section: Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysismentioning

confidence: 80%

A Cradle to Handover Life Cycle Assessment of External Walls: Choice of Materials and Prognosis of Elements

et al. 2018

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“…Quantitative scenario analysis, a quantitative evaluation of the development scenarios of things, has been applied to fields, such as evaluating the development trends of organizational strategies. Quiceno (2019) and Höltl (2019) et al combined the quantitative scenario analysis method with qualitative analysis methods, such as DELPHI to perform a dynamic analysis of the development trends of industries, such as the Columbian electric industry and the European new energy vehicle industry [18][19]. However, few studies have analyzed the ecological safety development trends in mining areas by using the quantitative scenario analysis method.…”

Section: State Of the Artmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Quantitative Scenario Analysis Method for Ecological Safety Development Trends in Rare Earth Mining Areas

Wang¹,

Liu²,

Ming-gui³

et al. 2019

JESTR

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Rare earth mining can cause ecological problems as a result of soil erosion and water pollution in local areas. Thus assessing the development trends of ecological safety is crucial in formulating the environmental protection policies in rare earth area. Rare earth mining is a long and complicated process in which the state values of evaluation indicators for ecological safety are dynamic and continual interplay. Hence, conventionally measured indicators are inadequate in this context. An evaluation method based on the theory of quantitative scenario analysis was proposed in this study to analyze ecological safety development trends in rare earth mining areas. First, according to the PSR model framework, six indicators including "mining technology", "mining intensity", "water environment", "soil environment", "waste water, waste gas and waste residue management technologies" and "environmental protection policy", were selected to reveal the ecological safety in mining areas. Second, the crossover probability algorithm, Markov chain and nonlinear programming were utilized to construct a quantitative scenario analysis model for ecological safety development trends. Lastly, the model was verified using the data on Lingbei rare earth mining area located in Ganzhou City, China. Results showed that the quantitative scenario analysis model could be used to calculate the changes in various indicators, their cross impacts in the development process and the occurrence probability of scenario combinations for ecological safety development that were composed of the state changes of each indicator. These findings indicate that the proposed model can effectively and accurately forecast the ecological safety development trends in rare earth mining areas. The conclusions can provide a theoretical basis for environmental protection work in rare earth mining areas.

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“…Global transport emissions are approximately 23% and growing [1]. To rapidly transition away from fossil-fuelled transport by 2050 requires 97% decarbonisation of the car fleet, assuming a business-as-usual growth in transport activity, and a substantial decrease in electricity emissions [2]. Any Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV) sold continues to emit the same level of CO 2 per kilometre for its lifetime, whereas electric vehicle (EV) emissions decrease in tandem with electricity supply improvements [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Electric Vehicle Uptake: Understanding the Print Media’s Role in Changing Attitudes and Perceptions

Broadbent

Wiedmann

Metternicht

2021

WEVJ

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Passenger motor vehicle transport is a significant and growing emissions source contributing to climate change. Switching from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles (EV) would significantly reduce most countries’ emissions, but for many consumers perceived barriers deter EV adoption. Consequently, government policies designed to incentivise a transition to EVs could benefit from consideration of the utility of communication channels such as print media for influencing consumer behaviour. This research explores the role that media and other communication channels writing about EVs play in consumer perceptions and awareness of government-initiated programs and policies to incentivise EV market transition. Using mixed methods of a media review and New Zealand car buyer surveys (questionnaires, interviews) (n = 893), we identified car buyers’ media use to update knowledge about cars, perceptions about EVs, and likelihood to buy, and tested awareness and popularity of incentives. We derive recommendations for policy improvements to accelerate EV uptake, including a significant role for the print media to disseminate relevant information, increase awareness of policies, and shift perceptions about EVs. We argue that social marketing programs should be enhanced to overcome lack of knowledge and misinformation, focusing on the market segment next most likely to buy EVs.

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Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach

Cited by 21 publications

References 35 publications

A Cradle to Handover Life Cycle Assessment of External Walls: Choice of Materials and Prognosis of Elements

A Cradle to Handover Life Cycle Assessment of External Walls: Choice of Materials and Prognosis of Elements

A Quantitative Scenario Analysis Method for Ecological Safety Development Trends in Rare Earth Mining Areas

Electric Vehicle Uptake: Understanding the Print Media’s Role in Changing Attitudes and Perceptions

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