A Quantitative Scenario Analysis Method for Ecological Safety Development Trends in Rare Earth Mining Areas

Abstract

Rare earth mining can cause ecological problems as a result of soil erosion and water pollution in local areas. Thus assessing the development trends of ecological safety is crucial in formulating the environmental protection policies in rare earth area. Rare earth mining is a long and complicated process in which the state values of evaluation indicators for ecological safety are dynamic and continual interplay. Hence, conventionally measured indicators are inadequate in this context. An evaluation method based on the theory of quantitative scenario analysis was proposed in this study to analyze ecological safety development trends in rare earth mining areas. First, according to the PSR model framework, six indicators including "mining technology", "mining intensity", "water environment", "soil environment", "waste water, waste gas and waste residue management technologies" and "environmental protection policy", were selected to reveal the ecological safety in mining areas. Second, the crossover probability algorithm, Markov chain and nonlinear programming were utilized to construct a quantitative scenario analysis model for ecological safety development trends. Lastly, the model was verified using the data on Lingbei rare earth mining area located in Ganzhou City, China. Results showed that the quantitative scenario analysis model could be used to calculate the changes in various indicators, their cross impacts in the development process and the occurrence probability of scenario combinations for ecological safety development that were composed of the state changes of each indicator. These findings indicate that the proposed model can effectively and accurately forecast the ecological safety development trends in rare earth mining areas. The conclusions can provide a theoretical basis for environmental protection work in rare earth mining areas.