Simulating the impact of climate change on rice production in Asia and evaluating options for adaptation

Matthews, Robin; Kropff, M.J.; Horie, Takeshi; Bachelet, Dominique

doi:10.1016/s0308-521x(95)00060-i

Cited by 254 publications

(147 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Our study confirms predictions from simulation studies (8,16,17) of substantial yield reductions caused by higher mean daily temperature. However, yield reductions caused by global warming predicted by simulation tend to be smaller.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 88%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming

Peng

Huang

Sheehy

et al. 2004

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

1,951

1,202

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 88%

“…(16). For rice, simulated yield potential in the major rice-growing regions of Asia with present atmospheric CO 2 concentration decreased by 7% for every 1°C rise above current mean temperature (17).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming

Peng

Huang

Sheehy

et al. 2004

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

1,951

1,202

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…For example, clear trends of yield stagnation are evident in three of China's major rice-producing provinces, which account for more than 35% of Chinese rice production ( Figure 3b). Likewise, yields are increasing very slowly in Japan (Figure 3a) and Korea (data not shown), where average farm yields are currently about 80% of yield potential estimated by crop simulation models (21).…”

Section: Importance Of Maintaining An Exploitable Yield Gapmentioning

confidence: 87%

Meeting Cereal Demand While Protecting Natural Resources and Improving Environmental Quality

Cassman

Dobermann

Walters

et al. 2003

Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour.

849

476

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Agriculture is a resource-intensive enterprise. The manner in which food production systems utilize resources has a large influence on environmental quality. To evaluate prospects for conserving natural resources while meeting increased demand for cereals, we interpret recent trends and future trajectories in crop yields, land and nitrogen fertilizer use, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse gas emissions to identify key issues and challenges. Based on this assessment, we conclude that avoiding expansion of cultivation into natural ecosystems, increased nitrogen use efficiency, and improved soil quality are pivotal components of a sustainable agriculture that meets human needs and protects natural resources. To achieve this outcome will depend on raising the yield potential and closing existing yield gaps of the major cereal crops to avoid yield stagnation in some of the world's most productive systems. Recent trends suggest, however, that increasing crop yield potential is a formidable scientific challenge that has proven to be an elusive goal.

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“…In this range, Rubisco carboxilation activity is promptly increased with the increase in atmospheric CO 2 , resulting in a linear increase in the rate of leaf photosynthesis. This biochemical response has been used as a general background, for assuming that plant growth increases linearly from current to elevated CO 2 concentrations in crop simulation models (Matthews et al, 1997;Walter et al, 2010). Although by this linear approach, in the range from 350 to 700 ppmv, CO 2 gives the right response of RUE at the upper-end portion of the CO 2 response range (around 700 ppmv), it greatly overestimates the response of RUE on a crop canopy level at 500-600 ppmv (Figure 1), which is a CO 2 concentration range expected in the upcoming 20-40 years (Moss et al, 2010).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is the staple food of about half of the world population, and Brazil is the largest rice producer outside Asia, with about 2.8 million hectars grown annually (United States Department of Agriculture, 2011). Traditionally, the effect of CO 2 on agricultural crops, including rice, has been simulated in climate change studies using the "current/elevated CO 2 " approach, i.e., crop models are run at current CO 2 (usually 350-360 ppmv) and, then, run again at an elevated CO 2 concentration scenario (usually doubled CO 2 -700 ppmv) (Matthews et al, 1997;Streck & Alberto, 2006;Walter et al, 2010). The four new RCP-based groups of climate scenarios demand a redesign of this traditional approach, for simulating the CO 2 effects on crops by using a CO 2 -response function in simulation models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

CO2-response function of radiation use efficiency in rice for climate change scenarios

Streck

Rosa

Walter

et al. 2012

Pesq. agropec. bras.

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-The objective of this work was to evaluate a generalized response function to the atmospheric CO 2 concentration [f(CO 2 )] by the radiation use efficiency (RUE) in rice. Experimental data on RUE at different CO 2 concentrations were collected from rice trials performed in several locations around the world. RUE data were then normalized, so that all RUE at current CO 2 concentration were equal to 1. The response function was obtained by fitting normalized RUE versus CO 2 concentration to a Morgan-Mercer-Flodin (MMF) function, and by using Marquardt's method to estimate the model coefficients. Goodness of fit was measured by the standard deviation of the estimated coefficients, the coefficient of determination (R 2 ), and the root mean square error (RMSE). The f(CO 2 ) describes a nonlinear sigmoidal response of RUE in rice, in function of the atmospheric CO 2 concentration, which has an ecophysiological background, and, therefore, renders a robust function that can be easily coupled to rice simulation models, besides covering the range of CO 2 emissions for the next generation of climate scenarios for the 21 st century.Index terms: Oryza sativa, global warming, modeling, photosynthesis. Função de resposta a CO 2 na eficiência de uso da radiação em arroz para cenários de mudanças climáticasResumo -O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar uma função de resposta generalizada à concentração de CO 2 atmosférico [f (CO 2 )] pela eficiência de uso de radiação (RUE) em arroz. Os dados experimentais de RUE, em diferentes concentrações de CO 2 , foram coletados de ensaios sobre o arroz realizados em diferentes locais do mundo. Os dados de RUE foram normalizados de modo que todos os valores de RUE, na atual concentração de CO 2 , foram iguais a 1. A função de resposta foi obtida pelos valores de RUE normalizados versus a concentração de CO 2 , ajustados à função de Morgan-Mercer-Flodin (MMF), com uso do método de Marquardt para estimar os coeficientes do modelo. O ajuste da função foi medido pelo desvio-padrão dos coeficientes estimados, o coeficiente de determinação (R²) e a raiz do quadrado médio do erro (RQME). A f(CO 2 ) descreve uma resposta não linear sigmoidal da RUE em arroz, em função da concentração do CO 2 atmosférico, o que tem significado ecofisiológico e, portanto, é uma função robusta que pode ser facilmente acoplada a modelos de simulação de arroz, além de abranger as emissões de CO 2 para a próxima geração de cenários climáticos para o século 21.Termos para indexação: Oryza sativa, aquecimento global, modelagem, fotossíntese.

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Simulating the impact of climate change on rice production in Asia and evaluating options for adaptation

Cited by 254 publications

References 12 publications

Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming

Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming

Meeting Cereal Demand While Protecting Natural Resources and Improving Environmental Quality

CO2-response function of radiation use efficiency in rice for climate change scenarios

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