Simulating the effects of a climate-change scenario on the geographical range and activity of forest-pathogenic fungi

Abstract

The aim of the study was to explore possible effects of climate change on the geographic range or local impact of several forest pathogenic fungi. To this aim, (1) the parameters of species' responses to climatic variables were determined, in two types of models: specific statistical models and the generic model CLIMEX; (2) these models were used to make simulations under a future climatic scenario, based on a general circulation model of climate, which was regionalized over France. A range of pathogens commonly reported in Europe were studied : Melampsora larici-populina, M. allii-populina and M. medusae, agents of poplar rust, Mycosphaerella pini , agent of red-band disease of pines, Melampsora pinitorqua., agent of pine twisting rust, Cryphonectria parasitica, agent of chestnut blight, Phytophthora cinnamomi, agent of ink disease on chestnut and oaks, Sphaeropsis sapinea and Biscogniauxia mediterranea, opportunistic pathogens (cortical endophytes) on pines and oaks, respectively. The predicted warming would be favourable to most studied species, especially those for which winter survival is a limiting factor linked to low temperatures (P. cinnamomi et M. medusae). For some species such as M. pini, the favourable effect of warming would be counterbalanced by the negative effect of a decrease in summer rainfall, leading to a stable or decreased impact of these pathogens by the end of the century. Conversely, B. mediterranea et S. sapinea, favoured by water stress, should have an increased impact. Interest and limitations of the different models are discussed. Some implications of the projected changes in "forest phytosanitary landscape" are presented in terms of research and management issues.

Introduced pathogens found on ornamentals, strawberry and trees in Finland over the past 20 years

“…The trade has also increased the spread of associated organisms, some of which are plant pathogens (Hansen 2008, Desprez-Loustau et al 2010. Simultaneously, climate change predictions are going to affect the distribution and virulence of pathogens, many of which have not been considered important because of an unfavorable climate (Desprez-Loustau et al 2007). It is interesting that although the ornamental plant trade has obviously been the most frequently utilized pathway for pathogens to reach Finland, organisms arriving by more natural means have so far caused the most extensive damage.…”

An economic comparison of risk handling measures against Hylobius abietis and Heterobasidion annosum in the Landes de Gascogne Forest

“…Such risks are likely to increase in the near future due to rising temperatures and an increased recurrence of major climatic events (Kovats et al 2014). Moreover, it has been demonstrated that a rise in temperature leads to an increase of some biotic hazards (Rouault et al 2006), whereas the increase in frequency and intensity of some natural hazards favors the development of phytosanitary problems (Desprez-Loustau et al 2007;Berggren et al 2009). In addition to these climate factors, human activities are also likely to increase species displacement rates by intentionally or unintentionally dispersing individuals or propagules.…”

Winter survival of Phytophthora alni subsp. alni in aerial tissues of black alder

“…Anderson et al 2004;Bergot et al 2004;Garrett et al 2006;Desprez-Loustau et al 2007;Chakraborty et al 2008;Evans et al 2008;La Porta et al 2008;Pautasso et al 2010). Several fungal diseases in trees can become more devastating because of the following factors: (i) abiotic stresses, such as drought and flooding, are known to predispose trees to several pathogens; (ii) temperature and moisture affect the pathogen sporulation and dispersal, and changes in climatic conditions are likely to favour certain pathogens; (iii) the migration of pathogens triggered by climatic change may increase disease incidence or geographical range when the pathogens encounter new hosts and/or new potential vectors; (iv) new threats may appear either because of a change in the tree species composition or because of invasive species (La Porta et al 2008).…”

“…In this century, the winter temperature can reach from 3.0°C to 4.0°C in Central and Eastern Europe; the average winter temperature can exceed 0°C, and the change in climate can specifically concern the lowest winter minimum temperatures (IPCC 2007). Recent models predict an increase in the distribution and local impact of a range of forest pathogens, including P. cinnamomi (Desprez-Loustau et al 2007). Winter survival is a dominant cue for the development of ink disease caused by this pathogen in oak in Europe (Brasier, Scott 1994;Marçais et al 1996;Bergot et al 2004).…”