Simulated Safety Risk of an Uncoordinated Airborne Self Separation Concept of Operation

Blom, H.A.P.; Obbink, B. Klein; Bakker, G.J.

doi:10.2514/atcq.17.1.63

Cited by 15 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…This means that, for a two-aircraft encounter the LOS, NMAC and MAC probabilities can be lowered as needed by improving the dependability of the A 3 enabling systems. In [9], a similar finding was applied for two-aircraft encounters under the AMFF ConOps.…”

Section: B Two-aircraft Simulation Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To simulate an aircraft density that is about three times the traffic density in one of the busiest en route sectors over Europe in 2005, we set the horizontal size of the PBC box to 62 by 62 n mile, and we simulated eight aircraft per container. This comes down to an aircraft density of 20.8 aircraft per flight level and per square area of 100 by 100 n mile, which is 12.8 times the aircraft density in the example of [35], 1.5 times the maximum density considered in [9], and similar to the maximum density considered in [19].…”

Section: A Dense Random Traffic Scenariomentioning

confidence: 88%

“…For this autonomous Mediterranean free-flight (AMFF) ConOps, in-depth human-in-the-loop simulations have shown [7,8] that pilots are very well able to manage high traffic demands. However, through agent-based modeling and rare-event Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, Blom et al [9] have identified that, in some infrequent cases, the state-based conflict-resolution approach of AMFF asks too much trial and error, by which rare multiaircraft conflicts may pose a too-high safety risk. This also means that the AMFF ConOps is not able to safely accommodate high traffic demands.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Safety Evaluation of Advanced Self-Separation Under Very High En Route Traffic Demand

Blom

Bakker

2015

Journal of Aerospace Information Systems

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Since the "invention" of free flight, the key question is whether airborne self-separation can safely accommodate very high traffic demand. The aim of this paper is to answer this question for en route airspace. Therefore, an advanced airborne self-separation concept of operation is evaluated on safety risk at very high traffic demands. The advanced airborne self-separation concept of operations considered is of the trajectory-based operation type, in the sense that each aircraft manages a conflict-free four-dimensional trajectory intent and broadcasts this to the other aircraft. Complementary to this trajectory-based operation layer, each aircraft makes use of a short-term conflict detection and resolution layer that aims to resolve any remaining problems, such as significant deviations from fourdimensional intents due to wind prediction errors. Safety risk analysis is conducted using advanced techniques in agent-based modeling and rare-event Monte Carlo simulation. The results obtained show that the advanced selfseparation concept of operations considered has a remarkably good collaboration between the trajectory-based operation and the tactical resolution layers: as a result of which, it can safely accommodate very high en route traffic demands.

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Section: B Two-aircraft Simulation Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A Dense Random Traffic Scenariomentioning

confidence: 88%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Safety Evaluation of Advanced Self-Separation Under Very High En Route Traffic Demand

Blom

Bakker

2015

Journal of Aerospace Information Systems

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“…MC simulation of aircraft implies that only a confined volume of airspace can be considered. By using a proper Periodic Boundary Condition (PBC) around such confined volume of airspace, it is possible to virtually simulate an infinite volume of airspace [35]. Applying PBC [36] requires the definition of an infinite, space-filling array of identical copies of a simulation region.…”

Section: G Monte Carlo Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical Models for Air Traffic Conflict and Collision Probability Estimation

Mitici

Blom

2019

IEEE Trans. Intell. Transport. Syst.

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Increasing traffic demands and technological developments provide novel design opportunities for future Air Traffic Management (ATM). In order to evaluate current air traffic operations and future designs, over the past decades several mathematical models have been proposed for air traffic conflict and collision probability estimation. However, few comparative evaluations of these models with respect to their mathematical core exist. Such comparative evaluations are particularly difficult since different authors employ different model definitions, notations and assumptions, even when using the same modeling techniques. The aim of this paper is: i) to present the mathematical core of the existing approaches for air traffic conflict and collision probability estimation using the same body of notations and definitions; ii) to outline the advances in estimating the probability of air traffic conflict and collision using a unified mathematical framework; iii) to various air traffic applications and their use of directed mathematical models for air traffic conflict and collision probability estimation; and iv) to provide insight into the capabilities and restrictions of the mathematical models in the evaluation of future ATM designs.

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“…In this respect, the accelerated Monte Carlo method is similar to recent studies that used rare event Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the collision risk of an uncoordinated airborne self-separation concept. [14][15] Consider failure mode 1. The first step in estimating its probability is to simulate the likelihood that at least one flight is not locatable via ADS-B or SSR in a Monte Carlo simulation.…”

Section: Failure Mode Numbermentioning

confidence: 99%

Accelerated Monte Carlo Simulation for Safety Analysis of the Advanced Airspace Concept

Thipphavong

2010

10th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conference

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Safe separation of aircraft is a primary objective of any air traffic control system. An accelerated Monte Carlo approach was developed to assess the level of safety provided by a proposed next-generation air traffic control system. It combines features of fault tree and standard Monte Carlo methods. It runs more than one order of magnitude faster than the standard Monte Carlo method while providing risk estimates that only differ by about 10%. It also preserves component-level model fidelity that is difficult to maintain using the standard fault tree method. This balance of speed and fidelity allows sensitivity analysis to be completed in days instead of weeks or months with the standard Monte Carlo method. Results indicate that risk estimates are sensitive to transponder, pilot visual avoidance, and conflict detection failure probabilities.

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Simulated Safety Risk of an Uncoordinated Airborne Self Separation Concept of Operation

Cited by 15 publications

References 9 publications

Safety Evaluation of Advanced Self-Separation Under Very High En Route Traffic Demand

Safety Evaluation of Advanced Self-Separation Under Very High En Route Traffic Demand

Mathematical Models for Air Traffic Conflict and Collision Probability Estimation

Accelerated Monte Carlo Simulation for Safety Analysis of the Advanced Airspace Concept

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