Mathematical Models for Air Traffic Conflict and Collision Probability Estimation

Mitici, Mihaela; Blom, H.A.P.

doi:10.1109/tits.2018.2839344

Cited by 45 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 96 publications

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“…More interesting relations between conflicting objectives are shown in Figure 3, plots ( 2) - (7). For example, in plot (6) it is shown that fewer degradation incidents occur (low 𝑁 Inc ) when components are replaced often (high 𝑁 Rep ), i.e., there is a trade-off between 𝑁 Inc and 𝑁 Rep .…”

Section: Relation Between Multiple Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…One main objective of CBM for aircraft is the reduction of maintenance costs [5,6]. Additionally, aircraft maintenance aims to comply with aircraft operational regulations [3,7], to limit the need for unscheduled maintenance tasks [8], to reduce aircraft delays due to maintenance [9], and to utilize the aircraft as much as possible [10]. Given these multiple objectives, it is of interest to understand how they are impacted by maintenance strategies, how they are related to each other, and what are the trade-offs between them.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-objective Analysis of Condition-based Aircraft Maintenance Strategies using Discrete Event Simulation

Lee¹,

Mitici²

2021

2021 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS)

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As aircraft maintenance is transitioning towards datadriven condition-based maintenance (CBM), its cost and performance objectives need to be re-evaluated: how are these objectives related under various CBM strategies?; which objectives are conflicting?; what are the trade-offs between the conflicting objectives?; what is the impact of this transition on aircraft maintenance? We propose a methodology based on discrete-event simulation to analyze CBM of aircraft from the perspective of multiple objectives. The simulation considers an aircraft operations model, systems of multiple, redundant aircraft components, stochastic degradation models for components, and specific CBM strategies. In particular, we analyze two CBM strategies for component replacement, which are based on sensor monitoring and remaining-useful-life prognostics. As objectives for these strategies, we consider the minimization of the number of component replacements, the number of unscheduled replacements, the number of degradation incidents, the delay caused by maintenance, and the mean number of flight cycles to replacements (MCTR). We identify the main conflicting objectives and generate Pareto fronts. We show non-trivial trade-offs between the performance-oriented objectives (the number of degradation incidents and the delay due to maintenance) and cost-oriented objectives (MCTR). In fact, the CBM strategy based on remaining-useful-life prognostics dominates the other strategies in the knee region of the Pareto fronts. This implies that the transition towards data-driven CBM strategies can reduce the cost while maintaining the performance. Moreover, the proposed methodology is readily applicable to analyze general aircraft systems and other maintenance strategies.

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Section: Relation Between Multiple Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-objective Analysis of Condition-based Aircraft Maintenance Strategies using Discrete Event Simulation

Lee¹,

Mitici²

2021

2021 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS)

Self Cite

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“…a) Control signal system: The control signal system for FCTS ensures the efficient organization of flying transportation, allowing flying cars from all participating companies to provided high-quality service, as well as profiting from the service. Through path planning management, TOL sites can be served by flying cars in the event of accidents or path obstructions, or a path re-planning service can be made available for flying cars facing cancellation/unavailability of the previously defined path [55]. Additionally, flying cars can be sent into service rapidly to avoid overcrowding, or even to tend to breakdowns.…”

Section: ) Communication Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flying Car Transportation System: Advances, Techniques, and Challenges

Pan

Alouini

2021

IEEE Access

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Since the development of transport systems, humans have exploited ground-level, belowground, and high-altitude spaces for transportation purposes. However, with the increasing burden of expanding populations and rapid urbanization in recent decades, public transportation systems and freight traffic are suffering huge pressure, plaguing local governments and straining economies. Engineers and researchers have started to re-examine, propose, and develop the underused near-ground spaces (NGS) for transportation purposes. For instance, flying cars, which are not a totally novel idea, aim at solving the traffic congestion problem and releasing the strains on existing city transport networks by utilizing unoccupied NGS. Flying cars differ from traditional grounded transportation systems that are entirely limited by their physical space, such as trains on tracks or automobiles on roads. Flying cars do not occupy or compete for high-altitude spaces used by air traffic for long-distance transfer. As there is limited specific literature on flying cars and flying car transportation systems (FCTS), this paper aims to describe the modern advances, techniques, and challenges of FCTS. We explore the inherent nature of NGS transportation and devise useful proposals to facilitate the construction and commercialization of FCTS. We begin with an introduction to the increasing need for NGS transportation and we address the advantages of using flying cars. Next, we present a brief overview of the history of the development of flying cars in terms of the historic timeline and technique development. Then, we discuss and compare the state of the art in the design of flying cars, including the take-off & landing (TOL) modes, pilot modes, operation modes, and power types, which are related to the adaptability, flexibility & comfort, stability & complexity, and environmental friendliness of flying cars, respectively. Additionally, since large-scale operations of flying cars can improve current transportation problems, we also introduce different facets of the various designs of FCTS, including path and trajectory planning, supporting facilities, and commercial designs. Finally, we discuss the challenges that might arise while developing and commercializing FCTS in terms of safety issues, commercial issues, and ethical issues.

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“…A collision occurs when an aircraft is in contact with another object [1]. Reproducing self-collision incidents through physical experiments is almost impossible because of the uncertainty in the trajectory of the colliding object [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Aircraft Self-Collisions: A Case Study

Lee

Cho²,

Kim³

et al. 2022

Aerospace

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Airborne self-collisions occur primarily in military aircraft because of external stores and are frequently experienced by personnel operating these aircraft. In most cases, objects causing self-collisions are irregularly shaped and unstable. Consequently, the trajectories of these objects are uncertain. A framework for the probabilistic risk analysis of aircraft self-collisions is proposed in this study. Based on the probabilistic trajectory prediction model, methods for estimating the probability of collision (POC) and the corresponding risks were developed. Subsequently, a self-collision event involving an ejected gun shell was analyzed as a case study. A model considering random shell rotation, which continuously changes the drag characteristics and trajectories, was developed. Other uncertain factors associated with the aircraft and shell cases were considered. The most influential factors were selected based on the sensitivity analysis and were then used to calibrate the likelihood of the event using historical data. A Monte Carlo simulation, in conjunction with the probabilistic ballistic model, was performed to evaluate the POC. The POC was used to reflect the risk of engine failure up to the operational limit. The calculated risk indices were objective functions used for the design or operation optimization. Various risk measures were evaluated to reduce the incidence of failure and extend the aircraft’s flight envelope.

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Mathematical Models for Air Traffic Conflict and Collision Probability Estimation

Cited by 45 publications

References 96 publications

Multi-objective Analysis of Condition-based Aircraft Maintenance Strategies using Discrete Event Simulation

Multi-objective Analysis of Condition-based Aircraft Maintenance Strategies using Discrete Event Simulation

Flying Car Transportation System: Advances, Techniques, and Challenges

Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Aircraft Self-Collisions: A Case Study

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