Simulated Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Summer Eurasian Nonuniform Warming since the Mid-1990s

Sun, Xiaoyu; Li, Shuanglin; Hong, Xiaowei; Lu, Riyu

doi:10.1007/s00376-019-8169-z

Cited by 42 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…It should be noted that the teleconnections may be sensitive to the background flows in models as suggested by previous studies (X. Sun et al 2019;Stephan et al 2019); hence, CAM4 partially reproduce the polar-Eurasian pattern and Silk Road pattern (Fig. S5).…”

Section: Possible Modulation Of the Summer Sea Surface Temperature Ovsupporting

confidence: 57%

North Atlantic Modulation of Interdecadal Variations in Hot Drought Events over Northeastern China

Gao

et al. 2020

Journal of Climate

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Based on the long-term reanalysis datasets and the multivariate copula method, this study reveals that the frequency of summer hot drought events (SHDEs) over northeastern China (NEC) shows interdecadal variations during 1925–2010. It is revealed that the summer sea surface temperature (SST) over the North Atlantic has a significant positive correlation with the frequency of SHDEs over NEC on the decadal time scale, indicating a potential influence of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Further analyses indicate that during the positive phases of the AMO, the warming SST over the North Atlantic can trigger a stationary Rossby wave originating from the North Atlantic, which splits into two wave trains propagating along two different routes. One is a zonally orientated wave train that resembles the Silk Road pattern, whereas the other is an arching wave train that resembles the polar–Eurasian pattern. A negative (positive) phase of the Silk Road pattern (polar–Eurasian pattern) may result in the weakened westerly wind along the jet stream, the downward vertical motion, and the anomalous positive geopotential center over NEC, providing favorable conditions for precipitation deficiency and high temperature and resulting in increased SHDEs. Thus, the Silk Road pattern and the polar–Eurasian pattern serve as linkages between the AMO and SHDEs over northeastern China in summer on the interdecadal time scale. Model simulations from CAM4 perturbed with warmer SST in the North Atlantic show precipitation deficiency and high temperature conditions over northeastern China in summer, supporting the potential impacts of the North Atlantic SST on SHDEs over northeastern China. The results suggest that the phase of the AMO should be taken into account in the decadal prediction of SHDEs over northeastern China in summer.

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Section: Possible Modulation Of the Summer Sea Surface Temperature Ovsupporting

confidence: 57%

North Atlantic Modulation of Interdecadal Variations in Hot Drought Events over Northeastern China

Gao

et al. 2020

Journal of Climate

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“…Thus, the substantial consistency between the region of the amplified warming trend and the region of a positive AMO relationship with both the SST and surrounding air temperature implies that the AMO might play a role in inducing the non-uniform warming in the air and sea temperature [ 26 ]. This observation may lead to validation of the AMO mechanisms in shaping summer warming over Europe-Middle East through the SRP [ 3 , 20 ], where the vertical temperature advection throughout the whole troposphere causes this warming.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this analysis, it was revealed that during positive AMO or negative SRP, the air subsidence of the lower to middle troposphere increases, which is conducive to increasing the adiabatic warming, increasing the aridity and hence amplifying the warming trend over the region. The SRP-related air subsidence is due to the anticyclonic circulations in the upper troposphere above the cyclonic circulation on the surface, over a wide part of Europe, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Middle East and North African regions, causing reduced cloud cover and further precipitation, increased downward shortwave radiation, and then increased warming [ 20 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The AMO index that defined as the annual averaged SST anomaly in the North Atlantic basin (0° to 60° N, 75° to 7.5° W) was obtained from www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/timeseries/AMO/ . The SRP is a teleconnection pattern trapped along the Asian upper-tropospheric westerly jet during summer, emanating from North Africa and propagating to East Asia across Europe roughly along 40° N. Following [ 3 , 25 ] and Sun et al [ 20 ], the SRP index is defined as the first leading principal component of the empirical orthogonal function for the 200 Geo-Potential Height (GPH) meridional wind anomalies within the domain (20°–60° N, 0°–150° E) over 37 summers (1982–2017). In this study, all of the datasets are calculated as the summer mean, which indicates the averages over June–July–August (JJA).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This warming is estimated to continue by an additional 0.6 to 0.85°C, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario of 1.5 to 1.78°C (RCP4.5 scenario), 1.75 to 2.18°C (RCP6.0 scenario), and 2.8 to 3.28°C (RCP8.5 scenario), by the end of this century, using the GFDL-CM3 (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) model. However, intense warming trends were identified during the summer over Europe-Middle East (1.02°C) and Northeast Asia (1.08°C) that can be expressed as the difference in surface air temperature in 1997 to 2015 minus 1982 to 1996 [ 3 , 20 ]. Furthermore, the warming extends to the lower middle troposphere as the result of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) shaping the summer surface and upper air temperature through the Silk Road Pattern (SRP) or the circumglobal teleconnection in some studies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Decadal variability and recent summer warming amplification of the sea surface temperature in the Red Sea

et al. 2020

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Under climate change, regional Sea Surface Temperature (SST) changes are a crucial factor affecting marine ecosystems, which thrive only within a certain thermal limit. Thirty-seven years of monthly gridded Optimum Interpolation SST data from 1982 to 2017 were used to investigate the decadal variability of this parameter in the Red Sea during the summer season, in relation to large-scale climate variability. We identified a non-uniform warming trend beginning around the mid-1990s over the whole basin, with a predominant amplified warming over the northern half (0.04°C year -1 ), which is approximately four times higher than the global warming trend, but much weaker warming over southern end (0.01°C year -1 ). It was found that the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Silk Road Pattern (SRP) are shaping the RS SST, since their phase shift concurs with the timing of the significant non-uniform warming over the basin. The AMO triggers the SRP-related vertical and horizontal temperature advection that leads to opposite changes in the SST. We suggest that warming is amplified over the basin due to an overlap with global warming signals. Our results have important implications for interannual and decadal SST predictions based on the predictability of AMO and SRP patterns.

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Profound interdecadal variability of the summer precipitation over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin

Deng,

Li,

et al. 2024

Atmospheric Science Letters

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The upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) are famous for their hydropower generation and water resources in China, relying greatly on precipitation. The UYRB summer precipitation has decreased since the early 2000s and has been exposed to a particularly dry period in the most recent two decades. By analyzing the long‐term variability from the beginning of the 20th Century, we found that the precipitation exhibits a profound periodic interdecadal variation, with a significant cycle of 30–50 years. The interdecadal variability of precipitation is shown to be significantly modulated by both the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), exerting their impact through related circulation anomalies. Moreover, the periodical nature of the UYRB precipitation variation and its correlation with AMO/PDO suggest that the UYRB might enter a wet period in the forthcoming decade, i.e. rich in hydroelectric resources but a high risk of flood.

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Simulated Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Summer Eurasian Nonuniform Warming since the Mid-1990s

Cited by 42 publications

References 29 publications

North Atlantic Modulation of Interdecadal Variations in Hot Drought Events over Northeastern China

North Atlantic Modulation of Interdecadal Variations in Hot Drought Events over Northeastern China

Decadal variability and recent summer warming amplification of the sea surface temperature in the Red Sea

Profound interdecadal variability of the summer precipitation over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin

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