Simulated impacts of climate change and agricultural land use change on surface water quality with and without adaptation management strategies

Mehdi, Bano; Lehner, Bernhard; Gombault, C.; Michaud, A.; Beaudin, Isabelle; Sottile, Marie-France; Blondlot, Anne

doi:10.1016/j.agee.2015.07.019

Cited by 53 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 33 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Both factors have been shown to independently or collectively greatly impact watershed hydrology and/or water quality across a tremendous range of scales, as shown in literally hundreds of studies in existing literature (e.g., Wilson and Weng, 2011;Jha et al, 2006Jha et al, , 2010Secchi et al, 2011;Panagopoulos et al, 2015;Tan et al, 2015;Mehdi et al, 2015a, b). These land use and climate change impacts pose potentially serious issues for specific communities (Kundzewicz et al, 2007) as well as for large regions or whole countries (Heffernan et al, 2014;Howells et al, 2013;Moore et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

Dagnew

Gassman

Schoof

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Modeling impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on surface water quantity and quality provides useful information for planning effective water, environmental and land use policies. Despite the significant impacts of agriculture on water quantity and quality, limited literature exists that describes the combined impacts of agricultural land use change and climate change on future bioenergy crop yields and watershed hydrology. In this study, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) ecohydrological model was used to model the combined impacts of five agricultural land use change scenarios and three downscaled climate pathways (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) that were created from an ensemble of eight atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). These scenarios were implemented in a wellcalibrated SWAT model for the intensively farmed and tiled Raccoon River watershed (RRW) located in western Iowa. The scenarios were executed for the historical baseline, early century, mid-century and late century periods. The results indicate that historical and more corn intensive agricultural scenarios with higher CO 2 emissions consistently result in more water in the streams and greater water quality problems, especially late in the 21st century. Planting more switchgrass, on the other hand, results in less water in the streams and water quality improvements relative to the baseline. For all given agricultural landscapes simulated, all flow, sediment and nutrient outputs increase from early-tolate century periods for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. We also find that corn and switchgrass yields are negatively impacted under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the mid-and late 21st century.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

Dagnew

Gassman

Schoof

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Mixed nutrients emission response reported by Arheimer et al [20], Records et al [21] and Molina-Navaro et al [22] is an effect of diverse flow changes during the projected periods. Very few studies indicate that future climate change is likely to have a negligible impact on single variables like sediment [11,23], TN [24], and NO 3 -N [25]. Notes: Legend: ↑ mostly increase; ↓ mostly decrease; ↓↑ mixed pattern; -no significant changes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Climate Change on Hydrology, Sediment and Nutrient Losses in Two Lowland Catchments in Poland

Marcinkowski

Piniewski

Kardel

et al. 2017

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Future climate change is projected to have significant impact on water resources availability and quality in many parts of the world. The objective of this paper is to assess the effect of projected climate change on water quantity and quality in two lowland catchments (the Upper Narew and the Barycz) in Poland in two future periods (near future: 2021-2050, and far future: 2071-2100). The hydrological model SWAT was driven by climate forcing data from an ensemble of nine bias-corrected General Circulation Models-Regional Climate Models (GCM-RCM) runs based on the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment-European Domain (EURO-CORDEX). Hydrological response to climate warming and wetter conditions (particularly in winter and spring) in both catchments includes: lower snowmelt, increased percolation and baseflow and higher runoff. Seasonal differences in the response between catchments can be explained by their properties (e.g., different thermal conditions and soil permeability). Projections suggest only moderate increases in sediment loss, occurring mainly in summer and winter. A sharper increase is projected in both catchments for TN losses, especially in the Barycz catchment characterized by a more intensive agriculture. The signal of change in annual TP losses is blurred by climate model uncertainty in the Barycz catchment, whereas a weak and uncertain increase is projected in the Upper Narew catchment.

show abstract

“…In the present case, where aggregated discharge and NO The impact of parameter non-uniqueness on the simulation of hydrological and water quality variables has been demonstrated previously (e.g. ; Wilby, 2005;Mehdi et al, 2018). The importance of the model parametrization for the simulation of discharge and NO …”

mentioning

confidence: 85%

“…The land use scenarios showed an almost negligible impact on the simulation of discharge and NO (Wagner et al, 2017;Mehdi et al, 2015b), water quality (Guse et al,15 2015; Mehdi et al, 2015a), or sediment yield (Bieger et al, 2013). Bieger et al (2013) found very low land use change induced increases in discharge for a catchment in China.…”

Section: What Can We As Modelers Learn From Such Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

A comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for discharge and nitrate-nitrogen loads involving multiple discrete model inputs under future changing conditions

Schürz¹,

Hollosi²,

Matulla³

et al. 2018

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Environmental modeling studies aim to infer the impacts on environmental variables that are caused by natural and human-induced changes in environmental systems. Changes in environmental systems are typically implemented as discrete scenarios in environmental models to simulate environmental variables under changing conditions. The scenario development of a model input usually involves several data sources and perhaps other models, that are potential sources of uncertainty. The setup and the parametrization of the implemented environmental model are additional sources of uncertainty for the simulation 5 of environmental variables. Yet, to draw well-informed conclusions from the model simulations it is essential to identify the dominant sources of uncertainty.In two Austrian impact studies the eco-hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate discharge and nitrate-nitrogen (NO In both case studies we employed global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to identify the impact of the scenario inputs, the model 15 setup and the parametrization on the simulation of discharge and NO − 3 -N loads. We accompanied the GSA with a visual analysis of the simulation outputs and their associated uncertainties that resulted from the simulations of the 7000 SWAT model combinations. We present visualizations of the results of the GSA and the simulation uncertainty bands that proved to be powerful diagnostic tools in this study. Based on the GSA we identified climate change and the model parametrization to be the most sensitive model inputs for the simulation of discharge and NO − 3 -N loads in both case studies. In contrast, the impact of the model setup on the simulation of discharge and NO − 3 -N loads was low and the changes in land use and point source emissions were found to have the least impact on the simulated discharge and NO − 3 -N loads. Additionally, the visual analysis of the uncertainty bands illustrated that the precipitation of the climate scenarios dominated the changes in simulation outputs, rather than changes in air temperature 5 in both case studies.

show abstract

Simulated impacts of climate change and agricultural land use change on surface water quality with and without adaptation management strategies

Cited by 53 publications

References 33 publications

Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

Effect of Climate Change on Hydrology, Sediment and Nutrient Losses in Two Lowland Catchments in Poland

A comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for discharge and nitrate-nitrogen loads involving multiple discrete model inputs under future changing conditions

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About