Simulated Electrification of a Small Thunderstorm with Two-Moment Bulk Microphysics

Mansell, Edward R.; Ziegler, Conrad L.; Bruning, Eric C.

doi:10.1175/2009jas2965.1

Cited by 409 publications

(359 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…On the other side, the two-moment NSSL scheme predicts average graupel particle density, allowing this to span the range from frozen drops to low-density graupel (Mansell et al 2010). Given the specific geographical setting of the western Mediterranean Basin, we also sample the CCN uncertainty as the variability of aerosol concentration-depending on the origin of the air mass affecting the area-is clearly influential and not considered by standard tabulated aerosol parameters.…”

Section: B Mps Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparison of Ensemble Strategies for Flash Flood Forecasting: The 12 October 2007 Case Study in Valencia, Spain

Amengual

Carrió

Ravazzani

et al. 2017

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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On 12 October 2007, several flash floods affected the Valencia region, eastern Spain, with devastating impacts in terms of human, social, and economic losses. An enhanced modeling and forecasting of these extremes, which can provide a tangible basis for flood early warning procedures and mitigation measures over the Mediterranean, is one of the fundamental motivations of the international Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) program. The predictability bounds set by multiple sources of hydrological and meteorological uncertainty require their explicit representation in hydrometeorological forecasting systems. By including local convective precipitation systems, short-range ensemble prediction systems (SREPSs) provide a state-of-the-art framework to generate quantitative discharge forecasts and to cope with different sources of external-scale (i.e., external to the hydrological system) uncertainties. The performance of three distinct hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPSs) for the small-sized Serpis River basin is examined as a support tool for early warning and mitigation strategies. To this end, the FlashFlood Event-Based Spatially Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Transformation-Water Balance (FEST-WB) model is driven by ground stations to examine the hydrological response of this semiarid and karstic catchment to heavy rains. The use of a multisite and novel calibration approach for the FEST-WB parameters is necessary to cope with the high nonlinearities emerging from the rainfall-runoff transformation and heterogeneities in the basin response. After calibration, FEST-WB reproduces with remarkable accuracy the hydrological response to intense precipitation and, in particular, the 12 October 2007 flash flood. Next, the flood predictability challenge is focused on quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). In this regard, three SREPS generation strategies using the WRF Model are analyzed. On the one side, two SREPSs accounting for 1) uncertainties in the initial conditions (ICs) and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) and 2) physical parameterizations are evaluated. An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is also designed to test the ability of ensemble data assimilation methods to represent key mesoscale uncertainties from both IC and subscale processes. Results indicate that accounting for diversity in the physical parameterization schemes provides the best probabilistic high-resolution QPFs for this particular flash flood event. For low to moderate precipitation rates, EnKF and pure multiple physics approaches render undistinguishable accuracy for the test situation at larger scales. However, only the multiple physics QPFs properly drive the HEPS to render the most accurate flood warning signals. That is, extreme precipitation values produced by these convective-scale precipitation systems anchored by complex orography are better forecast when accounting just for uncertainties in the physical parameterizations. These findings contribute to the identification of ensemble strategies ...

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Section: B Mps Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparison of Ensemble Strategies for Flash Flood Forecasting: The 12 October 2007 Case Study in Valencia, Spain

Amengual

Carrió

Ravazzani

et al. 2017

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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“…Additionally, the existence and nature of the lower positive charge center has a significant influence on the occurrence of CG flashes (Jacobson and Krider 1976). When there is a large positive charge center at low altitude above ground level, this can also inhibit the production of negative CG flashes (Nag and Rakov 2009;Mansell et al 2010). Storms that exhibit inverted and/or complex charge structures frequently have high IC flash rates, discourage the production of negative CG flashes, and encourage the production of positive CG flashes within the convective region of the storm Rutledge 1998, 2003;Wiens et al 2005;Carey and Buffalo 2007;Qie et al 2009;Bruning et al 2014;Fuchs et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sections 7.20 and 7.21 in MacGorman and Rust (1998) provide additional details. Helpful modeling work on this topic is presented in Mansell et al (2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Intracloud Lightning Fraction in the Contiguous United States

et al. 2017

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This work addresses the long-term relative occurrence of cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC; no attachment to ground) flashes for the contiguous United States (CONUS). It expands upon an earlier analysis by Boccippio et al. who employed 4-yr datasets provided by the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD). Today, the duration of the NLDN historical dataset has more than tripled, and OTD data can be supplemented with data from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). This work is timely, given the launch of GOES-16, which includes the world's first geostationary lightning mapper that will observe total lightning (IC and CG) over the Americas and adjacent ocean regions.

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“…One of those four options is option zero (mp_physics=0), which means that no microphysics is used. Another one is the NSSL 2-moment 4-ice scheme (Mansell et al, 2010) with predicted CCN (mp_physics=18), which is suggested for use with idealized cases rather than real ones. The remaining two are spectral bin microphysics, i.e., fast (Khain et al, 2010), and full (Khain et al, 2004) versions of HUJI (Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel), i.e., 20 mp_physics=30 and mp_physics=32, respectively, which are beyond the scope of this study.…”

Section: Mp Schemesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Reisner et al (1998;RRB98) type-MP5: Ferrier (New Eta) Scheme (NOAA, 2001), MP7: Goddard Scheme (Tao et al, 1989), MP8: Thompson Scheme (Thompson et al, 2008), and MP28: AerosolAware Thompson Scheme (Gilmore et al, 2014); 5 4. Ziegler (1985) type-MP17: NSSL 2-moment Scheme (Mansell et al, 2010), MP19: NSSL 1-moment 7-class Scheme, and MP21: NSSL 1-moment 6-class Scheme (Gilmore et al, 2004).…”

Section: Mp Schemesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Microphysics parameterization sensitivity of the WRF Model version 3.1.7 to extreme precipitation: evaluation of the 1997 New Year’s flood of California

Tan

2016

Preprint

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Abstract.Providing high accuracy in quantitative extreme precipitation forecasting (QEPF) is still a challenge. California is vulnerable to extreme precipitation, which occurs due to atmospheric rivers and might be more intense with climate change. Accordingly, this study is an attempt to evaluate the extreme precipitation forecasting performance of a QPF model, the Weather Research and Forecast 10 Model, version 3.1.7, for the extreme precipitation event that caused the 1997 New Year's flood in IntroductionThe IPCC noted that the magnitude, frequency, and duration of extreme events may increase as a result of climate change (2012). This impact could be significant for regions such as California where drought intensities also tend to increase and excessive amounts of precipitation should therefore be saved for future periods of drought. When drought causes these regions to take one step back, extreme 10 precipitation events can take them two steps forward. Hence, smart and new water management strategies should be developed to advance climate change adaptation. Some of the solutions might be related to improving the time and space problem of quantitative extreme precipitation forecasting (QEPF). The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) (Skamarock et al., 2008) has been widely used to increase resilience to extreme precipitation events in California (Jankov et al., 2007; 15 Jankov et al., 2009; Tan, 2010;Eiserloh and Chiao, 2014), which are closely correlated with atmospheric river events (Tan, 2010). Atmospheric rivers are also expected to increase in terms of both frequency and intensity with climate change (Dettinger, 2011). Generally, for precipitation simulations, a combination of the microphysical, cumulus parameterization and the planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes is mainly evaluated using the WRF Model, although all of the 20 parameterization schemes and processes have effects on precipitation occurrence. Moreover, microphysical schemes play a significant role if the horizontal resolution of the interested domain is finer than 9 km. Recent studies have been conducted for the evaluation of the microphysics schemes of the WRF Model with respect to winter precipitation in California, with a focus on atmospheric river phenomena (Jankov et al., 2007;Jankov et al., 2009; Tan, 2010;Jankov et al., 2011;Han et al., 2013), 25 which is the reason for the extreme precipitation that occurs along the West coast of the US (Zhu and Newell, 1998;Ralph et al., 2004; Tan, 2010;Houze, 2012). Jankov et al. (2007) Hereupon, the main goal of this study is to evaluate hourly quantitative extreme precipitation forecasting (QEPF) performance of the WRF Model for the most extreme atmospheric river event in the history of California. The 1997 New Year's flood, which occurred between December 26, 1996, and 20 January 3, 1997, has been ranked as the fifth of California's top 15 weather events in the 1900s (URL-1) and is still the major impactful atmospheric river event of the state. Thus, the 1997 New Year...

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Simulated Electrification of a Small Thunderstorm with Two-Moment Bulk Microphysics

Cited by 409 publications

References 64 publications

A Comparison of Ensemble Strategies for Flash Flood Forecasting: The 12 October 2007 Case Study in Valencia, Spain

A Comparison of Ensemble Strategies for Flash Flood Forecasting: The 12 October 2007 Case Study in Valencia, Spain

The Intracloud Lightning Fraction in the Contiguous United States

Microphysics parameterization sensitivity of the WRF Model version 3.1.7 to extreme precipitation: evaluation of the 1997 New Year’s flood of California

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