SimSmokeFinn: How far can tobacco control policies move Finland toward tobacco-free 2040 goals?

Abstract

The model shows that significant inroads to reducing smoking prevalence and premature mortality can be achieved through tax increases, a high-intensity media campaign complete with programmes to encourage cessation, a comprehensive cessation treatment programme, stronger health warnings, and enforcement of youth access laws. Other policies will be needed to further reduce tobacco use.

Theoretical impacts of a range of major tobacco retail outlet reduction interventions: modelling results in a country with a smoke-free nation goal

“…The demand reduction effect size of these cost increases was determined using age group-specific price elasticity for cigarettes. Elasticities were based on an overall price elasticity of demand for tobacco in New Zealand (−0.47 for manufactured cigarettes over the 2002–2011 period),23 albeit using the age gradient pattern as used in the SimSmoke model,24 and an assumption that the prevalence elasticity is around half that of the overall demand elasticity (as per a recent review by IARC25). This gave final age group-specific elasticities in the range −0.10 to −0.38 for smoking prevalence.…”

Smoking-related deaths averted due to three years of policy progress

“…2,22,23 The SimSmoke model has been validated for four states of the United States of America and more than 20 countries. [5][6][7][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20]23,24 Table 1 summarizes policies and effect sizes based on expert panels and published literature reviews. 23 We provide upper and lower bounds for effect sizes based on variability estimates from our previous work.…”

Modelling the implications of regular increases in tobacco taxation in the tobacco endgame

“…To put this into perspective, modelling by Levy et al 4 indicates that an increase in tax to 70% of the retail price (the WHO's MPOWER recommendation3) could reduce smoking prevalence to 17% in Finland, 20% in the Netherlands,5 21% in Ireland6 and 25% in Germany7 by 2030 (see online supplementary table S1).…”