Simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic prognosis under quarantine and estimation of quarantine effectiveness

Džiugys, Algis; Skarbalius, Gediminas; Misiulis, Edagaras; Navakas, Robertas

doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110162

Cited by 18 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 11 publications

(11 reference statements)

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“…Ever since COVID-19 came, many researchers [10] , [11] , [12] , [13] , [14] , [15] , [16] , [17] , [18] , [19] , [20] , [21] , [22] , [23] , [24] have been formulating and using different mathematical models as a way to explore the dynamical behavior of a Corona virus disease. In all of the research articles cited therein, mathematical models were based on integer-order derivatives involving some restrictions on the order of ODE’s.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To control the spread of epidemic diseases, many researchers are attracted to develop mathematical models [10] , [11] , [12] , [13] , [14] , [15] , [16] dealing with quarantine strategies. A several number of articles [17] , [18] , [19] , [20] , [21] , [22] , [23] , [24] have been published recently on the effectiveness of implemented quarantine program. It is worth mentioning that the most effective and a safe way to control the spread of Corona infection is the prospective quarantine of exposed humans.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Numerical analysis of Atangana-Baleanu fractional model to understand the propagation of a novel corona virus pandemic

Butt

Ahmad

Rafiq

et al. 2022

Alexandria Engineering Journal

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In this manuscript, we formulated a new nonlinear SEIQR fractional order pandemic model for the Corona virus disease (COVID-19) with Atangana-Baleanu derivative. Two main equilibrium points of the proposed model are stated. Threshold parameter for the model using next generation technique is computed to investigate the future dynamics of the disease. The existence and uniqueness of solution is proved using a fixed point theorem. For the numerical solution of fractional model, we implemented a newly proposed Toufik-Atangana numerical scheme to validate the importance of arbitrary order derivative and our obtained theoretical results. It is worth mentioning that fractional order derivative provides much deeper information about the complex dynamics of Corona model. Results obtained through the proposed scheme are dynamically consistent and good in agreement with the analytical results. To draw our conclusions, we explore a complete quantitative analysis of the given model for different quarantine levels. It is claimed through numerical simulations that pandemic could be eradicated faster if a human community selfishly adopts mandatory quarantine measures at various coverage levels with proper awareness. Finally, we have executed the joint variability of all classes to understand the effectiveness of quarantine policy on human population.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical analysis of Atangana-Baleanu fractional model to understand the propagation of a novel corona virus pandemic

Butt

Ahmad

Rafiq

et al. 2022

Alexandria Engineering Journal

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“…To prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2, quarantines and city lockdowns have been employed by many countries, and have proven to be effective (Cui et al, 2020;Džiugys et al, 2020). However, quarantine strategies severely interfere with economic development worldwide (Kanitkar, 2020;Nicola et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is it Safe to Reopen Theaters During the COVID-19 Pandemic?

Liang

Jiang

Shao

et al. 2021

Front. Built Environ.

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Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is spreading globally, and its high transmission speed and mortality rate are severely interfering with people’s normal lives and the economy. Governments are now reopening their economies; however, the opening of theaters has been delayed, owing to their (often) crowded audiences and potentially higher infection risk. To determine whether it is safe to reopen theaters, in this study, the transport of contaminants released by an infected person in a theater hall with an overhead air supply system is analyzed numerically. The infection risks are calculated for occupants at various distances from the infected person in different directions and with/without wearing masks based on a revised Wells-Riley model, and under different supply air states and locations of the infected person. The results show that, first, the probabilities of infection in return air with filtration and all-fresh-air operations are decreased by 39.8 and 55.6%, respectively, as compared when the return air is not filtered. Second, the probabilities of infection for audiences sitting nine seats away from the infected person on the right, right-back, and back sides are 84.9–92.3%, 37.3–74.0%, and 36.3–72.0% lower, respectively, than those for audiences sitting one-seat away from the infected person. In addition, sitting in separate rows can reduce the maximum probability by 7.4–68.3%. Third, the probability of infection can be reduced by 93.7% after all the audiences wear masks with efficiencies of 75%. Fourth, the probability of infection can be controlled under a relatively safe range even though the quanta emission rate is 30 or 50 quanta/h, and even with two infected people in unfavorable seats. Thus, theaters can be safely reopened under return air filtration or all fresh air operations, and when audiences are sitting in separate seats and wearing masks.

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“…The different studies considered some factors directly whereas the other factors were based on certain assumptions. Researchers have tried to estimate the effectiveness of quarantine protocols (Dziugys 2020 ). Declining trend of Covid-19 in Italy and projection for the world was also reported (Martelloni and Martelloni 2020 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sen's Innovative Method for Trend Analysis of Epidemic: A Case Study of Covid-19 Pandemic in India

Dauji

2021

Trans Indian Natl. Acad. Eng.

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Analysis of trend of epidemiological data helps to appreciate the progression of an epidemic and to develop monitoring and control strategies by the government agencies. Sen's Innovative Method suggests a graphical analysis, which can overcome many limitations of data such as short length, non-Gaussian nature, skewness or serial correlation. In this article, this method is applied for the first time on epidemiological data. For the case study, Covid-19 or SARS-CoV-2 data from India were employed. The results show that Sen's Innovative Method is capable of indicating the shift in epidemiological trend quite efficiently, before it is reflected in the time series or moving average plots. The graphical analysis worked particularly well in comparing the trends of monthly data. It is concluded that this method would be especially suitable for monitoring the epidemiological trend by breaking up the data into smaller segments, as was illustrated in the study.

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Simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic prognosis under quarantine and estimation of quarantine effectiveness

Cited by 18 publications

References 11 publications

Numerical analysis of Atangana-Baleanu fractional model to understand the propagation of a novel corona virus pandemic

Numerical analysis of Atangana-Baleanu fractional model to understand the propagation of a novel corona virus pandemic

Is it Safe to Reopen Theaters During the COVID-19 Pandemic?

Sen's Innovative Method for Trend Analysis of Epidemic: A Case Study of Covid-19 Pandemic in India

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